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Begin New Search Topic Exports Publication Year within 25 Years

171. The Birth, Death and Survival of Exports in Zambia 1999 - 2011

Author:
Bernard Banda and Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This paper deals with the dynamics of Zambia’s export performance, analyzing the birth, death and persistence of exporting in various products and destinations. We use a framework that has recently proliferated in international trade to decompose the growth of Zambia’s exports into an “intensive” and “extensive” margin. Our results show that the extensive margin is the dominant driver of export growth in Zambia. We attribute the poor performance of the intensive margin to the low survival among exporters that hardly lasts for more than a year. Our findings imply that interventions to support new-exporting should be encouraged. But it also raises key questions on the sustainability of export growth in the long-run. Therefore, we propose that interventions should target improving the duration of survival among exporters and deepen their intensity of exporting once they are able to survive longer. In conclusion, there is urgent need to carefully understand the factors that are responsible for the high mortality among exporters within the first year of birth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

172. Exports and Olympic Games: Is there a Signal Effect?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Felix J. Richter
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Rose & Spiegel (2011) find that Olympic Games host countries experience significant positive, lasting effects on exports. They interpret their results as an indication that countries use the hosting of such events to signal openness and competitiveness. We challenge these empirical findings on the grounds that a comparison of structurally different and non-matching groups of countries might suffer from a selection bias. We demonstrate that with an appropriate matching and treatment methodology, the significant Olympic effect disappears.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Olympics, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

173. Will Europe Fall into a Japanese-Style Stagnation Trap?

Author:
Peter Harrold
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Can Europe avoid falling in to a Japanese-style stagnation trap? In this type of trap, we see a repeated cycle of a financial crisis leading to a fiscal crisis, leading to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, and a resulting fall in demand. The decline in growth that inevitably follows simply causes the cycle to repeat itself. In theory, this should lead to improved competitiveness, but in Japan the forces of decline outweighed any boost in export demand. This E-brief is based on Peter Harrold’s presentation at the CASE 2011 International Conference on "Europe 2000: Exploring the Future of European Integration" held on November 18-19, 2011.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Policy, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

174. Trend of Bhutan’s Trade during 1907-26: Export

Author:
Ratna Sarkar and Indrajit Ray
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
Though the Bhutanese trade with India had been in a flourishing state during the sixteenth-nineteenth centuries, it got added impetus at the debut of the twentieth century because of successive international and domestic events in this Himalayan kingdom. Political activities around Bhutan, especially by Russia, made the British interested to forge a trade relation of India with that country. While an outside impetus had thus been burgeoning for her trade to make a break through, the election of the Tongsa Penlop, Ugyen Wangchuck in 1907 as the first King of Bhutan added further fuel to it as he was a supporter of trade and development in the domestic economy. It is, therefore, expected that trade flourished in Bhutan under the reign of King Ugyen Wangchuck (1907-1926). The objective of this article is to analyse this trend of trade in general, and that of export trade in particular. The organisation of the study is as follows. In section I we analyse the trend of merchandise export of Bhutan to British India during the reign of King Ugyen Wangchuck. Section II explains the destination of export trade of Bhutan. Section III makes an attempt to analyse the composition of exports. The main findings are summarised in section IV.
Topic:
History, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Bhutan

175. The Revealed Competitiveness of U.S. Exports

Author:
Massimo Del Gatto, Flippo de Mauro, Joseph W. Gruber, and Benjamin R. Mandel
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The U.S. share of world merchandise exports has declined sharply over the last decade. Using data at the level of detailed industries, this paper analyzes the decline in U.S. share against the backdrop of alternative measures of the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. We document the following facts: (i) only a few industries contributed to the decline in any meaningful way, (ii) a large part of the drop was driven by the changing size of U.S. export industries and not the size of U.S. sales within those industries, (iii) in a gravity framework, the majority of the decline in the U.S. export share within industries was due to the declining U.S. share of world income, and (iv) in a computed structural measure of firm productivity, average U.S. export productivity has generally maintained its high level versus other countries over time. Overall, our analysis suggests that the dismal performance of the U.S. market share is not a sufficient statistic for competitiveness.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

