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1111. OECD — Inflation Prospects

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

1112. Globalization, Marginalization and Development

Author:
S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper surveys issues related to globalization, and the obstacles to the successful integration of vulnerable economies. For many developing countries, the positive benefits of the increased globalization that has been taking place since around 1980 remain distant and elusive. The economies of many countries in the developing world remain extremely vulnerable to domestic and external shocks. They have, effectively, become marginalized from the world system. To a great extent, the obstacles to the successful participation of vulnerable developing economies in the international system are rooted in the causes of their underdevelopment and poor economic performance. Nevertheless, the new rules of the game and the international economic environment prevalent since about 1980 following accelerated globalization, leaves them vulnerable in novel ways. Developing in the arrangements for conducting multilateral trade and technology transfer have left nations in the South more vulnerable than in the past. The ability to conduct independent macroeconomic policy is severely constrained. Nations are more reliant on volatile international capital markets, for finance and investment; many developing countries are completely eschewed by international private capital markets. The problem of poverty in many developing countries seems to have been exacerbated following globalization. When we consider the obstacles to the meaningful participation of vulnerable developing economies in the international system, many are domestic in origin, but external factors beyond the control of these countries play an important part as well. Among the former are poorly designed policies to promote growth on the supply-side, macroeconomic mismanagement on the aggregate demand side and institutional failure. In the latter category protectionist tendencies in the North are the most important factor. Many of these appear in the guise of concerns for environmental and labour standards. Globalization does, however, offer new possibilities to developing countries; particularly because shifts in the international division of labour, as well as technological innovations, could favour the South.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Third World

1113. Borders, Territoriality and the Military in the Third Millennium

Author:
Peter van Ham
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Under the contradictory impact of globalization, regionalism and nationalism, the importance of borders is both declining and increasing—but above all it is changing. In some cases, it is declining and borders are becoming more permeable as regions integrate. In others, the salience of borders is growing as a contribution to national identity and as a protection of scarce natural resources. Both regional and national borders are, moreover, increasingly challenged by the rapid growth of activities and forces which are, by their very nature, non-territorial, tendentially rendering borders irrelevant. All these developments have military implications which are explored in the paper, including the changing role of border and territorial defence, transnational military threats to national security and 'non-territorial warfare'. A special emphasis is placed on the geopolitical implications of a defensive restructuring of the armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Globalization, Nationalism, Politics, and Sovereignty