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151. A Study on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade and the Issues of Regional Economic Integration in Central Asia

Author:
Kodirjon Maxamadaminovich Umarkulov
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
At the current stage of globalization, Central Asia (CA) is becoming a focal point for the political and economic interests of global forces because of its rich natural resources and critical strategic position. From this point of view, the CA countries need to form a joint development strategy for solving regional problems and a strong mechanism for countering the main political and economic conflicts in the region. At the same time, the countries of the region need to choose the path of joint development in order to increase the efficiency of their internal capacities and resources, adapt the domestic social and economic infrastructure to modern requirements and improve the living standards of the population. This is directly related to the progress of regional economic integration in CA. Through this integration, the economies of the countries in the region could complement each other and ensure a high level of development in mutual trade and industrial development. However, there are some obstacles and problems hindering the development of economic integration in the region. Most particularly, the weak infrastructure in the region, its economic-geographical isolation from world markets, administrative barriers and political instability hinder trade between the countries of CA. From this point of view, this study focuses on the problems of general and cross-border trade in CA countries, and the opportunities for economic integration in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

152. Exchange Rates and Firm Exports: The Role of Foreign Ownership and Subsidiaries

Author:
Hyelin Choi and Hyo Sang Kim
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Exchange rates have been changed unusually large these days. From 2011 to 2016, the Euro and the Japanese Yen have depreciated against the US Dollar by more than 25 percent. According to a theory, since competitively valued exchange rate helps to boost export growth, we should have observed a sub-stantial increase in export in the EU and Japan. However, the effectiveness of the exchange rates on exports appears to be weak across countries. This anomaly is one of the central puzzles in international macroeconomics: why large movements in the exchange rate have modest effects on the aggregate variables such as import prices, consumer prices, and quantity of exports. In this paper, we examines the role of global production linkages on ex-change rate elasticities by using Korean firm-level data. At firm-level, foreign-owned firms or firms with foreign subsidiaries participated in the Global Value Chains (GVC) play an important role in weakening the effect of ex-change rate movements on firm exports. The empirical results show that the exchange rate elasticity of total export is about -0.64, which implies that 10% appreciation of Korean Won would make a drop in total export by 6.4%. However, the exchange rate elasticities of firms are not the homogeneous across firms. We find that the exchange rate elasticities of firm exports are significant and negative for domestic-owned firms and firms without foreign subsidiary whereas those are insignificant for foreign-owned firms and firms with foreign subsidiaries. After controlling exports to foreign affiliates, we still find that the estimated exchange rate elasticities of exports are statistically insignificant, but become negative and relatively larger for firms with global production linkages. More-over, firms with higher GVC integration measure or more imported inter-mediate inputs have the significantly lower exchange rate elasticities of firm exports. It suggests that developments of global production linkages via firm ownership, within-industry or within-firm in the last decade play an essential role in alleviating the effect of exchange rate movements on the firm exports.
Topic:
Exchange Rate Policy, Economic Policy, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

153. Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

Author:
Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, and Heiwai Tang
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump's "Trade War" against China.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

154. Exporting for Growth: Identifying Leading Sectors for Egypt and Tunisia Using the Product Space Methodology (التصدیر من أجل النمو: تحدید القطاعات الرائدة في مصر وتونس باستخدام منھجیة فضاء المنتجات)

Author:
Amirah El-Haddad
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This discussion paper is available below in both Arabic (2019) and English (2018). The structural transformation of countries moves them towards more sophisticated, higher-value products. Network analysis, using the Product Space Methodology (PSM), guides countries towards leading export sectors. The identification process rests on two pillars: (1) available opportunities, that is, products in the product space that the country does not yet export which are more sophisticated than its current exports; and (2) the stock of a country’s accumulated productive knowledge and the technical capabilities that, through spillovers, enable it to produce slightly more sophisticated products. The PSM points to a tradeoff between capabilities and complexity. The methodology identifies very basic future products that match the two countries’ equally basic capabilities. Top products are simple animal products, cream and yogurt, modestly sophisticated plastics, metals and minerals such as salt and sulphur for Egypt; and slightly more sophisticated products such as containers and bobbins (plastics) and broom handles and wooden products for Tunisia, which is the more advanced of the two countries. A more interventionist approach steers the economy towards maximum sophistication, thus identifying highly complex manufactured metals, machinery, equipment, electronics and chemicals. Despite pushing for economic growth and diversification, these sectors push urban job creation and require high-skill workers, with the implication that low-skilled labour may be pushed into unemployment or into low-value informal jobs. A middle ground is a forward-looking strategy that takes sectors’ shares in world trade into account. This approach identifies medicaments in the chemicals sector; seats (e.g. car and aeroplane seats) in the “other highly manufactured” sector; inflated rubber tyres in the chemicals community (plastics and rubber); containers, bobbins and packages of plastics also in the plastics and rubber section; and articles of iron and steel in the metals sector for Egypt. The top product for Tunisia is furniture in the highly manufactured and special purpose goods community, followed by three products in plastics and rubber in the chemicals community, and finally three machinery sectors.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Exports, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