176. Empirical Estimation of Trend and Cyclical Export Elasticities

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper uses an adaptation of Vahid and Engle's common trend/common cycle analysis to estimate trend and cyclical export elasticities for trading partner income and real exchange rates for 36 countries. For the countries for which both types of income elasticities can be identified, the cyclical elasticity is on average more than twice as large as the trend elasticity. The methodology is applied to forecasting exports during the recent cycle and it appears to improve on simpler models for about half of the countries. For an aggregate of all of the countries for which separate elasticities can be identified, the RMSE is about half as large for the trend/cycle model as for the simple model.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

177. The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Author:
Brett Berger and Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Chinese exports have boomed, increasing far faster than GDP growth. What can account for this explosion? Our paper uses finely detailed Chinese export data (8-digit HS codes) combined with U.S. trade data to explore this question. Although exchange rate policy clearly boosted the trade surplus, and the structure of the economy, e.g. abundant cheap labor, encouraged investment, these alone cannot account for the changing composition and acceleration of exports. We find that the growth in exports is most likely a product of effective Chinese industrial policy and fortuitous timing. The detailed trade data reveal that key “new” technology goods, such as cell phones, LCD screens, and laptops played a critical role. Finally, we use the data to examine the relationship between Chinese exports and global manufacturing, in particular U.S. manufacturing employment. We find that increased Chinese competition in both domestic and U.S. export markets likely lowered U.S. manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2007. Chinese policy is not, however, wholly responsible. Some job losses, such as in textile production, were no doubt the result of China’s natural comparative advantages, while other U.S. job losses are attributable to relatively low investment and slow GDP growth in the United States following the 2001 recession.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

178. Exports Versus Multinational Production Under Nominal Uncertainty

Author:
Logan T. Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines how nominal uncertainty affects the choice firms face to serve a foreign market through exports or to produce abroad as a multinational. I develop a two-country, stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms make production and pricing decisions in advance, and I consider its implications on this relative choice. For foreign firms, both exports and multinational production are priced in the destination currency, and this uncertainty has no effect on the relative decision. In the data, U.S. firms set nearly all of their export prices in dollars. Therefore, home firms price exports in their own currency in the model. Home exporters gain an advantage over home multinationals: during a foreign contraction, the foreign exchange rate appreciates, causing exported goods from the home country to be relatively cheaper. This pricing advantage affects exporters non-linearly through demand, which translates to convex profits. As foreign volatility rises, the model implies that the home country should serve the foreign country relatively more through exports. I take this implication to bilateral U.S. data, using inflation volatility as a proxy for nominal volatility. Using sectoral data on sales by majority-owned foreign affiliates matched with U.S. exports, I find that higher inflation volatility is associated with a significantly lower ratio of multinational production to total foreign sales.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Multinational Corporations, Exchange Rate Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

179. Determinants of Economic Growth in BRIC Countries

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel and Iikka Korhonen
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And (c) Does lower institutional quality hinder growth? Results show that while BRIC nations have higher growth, there are significant within-group differences. China and Russia mostly showed higher growth, while India sometimes showed positive growth, and Brazil did not outperform the rest. Policy implications are discussed.
Topic:
Corruption, Economic Growth, Institutions, Exports, and BRIC
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

180. Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?

Author:
Shaghil Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled laregely from imported inputs ("processed" exports) and "non- processed" exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurredoverthepastthreeyears. Theresultsshowthatgreaterexchangerate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed ex- ports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater thanunity. WhenthesourceoftheincreaseintheChineserealexchangerateis appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the e§ect on processing exports is positive but insignÖcant, while the e§ect on non-processing exports is signiÖcantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against Chinaís advanced-economy trading partners, the e§ects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactualsimulationsbasedontheestimatedmodelstronglysug- gest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate áexibility could contribute to lowering Chinaís huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
China and Asia