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71. Escape from the Commodity Trap: Will the Production Transformation Sustain Productivity, Growth and Jobs?

Author:
John Zysman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The emerging transformation of the production of goods and services is dramatically altering what is produced, where, how, and who captures the value. It creates opportunities and challenges. Part I of this essay examines the transformation of production and its acceleration by Cloud Computing. A first argument is that the transformation of production, including both manufacturing and ICT-enabled services should be our focus. A second argument is that ICT enabled services are a source of distinct value in the economy. Third, it considers the distinct and contradictory challenges facing manufacturing. The fourth argument is that the transformation of production will be accelerated by the emergence of Cloud Computing as the next Information Technology Platform. Part II of the essay makes a few focused policy suggestions and considers several issues policy makers need to consider as they frame policy. The emphasis is on the role of next generation tools and competencies of “places”. The crucial policy question is how to nudge that transformation in the advanced countries toward higher value added, higher skilled, higher wage solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Brazil and Mexico: Hope or hype?

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and Felipe Trigos
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Key points in this Outlook: Key Latin American governments, such as Brazil and Mexico, must adopt economic, fiscal, and energy policies that will maximize job creation, sustainable growth, and energy self-sufficiency. The performance of Latin American economies has a disproportionate effect on US prosperity, heightening the costs of the Obama administration’s indifference toward the region. The American economy will benefit from more vigor and vision as US policy encourages economic partnerships with Latin America that cultivate a healthy private sector, energy interdependence, and greater competitiveness in a global market.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Mexico

73. Do Recessions Affect Potential Output?

Author:
Jane T. Haltmaier
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A number of previous studies have looked at the effect of financial crises on actual output several years beyond the crisis. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the growth of potential output also is affected by recessions, whether or not they include financial crises. Trend per capita output growth is calculated using HP filters, and average growth is compared for the two years preceding a recession, the two years immediately following a recession peak, and the two years after that. Panel regressions are run to determine whether characteristics of recessions, including depth, length, extent to which they are synchronized across countries, and whether or not they include a financial crisis, can explain the cumulative four-year loss in the level of potential output following an output peak preceding a recession. The main result is that the depth of a recession has a significant effect on the loss of potential for advanced countries, while the length is important for emerging markets. These results imply that the Great Recession might have resulted in declines in trend output growth averaging about 3 percent for the advanced economies, but appear to have had little effect on emerging market trend growth.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Global Markets, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Friends or Foes? The Stock Price Impact of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments and the Price of Keeping Secrets

Author:
Jason Kotter and Uger Lel
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the stock price impact of 163 announcements of Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) investments. We document an average positive risk-adjusted return of 2.1 percent for target firms during two days surrounding SWF acquisition announcements. The announcement effect is both statistically and economically significant. A multivariate analysis shows that the degree of transparency of SWF activities is an important determinant of the market reaction, and both the SWF and the existing shareholders of the target firm benefit from improved SWF disclosure. In addition, target firms’ profitability, growth, and governance do not change significantly in the three-year period following the SWF investment relative to a control sample. These results are robust to a battery of tests. Overall, our findings suggest that SWF investments convey a positive signal to market participants about the target firm, increased SWF transparency
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Financial Markets, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus