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21. Investigating the Effect of the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China

Author:
Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Oh, and Hyuk Hu Kwon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
his report examines the significant impact of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed under the Biden administration in October 2022. These controls, which target a broad range of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips, are part of a strategy aimed at curbing China’s advancement in critical technologies. A notable 32.5% decline in China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been observed, particularly in regions with advanced production capabilities and foreign company operations, such as those involving Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. While Korea experienced substantial drops in exports to China, the Netherlands saw an increase, reflecting its dominance in specific technologies like lithography. The AI chip sector has also been affected, with China turning to downgraded chips due to restricted access to high-performance models from companies like Nvidia. South Korea must adapt by strengthening its upstream semiconductor industry, considering reshoring production, and collaborating with international partners to mitigate risks. As U.S. export controls continue to evolve, the global semiconductor industry may face increased fragmentation, making strategic responses from affected nations essential to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, ongoing monitoring and adaptation to the dynamic regulatory environment shaped by these export controls are crucial.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Exports, Artificial Intelligence, Imports, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

22. Export Controls Game: Rethinking Global Integration

Author:
Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The article discusses how geopolitical interests are influencing trade policies and global supply chains, leading to a reevaluation of international relationships. The U.S. and China are specifically highlighted, with the U.S. implementing export controls on semiconductors to prevent China's military advancement, while China responds with its own export restrictions on essential raw materials. Using a game-theoretic model, the study illustrates how countries use export control measures to balance security interests and economic benefits, ultimately impacting the global semiconductor supply chain and production decisions of multinational corporations.
Topic:
Exports, Trade Policy, Economic Integration, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

23. Bureaucrats and the Korean export miracle

Author:
Philipp Barteska and Jay Euijung Lee
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Does bureaucratic capacity matter for growth miracles? This paper investigates how much the effect of an industrial policy during South Korea’s growth miracle depends on bureaucratic capacity. We find that the bureaucrats implementing the policy greatly change its effect on exports – the variable targeted by the policy and key to South Korea’s economic success. These bureaucrats manage offices that promote exports on appointments to 87 countries between 1965, when South Korea was one of the world’s poorest countries, and 2000. We exploit the three-yearly rotation of managers between countries to show that increasing bureaucrat ability by one standard deviation causes a 37% increase in exports. This effect is comparable to the policy’s average effect – estimated from office openings. Hence, this industrial policy entirely depends on bureaucratic capacity: It has no effect when implemented by a bureaucrat one standard deviation below average. We find evidence for a key mechanism via which better bureaucrats increase exports: transmitting information about market conditions. Under better bureaucrats South Korean exports increase more strongly with a country’s import demand – taking advantage of this demand. Finally, we investigate whether bureaucrat experience increases South Korean exports. We isolate quasi-random variation in experience: a product’s import demand growth during the bureaucrat’s first appointment. Such experience increases exports in subsequent appointments of this bureaucrat. This highlights that organizational capacity grows endogenously, implying a novel channel for path dependence in organizational capacity.
Topic:
Exports, Economic Development, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

24. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security

Author:
Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Ukraine

25. The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China: Analysis of a New PIIE Dataset

Author:
Martin Chorzempa, Mary Lovely, and Christine Wan
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Concerns over China’s national security and human rights activities have led the United States to rely increasingly on financial sanctions and export controls to curb Beijing’s behavior. But the tools are so complex it is difficult to assess their effectiveness. A new PIIE dataset sheds light on this economic statecraft. The first Trump administration added three times as many Chinese entities to export control and other sanctions lists than the previous four administrations; the Biden administration added even more to these lists. Most sanctions and controls target high-tech sectors, especially electronics, military and defense entities, aviation, space, and aerospace; targets are chosen under a veil of secrecy, raising questions over accountability and transparency. The benefits of isolating Chinese firms come with potential costs, hobbling innovation for US and allied business, encouraging circumvention of sanctions, and accelerating Chinese innovation.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, National Security, Sanctions, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

