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Begin New Search Topic Global Markets Publication Year within 25 Years

21. This Time is Different. The "COVID-Shock" and Future of the Global Oil Market

Author:
Giuliano Garavini
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Oil markets are facing a perfect storm. The scissors of supply and demand are moving against one another, generating increasing pain on the oil industry and the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand could drop from 100 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2019 to nearly 80 mdb in 2020.1 If confirmed, this would be single biggest demand shock since petroleum started its race to become the most important energy source in the world.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Global Markets, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Global Focus

22. Global value chains and the removal of trade protection

Author:
Chad P. Bown, Aksel Erbahar, and Maurizio Zanardi
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper examines how trade protection is affected by changes in the value-added content of production arising through global value chains (GVCs). Exploiting a new set of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules adopted in 1995 that impose an exogenously timed requirement for countries to reevaluate their previously imposed trade protection, the authors adopt an instrumental variables strategy and identify the causal effect of GVC integration on the likelihood that a trade barrier is removed. Using a newly constructed dataset of protection removal decisions involving 10 countries, 41 trading partners, and 18 industries over 1995–2013, they find that bilateral industry-specific domestic value-added growth in foreign production significantly raises the probability of removing a duty. The results are not limited to imports from China but are only found for the protection decisions of high-income countries. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that rapid GVC growth in the 2000s freed almost a third of the trade flows subject to the most common temporary restrictions (i.e., antidumping) applied by high-income countries in 2006.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Finance, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices. Five years ago, U.S. shale production costs were so high that whenever oil prices dropped, the impact was felt first and foremost by American producers. Many commentators and media sources assume that is still the case, but the situation has changed dramatically. A recent IMF report with the dry title “The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region” listed the “breakeven price” for various sources of crude. Naturally, Gulf oil had the lowest cost at $18 per barrel, but the shocker was that U.S. shale came in second place at $22—50 percent below the average deepwater project, 80 percent below Canadian oil sands, and 90 percent below Russian onshore projects. Since costs vary widely, some projects presumably have a much lower breakeven price and some much higher, but the general findings are nonetheless striking. If the IMF is correct, then U.S. production should not be counted out, since the cost fundamentals are on its side. To be sure, the current market structure is not on U.S. shale’s side. Small U.S. producers have to raise money on financial markets and cannot rely on the deep government pockets available to producers in Russia and OPEC states. As a result, many are staring at a very dire situation.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Global Markets, Business, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

24. The Impact of Disintegration Dynamics on EU Trade Policy: An Institutional Analysis

Author:
Konstantinos J. Hazakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Safeguarding access to international markets requires an effective EU international trade policy. Equally important, preserving an open, rules-based world trading system presupposes strong EU capability as well as consensus of EU states on the scope and targets of EU international trade policy. The paper presents a policy oriented analytical framework of EU international trade policy taking into consideration the impact of disintegration dynamics and emerging trade protectionism. Initially, the analysis sets the problem while section two offers the major tenets of the politicization of EU international trade policy. Section three presents the key arguments of the institutional analysis on the issue while section four analyses the content of an alternative policy framework for understanding disintegration - EU trade policy interaction. Section five concludes and reaches useful policy implications. It is suggested that there is a need for more Europe on international trade meaning enhanced, effective and inclusive EU trade institutional action.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Global Markets, Rule of Law, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

25. Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools described in our earlier work (Hassan et al., 2019, 2020), we develop text- based measures of the costs, benefits, and risks listed firms in the US and over 80 other countries associate with the spread of Covid-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from an epidemic disease and which are most affected by the associated uncertainty as a disease spreads in a region or around the world. As Covid-19 spreads globally in the first quarter of 2020, we find that firms’ primary concerns relate to the collapse of demand, increased uncertainty, and disruption in supply chains. Other important concerns relate to capacity reductions, closures, and employee welfare. By contrast, financing concerns are mentioned relatively rarely. We also identify some firms that foresee opportunities in new or disrupted markets due to the spread of the disease. Finally, we find some evidence that firms that have experience with SARS or H1N1 have more positive expectations about their ability to deal with the coronavirus outbreak.
Topic:
Economics, Infectious Diseases, Global Markets, Finance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. In Dire Straits? Implications of U.S.-Iran Tensions for the Global Oil Market

Author:
Ilan Goldenberg, Kaleigh Thomas, and Jessica Schwed
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
In recent months, Iran has responded to rising tensions with the United States—particularly the US launch of the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran—by attacking oil tankers and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region around the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait). These actions have been designed to signal to the United States, the Gulf states, and the international community that the American strategy of strangling Iran economically will not be cost-free, and to Saudi Arabia in particular that it is highly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the implications of Iran’s efforts merit close scrutiny and analysis. This study was designed to examine three scenarios for military conflict between Iran and the United States and assess the potential impacts on global oil prices—as one specific representation of the immediate economic impact of conflict—as well as broader strategic implications.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

27. Working in Export Manufacturing: A Blessing or a Curse?

Author:
Francesco Amodio and Andreas Menzel
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
In popular opinion, manufacturing in developing countries is often associated with low wages, dangerous working conditions, lax regulation, and worker exploitation. Research has shown that factories producing for export or based on FDI pay wages equivalent to other sectors, have higher labour standards, and employ large numbers of female workers. However, there are reported adverse effects on well-being, and consequences for young workers. While skepticism remains on buyers’ ability and interest in improving labour standards, there is some evidence of improvement through safety councils and more skilled management. Fears of consequences for competitiveness have been largely unfounded.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Exports, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Oil Market Swings: Shale and Geo-politics

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes possible future directions for the global oil market, against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Oil, Global Markets, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Middle East

29. US-Southeast Asia Trade is Increasing, but so are Deficits

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Conventional narratives are either supported by facts or overcome them. Recent increased trade flows between the US and the ten economies of Southeast Asia suggest that the predominant narrative of the commercial displacement of the United States by China in Southeast Asia is incorrect. However, the United States’s growing trade deficits and shrinking surpluses with Southeast Asia do bolster an American mercantilist narrative that bilateral deficits are an economic loss for the US caused by Southeast Asian governments’ unfair trade policies.
Topic:
Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

30. US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain

Author:
Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The terms of the US-China trade war change often, but the tariff escalations have inflicted documented economic damage on both countries. Expanding the conflict will only increase the damage and reverberate across the world economy. This Policy Brief uses a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to analyze three scenarios that could unfold in coming months. The first scenario is the current situation (as of June 2019). Two additional scenarios assume implementation of proposed US tariffs and Chinese responses. The models project the situation after the two countries and the rest of the world adjust across a time horizon of three to five years. For the United States, higher tariffs raise prices and reduce demand for consumers and producers. For China, the tariffs raise the prices of consumer goods but have less direct impact on producers, because the Chinese have exempted some intermediate inputs. US exports and imports decline under all three scenarios. But China can successfully divert its exports away from the United States and escape maximum economic damage.
Topic:
Economics, Global Markets, Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America