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12. Technological Disruption in the Global Economy
- Author:
- Commission on Global Economic Transformation
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Technology has become the most powerful disruptive force in our economy. It bears on the future of work, competition, market power, and national security, and it binds the other major areas of our commission’s investigation: macroeconomics and finance, globalization, and climate change. In essence, technological progress propels global economic transformation. Our gathering on February 6, 2019 brought economists together with leading voices from academia, labor, private industry, and the nonprofit/NGO sector. We heard from industry leaders with deep roots and history in the Silicon Valley technology revolution, academics who have also spent time in the policy arena, and from individuals who are already considering new models and approaches to digital rights and the future of work. Our discussion was by no means exhaustive or conclusive, but we attempted to harness the group’s collective wisdom to address some of the most vexing questions of our day. This document is intended to inform our commissioners as they develop CGET’s final report and to share our timely conversation with policymakers and the general public. Fomenting multidisciplinary, critical discourse is one of the most important responsibilities of this initiative, and we sincerely thank the staff at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), our dedicated commissioners, and our outside thought leaders for helping us to promote this dialogue.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, Digital Economy, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
13. US-Southeast Asia Trade is Increasing, but so are Deficits
- Author:
- Malcolm Cook
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Conventional narratives are either supported by facts or overcome them. Recent increased trade flows between the US and the ten economies of Southeast Asia suggest that the predominant narrative of the commercial displacement of the United States by China in Southeast Asia is incorrect. However, the United States’s growing trade deficits and shrinking surpluses with Southeast Asia do bolster an American mercantilist narrative that bilateral deficits are an economic loss for the US caused by Southeast Asian governments’ unfair trade policies.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
14. In Dire Straits? Implications of U.S.-Iran Tensions for the Global Oil Market
- Author:
- Ilan Goldenberg, Kaleigh Thomas, and Jessica Schwed
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security
- Abstract:
- In recent months, Iran has responded to rising tensions with the United States—particularly the US launch of the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran—by attacking oil tankers and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region around the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait). These actions have been designed to signal to the United States, the Gulf states, and the international community that the American strategy of strangling Iran economically will not be cost-free, and to Saudi Arabia in particular that it is highly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the implications of Iran’s efforts merit close scrutiny and analysis. This study was designed to examine three scenarios for military conflict between Iran and the United States and assess the potential impacts on global oil prices—as one specific representation of the immediate economic impact of conflict—as well as broader strategic implications.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
15. Working in Export Manufacturing: A Blessing or a Curse?
- Author:
- Francesco Amodio and Andreas Menzel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- In popular opinion, manufacturing in developing countries is often associated with low wages, dangerous working conditions, lax regulation, and worker exploitation. Research has shown that factories producing for export or based on FDI pay wages equivalent to other sectors, have higher labour standards, and employ large numbers of female workers. However, there are reported adverse effects on well-being, and consequences for young workers. While skepticism remains on buyers’ ability and interest in improving labour standards, there is some evidence of improvement through safety councils and more skilled management. Fears of consequences for competitiveness have been largely unfounded.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Global Markets, Economic growth, Exports, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. Making Korea Grow Again: Rebalancing the Moon Jae-in Economic Agenda
- Author:
- Choong Yong Ahn
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea has taken a two-pronged approach to ensure urgently needed job creation and inclusive growth. Although measures towards each set of economic policies have been implemented since Moon took office in May 2017, what’s often referred to as “incomeled growth” has been prioritized over innovative growth. The income-led growth model is largely driven by domestic consumption through pro-labor distributional policies including a wage hike to raise the disposable income of low- and middleincome individuals, thereby triggering equity with growth. Focused more on the supply side, the innovative growth model encourages startups to create jobs and innovate. It is a great challenge for Korea to pursue growth and equity through both sets of policies. After a year in office, the Moon administration’s economic agenda, often referred to as J-nomics, has not fully produced the intended policy objectives in terms of job creation and growth. To mitigate a declining potential growth rate and pursue robust and inclusive growth, the twin policies need to be rebalanced, reprioritized, and interconnected in a mutually reinforcing manner to empower the private sector to play a bigger role. As a mid-sized open economy, Korea requires global market competitiveness on the supply side to create decent jobs by buoying entrepreneurship and innovation. Structural reforms in the labor market combined with deregulations necessary for the advent of disruptive 4th-industrial-revolution technologies must be expedited. Furthermore, a new business ecosystem in which win-win collaborations between globally-oriented conglomerates and small businesses must be encouraged to replace a zero-sum business culture.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, and Economic growth
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Korea
17. The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?
- Author:
- Olivier Appert
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
18. Explaining Globalization Scepticism
- Author:
- Erik Lundsgaarde
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Critical public attitudes toward economic globalization reflect a response to different facets of globalization and varied consequences of international market integration for individuals. The distribution of benefits and losses related to globalization provides a starting point for numerous studies of attitudes toward economic integration. Individuals perceive globalization’s benefits differently depending on their sector of employment or level of educational attainment, among other factors. In addition to these explanations, attention to the institutions and policies that influence how governments engage with globalization and manage its domestic consequences can also inform the analysis of why scepticism to economic integration varies across national settings. This report reviews academic literature dealing with attitudes toward globalization and the linkages between globalization and national political processes to situate the extent of globalization scepticism in Denmark alongside experiences in France and Germany. It provides an overview of trends in attitudes toward globalization in these countries and examines possible drivers of the trends.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Governance, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, and Denmark
19. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2017: the year in politics
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, David Cadier, Isabelle Facon, Clémentine Fauconnier, Marie-Hélène Mandrillon, Anaïs Marin, Dominique Menu, and Ioulia Shukan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Global Markets, Finance, Europeanization, Memory, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, and European Union
20. Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Global Experiences, Challenges, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and K. Agha
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- To ensure the longterm success and appeal of energy efficiency, key international efforts could include: Increasing international cooperation to transfer best implementation practices. Harmonizing international financing procedures, for simpler access to financing sources for country- level energy efficiency programs. Supporting improved certification of energy efficiency equipment, through international recognized energy efficiency certification agencies.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus