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101. The Scramble for the Eastern Mediterranean: Energy and Geopolitics

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Over the past few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become a major hotspot for both natural gas and geopolitical competition. Natural gas discoveries in the last decade have attracted growing interest from regional countries and beyond. However, recent escalations in tensions and outright confrontations suggest that competition goes beyond the scramble for energy. Indeed, natural gas is just one of the factors that contribute to shaping security and geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has emerged as a crucial strategic area in the broader Mediterranean and the Middle East. Moving from the analysis of these interconnected factors, this Report examines the strategy and the plethora of interests of regional and international players, as well as the interplay between cooperative and competitive dynamics in the region. What are the geopolitical, security, and energy interests of the countries involved? What are the implications on the regional security context of the moves and policies of regional and international powers?
Topic:
Natural Resources, Geopolitics, Gas, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Mediterranean

102. Natural Gas in South-east Asia: Key Trends and Long-term Outlook

Author:
Luca Franza and Beni Suryadi
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Given the increasing gas demand and declining domestic supply, countries in South-east Asia are bracing themselves to become net gas importers and are studying ways to enhance their security of supply. LNG will be the preferred source of gas, thanks to its flexibility and widespread availability at competitive prices in global markets. However, concerns related to excessive gas import dependency might reduce appetite for additional gas usage in South-east Asia. This could mean that coal would have a larger role, which is bad news for climate change. Countries in the ASEAN region need policies to achieve balanced, reliable, secure and cost-effective energy supply, a pre-requisite for the region’s ambitious economic development plans. A combination of solid local policies, investment by international players in the region and stability in global gas markets would enable gas to play a positive role in South-east Asia, which is a fast-growing region and an increasingly important catalyst of global energy market developments. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, May 2021.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

103. Investing in the US Natural Gas Pipeline System to Support Net-Zero Targets

Author:
Erin Blanton, Melissa Lott, and Kristin Smith
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The Biden administration’s move to bring the United States back into the Paris Agreement and lower greenhouse gas emissions to address climate change will, if carried through, lead to a reduction in fossil fuel consumption. Cutting back on the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas will be critical to transitioning the country to the lower-carbon energy system it needs to achieve decarbonization targets. But while it may seem counterintuitive, investing more in the domestic natural gas pipeline network could help the US reach net-zero emission goals more quickly and cheaply. Fortifying and upgrading the system could prepare the existing infrastructure to transport zero-carbon fuels as they become available and, in the meantime, reduce harmful methane leaks from natural gas. Studies by energy agencies, universities, and the industry that model future US natural gas consumption consistently show continued use of natural gas for at least the next 30 years, even in scenarios where the country achieves net-zero targets by midcentury. There is no quick replacement for gas in the US energy mix. And for many of the needs natural gas currently meets, the eventual replacement may be zero-carbon gaseous fuels (e.g., hydrogen, biogas). These fuels may play a significant role in supporting reliability and making the energy transition more affordable—but they, too, will require a pipeline network for efficient delivery to markets and end users. Building new pipelines is a time-consuming and costly process, especially when added to all the other infrastructure needs associated with the energy transition. When possible, adjusting existing infrastructure—already permitted and built—can help minimize the costs and accelerate the speed of the transition. The US has 2.5 million miles of natural gas pipeline infrastructure across the country, which, with investment, could be upgraded to cut emissions and be retrofitted for future transport of cleaner fuels. However, investments in pipeline infrastructure have drawn concern that they would lock fossil fuels into the US energy mix for a longer period of time and work against the energy transition. Such concerns are understandable given the contribution of fossil fuels to the global climate crisis. But retrofitting and otherwise improving the existing pipeline system are not a choice between natural gas and electrification or between fossil fuels and zero-carbon fuels. Rather, these investments in existing infrastructure can support a pathway toward wider storage and delivery of cleaner and increasingly low-carbon gases while lowering the overall cost of the transition and ensuring reliability across the energy system. In the same way that the electric grid allows for increasingly low-carbon electrons to be transported, the natural gas grid should be viewed as a way to enable increasingly low-carbon molecules to be transported. This paper, part of the work by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy on natural gas and the energy transition, examines projections of continued natural gas use and the zero-carbon fuels that are poised to become a bigger part of the energy mix. It details the state of the existing US natural gas pipeline network and trends within this segment of the market, as well as technical considerations for moving new, zero-carbon fuels through the system. The findings, combined with potential net-zero goals, lead to recommendations for curbing greenhouse gas emissions caused by leakage in the existing network, as well as opportunities to refurbish sections to carry increasing levels of cleaner fuels. It focuses on policy options that will minimize environmental impacts and maximize economic benefits. These options fall into two main categories: changing regulations on methane leak detection and repair to make the existing pipeline network as low emissions as possible while it still transports natural gas, and expanding on existing regulatory authority to allow for retrofitting the system for more hydrogen usage, along with increased R&D funding to test the integrity of the pipeline system with greater levels of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Energy Dependence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