26. AI and India’s National Interest

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Claudia Lozano, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
AI offers a policy dilemma for India. On the one hand, export competitiveness hinges on the nationwide deployment of productivity-enhancing technologies. Indian services and consultancies must incorporate AI technologies to keep their leading position in the global market. On the other hand, there are also concerns over automation’s impact on social cohesion, discriminatory algorithmic decision-making, and the risks of “deepfakes”. However, the current transitional guidelines have shown a feasible pathway to avoiding overlapping liability or regulatory blindspots by re-interpreting existing legislation. India has a comprehensive framework for antitrust, corporate liability, free speech, and public order that covers AI development and use cases. India may not need AI-specific rules. Currently, only the EU has chosen to legislate through binding laws due to its unique structural deficiencies. The EU lacks a supranational constitution that safeguards human rights and protects citizens against AI-based surveillance or policing by its Member States. The EU must enact binding rules to pre-empt AI laws by national governments that will otherwise fragment its Single Market. Whereas India has previously taken inspiration from the EU or the US laws, India must follow its own paths and pursue its national interests based on its services-driven industrial profile and the two-way competition against China and the US, who have chosen not to impose any regulatory impediments on AI use or development. India’s challenge lies not in whether businesses prefer a local or foreign AI platform but in encouraging rapid adoption and supporting open-source and other alternatives accessible for fine-tuning and transfer learning for its IT industry.
Topic:
Regulation, Digital Economy, Exports, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

27. The European Union Deforestation Regulation: The Impact on Argentina

Author:
Pablo de la Vega
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We analyze the potential economic impacts in Argentina of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which as of January 2025 will prohibit the export to the European Union of certain raw materials and related products if they involve the use of deforested land. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the impact of such regulation on the Argentine economy. The results suggest that the potential macroeconomic impacts are limited. As a consequence of the EUDR, between 2025 and 2030, GDP would be reduced by an average of 0.46% with respect to the baseline scenario. However, of greater magnitude is the potential environmental impact. Deforested hectares would be reduced by 6.64% and polluting gas emissions by 0.39%.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Exports, Trade, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Europe, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

28. The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points

Author:
Leslie Palti-Guzman and Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. Following its geopolitical demise, Russia has undertaken its own gas amputation, moving from a super energy power status to a diminished role with uncertain prospects and only hard options left. Russia has cut off almost entirely pipeline gas supplies to the European Union (EU), first inflicting huge financial pain and collecting record high revenues, but then simply losing out its largest and best market with no realistic alternative, and no prospect of any significant return. However, the Kremlin could still further reduce some of the remaining pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and thus cause some tensions in the markets. Russia also retains leverage on oil markets, where the Kremlin managed to cope with the embargo as well as the price cap and maintain the relationship with Saudi Arabia which drives OPEC+ decisions. Meanwhile, in 2022, the European energy system has managed to surprisingly adapt on the supply and demand side to the three shocks: the decoupling from Russian energy supplies, the hydropower generation crisis, and the French nuclear electricity crisis. Liquefied natural gas has made a comeback in Europe and has been a savior of industries, governments, and populations. The LNG corridor between the EU and the United States (U.S.) has become the most dominant LNG trade route in 2022. This came at a huge cost though – EU’s gas import bill soared ten times from 2020 and three times from 2021 levels. For 2023, the European gas balance is much more fragile, as the demand reduction potential has reached its limits, same for the ability to attract additional non-Russian exports to Europe, at a time when missing Russian volumes will probably reach 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), instead of about 77 bcm in 2022. More moderate price levels since November 2022 have clearly overshadowed this fundamental mismatch, especially as the weather has been mild and China was still struggling with the pandemic. With an additional 30-40 bcm of missing Russian gas to offset in 2023 compared to 2022, Europeans can be expected to benefit from an extra gas of around 20-25 bcm left in storages thanks to mild weather and available LNG. They have no choice but to continue saving energy in a hurry, that is both on gas and electricity. Gas demand in power generation had increased in the first nine months of 2022 before falling in Q4 2022, and well over 15 bcm can be saved here in 2023 as more nuclear is available altogether, alongside more renewables, and some coal. It will be critical to reduce peak loads though. The key improvement is in terms of logistics, with the massive new LNG import capacity deployed across Europe. Overall, EU’s import situation will be very tensed and fragile for the next winter. The key challenge is that EU’s gas supply security ultimately depends on the weather in Europe, China’s and Japan’s LNG demand, and weather or technical outages in the Gulf of Mexico or in other producers. Any slight disruptions in supplies can have major impacts. As a last resort, bringing back some Groningen supplies, no matter how politically sensitive this would be, must be considered and prepared. Large financial compensations and effective governmental action would notably be required to offset the hardships.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Trade, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

29. Impact of economic sanctions on net commodity-producing and net commodity-consuming countries

Author:
Sergio R. Vale and Eduardo Viola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has had a marked economic impact. However, since Russia is a net producer of important commodities, the impact of sanctions on its economy was less than expected. But what would happen if there was a war involving a country that was a net importer of commodities? In the case of a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan, the impact on the world economy would be different, with a deeper recession around the world, but the impact on the Brazilian economy would still be positive on account of the possibility that would remain of agricultural exports to China.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Commodities, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Josh Krasna examines the implications of the closure of the pipeline that delivered oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port, focusing on the state of relations between Erbil and Baghdad.
Topic:
Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)