104. Methane Emission Controls: Redesigning EPA Regulations for Greater Efficacy

Author:
Robert Kleinberg
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Natural gas holds a critical role in the US energy economy, providing 32 percent of primary energy evenly distributed among electric power generation, industrial use, and residential and commercial consumption (LLNL 2020). As countries set targets to minimize climate change, however, widespread reliance on fossil fuels, with their attendant greenhouse gas emissions, is being scrutinized. Methane, the main constituent of natural gas, is second only to carbon dioxide in its contribution to greenhouse gas warming (Kleinberg 2020). It holds the potential to be a primary driver of global average temperature change between now and 2050—no matter what progress is made in controlling increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next thirty years (Shindell et al. 2012). Half of global methane emissions come from natural sources, such as swamps and seeps, and half from anthropogenic sources, such as agriculture and fossil fuels. Regulations curbing methane emissions from the oil and gas industry are essential to mitigating global climate change over the next three decades. In the United States, current regulations were devised at a time when the technology for the measurement of natural gas emissions was relatively immature. Comprehensive performance-based regulations were not an option, and because of this, many regulations put in place were highly prescriptive. Data show these regulations have been largely ineffective. This commentary examines the potential to reduce emissions of methane from oil and natural gas infrastructure. It begins with a brief history of natural gas regulations and the effectiveness of rulemaking, before exploring unregulated and underregulated sources of methane. This is followed by a discussion about improvements in measurement capabilities and how regulations could be used to more effectively address methane emissions. This work shows the complexities of oil and gas production do not lend themselves to prescriptive regulation. Performance-based regulation, including quantitative compliance monitoring, would engage the talents of thousands of engineers, encouraging them to solve problems using locally appropriate solutions rather than relying on a prescriptive checklist approach that cannot anticipate every eventuality. The key to performance-based regulation is accurate measurement, and this capability has improved rapidly in recent years. Aircraft-based, facility-scale measurements encompassing tens of thousands of facilities spread over tens of thousands of square kilometers are economically viable and increasingly common. Permanently installed continuously monitoring sensors show promise in detecting intermittent sources; oil field pilot studies are underway. However, aircraft- and ground-based facility-scale measurements are not compliant with the current regulatory regime, which focuses on individual components. Therefore, the current regulatory regime must be completely rethought. (A comprehensive exposition of this topic, with evidentiary support, has been submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency [Kleinberg 2021b].)
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Methane
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

105. The Global Energy Crisis: Implications of Record High Natural Gas Prices

Author:
Anne-Sophie Corbeau
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The recent spike in energy prices across the globe has led to talks of an energy crisis with far reaching repercussions as the Northern Hemisphere braces for winter. While a significant focus has been on natural gas as gas spot prices in Asia and Europe hit levels unthinkable before ($56/million British thermal unit [mmBtu], or over $320/barrel [bbl] in oil-equivalent terms), the crisis has extended well beyond gas: oil prices are rising, China and Europe are facing record coal prices, and carbon prices in Europe have reached historic levels. As gas-fired plants (or coal in some regions) are at the margin, this is also leading to record power prices in different parts of the world. These circumstances lead to immediate concerns, but also flag important potential lessons for the future. In the short term, immediate concerns include a potential gas supply and power crunch over the coming winter, the impact of record-high gas and electricity prices on end-users’ energy bills, and power shortages. For natural gas, however, the crisis may extend beyond the weather. The role of natural gas in a world looking to slash carbon emissions has been an ongoing topic of discussion, and the potential for a sustained crisis that batters consumers may have critical repercussions for the fuel longer term. Already, at least two schools of thought are emerging from the current situation that reflect the ongoing debate about natural gas: one that views this episode as further proof that the world needs to rapidly get rid of fossil fuels, including natural gas, and one that views it as proof that more gas is needed in the immediate future to satisfy growing global energy demand. Questions of security of supply and affordability are also part of the discussion, especially in a future world with a higher share of renewables but where fossil fuels are still necessary to provide flexibility and are likely to continue to set power prices at the margin until new flexibility tools such as batteries or demand-side management are developed at scale. In addition, there are concerns about another widespread gilets jaunes[1] protest movement triggered by price spikes as governments push their agenda for decarbonization. For the gas industry, it could prove to be a moment of truth. The IEA stated earlier this year that “no new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net-zero pathway.”[2] Indeed, producers are facing increased scrutiny about future investments, including in upstream activities and liquefied natural gas (LNG), but at the same time are asked to make gas readily available when needed.[3] Meanwhile, developing countries that had been looking favorably at natural gas as a way to complement renewables and decommission coal could be deterred by these high and volatile gas prices from supporting LNG imports. The recent increase in gas prices could impact these decisions in different ways, especially if they remain high for the next few years. This commentary provides a brief overview of the current gas market and examines the potential near- and longer-term impacts for natural gas.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. Market, Policy, and Political Implications of the Global Natural Gas Crisis: Forum Report

Author:
Hon Xing Wong, Erin Blanton, and Samantha Lang
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
On October 18, 2021, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) hosted a special session of the Natural Gas Forum on the global nature of the current unexpected gas crisis, which has sparked chaos in many parts of the world. A number of factors have been put forward to explain the crisis, including a faster-than-expected pandemic recovery in economic demand that has precipitated global supply chain issues, extreme weather conditions around the world, and liquified natural gas (LNG) facility outages. The forum was an opportunity for participants to discuss the underlying causes of the global gas crisis and its long-term market, policy, and political implications. The discussion started with outlooks for the winter across the European Union, Russia, the United States, and East Asia before turning to a debate over any longer-term implications of the natural gas crisis on the energy transition. The forum’s participants included policy makers and senior leaders from major international agencies, energy companies, financial institutions, civil society organizations, academia, and nongovernmental organizations. This summary of the proceeding begins with the broad takeaways of the discussion, which occurred on a non-attribution basis under the Chatham House Rule, and then delves into regional issues and the future of natural gas.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Global Markets, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

107. Illicit Financial Flows Risk Factors in Uganda's Oil and Gas Sector

Author:
D. Ngabirano, Onesmus Mugyenyi, J. Muhindo, and P. Lamunu
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) are becoming a real challenge to resource mobilisation for financing development in Uganda and Africa at large. This fact sheet highlights the challenge of illicit financial flows, proposes mechanisms that can minimise the vice and makes a call for action to address the challenge.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Risk, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

108. Supercharged: The EuroAsia Interconnector and Israel’s Pursuit of Energy Interdependence

Author:
Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Contemporary analysis of Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics tends to focus on the discovery of offshore hydrocarbons, and how a desire to maximize commercial profits has spurred a realignment of regional interests. There is similar emphasis on how this realignment pushed some Eastern Mediterranean states into conflict with one another over maritime boundaries and drilling rights. But while natural gas pipelines may dominate political and analytical discourse, there are other infrastructure projects that deserve attention and shed further light on the region’s evolution and Israel’s role in this transitionary period. One example to support this claim is the EuroAsia Interconnector, an ambitious infrastructure project that intends to connect the European electrical grid via undersea cable from Greece to Cyprus, and Israel. Few in Israel are familiar with the interconnector. Unlike the much-publicized EastMed pipeline, the interconnector garners little attention. Ironically, there is a greater chance that the interconnector – whose cable would run along a similar route as the EastMed pipeline – will successfully link Israel and Europe in the Eastern Mediterranean, and not the more recognizable natural gas project.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Palestine, and Mediterranean

109. Taking the EU out of the EastMed pipeline quagmire

Author:
Sofia López Piqueres
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The recent escalating tensions between Greece and the Republic of Cyprus on the one hand and Turkey on the other have shown how contentious the issue of energy is in the Eastern Mediterranean. The planned EastMed pipeline is a case in point. But, paradoxically, adopting a ‘selective engagement’ approach and focusing on the energy and climate dimensions of the countries’ relations could be a starting point to rebuild trust. A discussion on the future of the EastMed project, in particular, could present an opportunity to get all parties at the table and diffuse the situation. To play a constructive role in this, the EU must act in the spirit of the Green Deal and stop investing in the EastMed pipeline, and find ways to encourage Greece, Cyprus and Turkey to make the shift to renewables now and ditch offshore gas exploration altogether.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Pipeline
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

110. Managing US-China Rivalry in the Arctic: Small states can be players in great power competition

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Many fear that strategic competition between the US and China threatens longstanding regional cooperation and stability in the Arctic. But if they recognise their own political and economic significance and work collectively, the Nordic states and Canada can still play an instrumental role in steering the region’s future away from confrontation. Recommendations: Recognise how US–China strategic competition represents a false binary for policy choices in the Arctic. Understand how economic connectivity provides room for manoeuvre against big power pressure. Encourage participation of non-Arctic states with similar economic and political norms on natural resource and infrastructure development.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Oil, Power Politics, Gas, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America