155. Revealed Comparative Advantage in the Global Citrus Market and Implications for South Africa

Author:
Tebogo Seleka and Ajuruchukwu Obi
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper adopts the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index and data for the period 1961-2013 to examine comparative advantage among the leading citrus exporters in the global market and draws implications for South Africa’s citrus industry. Results reveal that Spain was the most competitive citrus exporter throughout the review period. South Africa (SA) improved steadily over time from position four to position two, surpassing Italy and Morocco in the process. Morocco, which ranked between positions two and four, was also surpassed by Turkey, which improved from position ten during the period 1961-1965 to position three during 2006-2010. Trend analyses of the annual NRCA scores indicate that Turkey is on the verge of surpassing SA in terms of competitiveness. Broadly, the results indicate that SA experienced weakening comparative advantage during the apartheid era, owing partly to trade sanctions by several European countries. With the end of apartheid and the subsequent removal of the sanctions, the situation has vastly improved, further yielding a rise in SA citrus competitiveness in the global market.
Topic:
Global Markets, Economy, Exports, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

156. Competitiveness of ACP Sugar Exports in the Global Market

Author:
Tebogo B. Seleka and Thula Dlamini
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
We employ the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index on data for the period 1961-2013 to examine the competitiveness of the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in the global sugar market. Results indicate that the majority of the ACP states had comparative advantage in the global sugar market during the period 1961-2013. However, most of these countries also experienced declining comparative advantage, except for a few African countries that emerged from initial states of extreme comparative disadvantage to marginal comparative (dis)advantage. This occurred despite the fact that these countries enjoyed tariff free access to the highly protected EU market. Mauritius, followed by Fiji, Guyana and Jamaica, recorded the strongest comparative advantage among the ACP countries. However, it recorded weaker comparative advantage than the leading comparator non-ACP countries of Australia, Brazil and Thailand, which experienced considerable increases in comparative advantage over the considered period. Overall, there has been convergence in comparative advantage among ACP states since the signing of the Lomé convention in 1975.
Topic:
Exports, Sugar, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific

157. Most Nuclear Ban Treaty Proponents are Lagging in Implementing Sound Export Control Legislation

Author:
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Allison Lach, and Andrea Stricker
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Using data compiled from a new index by our Institute, the Peddling Peril Index, which we will soon release, three quarters of the countries that voted in July 2017 in favor of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons lack adequate export control legislation. These countries lack a firm basis to control the export or retransfer of nuclear and nuclear-related commodities that are critical to the production and possession of nuclear weapons. If the UN Ban Treaty proponent countries truly seek a world without nuclear weapons, they should take the lead in ensuring that all countries, including their own, have effective strategic trade control systems able to prevent the spread of dangerous commodities and facilities that are critical to the production, maintenance, and improvement of nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Exports, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

158. Brăila at the End of the Nineteenth Century: The Report of Vice-Consul William J. Norcop on the Year 1899

Author:
Cristian Constantin
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Hiperboreea
Institution:
Balkan History Association
Abstract:
The text proper is preceded by a short historical comment on the activity of the International Trade in the Lower Danube region. The exports and imports of Romania, and her commercial relations with the different European countries had been, from their very beginning, organised on a highly individual basis owing to the initiative and according to the interests of private citizens. The report is an extremely important source for all social aspects related to the Brăila harbour, from statistic dates about export and import, agriculture, navigation, and economic realities in the towns. This document is an alternative to the statistical sources published by the European Commission of the Danube and by the Romanian authorities.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, History, Exports, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Europe and Romania

159. Poland in the European Union.Ten Years of Membership

Author:
Katarzyna Kolodziejczyk
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Twelve years have passed since the Polish entry into the European Union. For Poland the date of 1 May 2004 is the culmination of a transformation process launched at the end of the Cold War in 1989. One of the priorities of Polish foreign policy, the expansion of the political, economic and cultural relations with Western Europe and the United States has been met. This approach has been described as ‘the return to Europe’. Membership in the European Union changed the Polish economy and the new politics opened up new opportunities for businesses and citizens. The aim of the article is to analyze the balance of the Polish membership in the European Union in the economic, financial, political and social dimensions.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Finance, Economy, Exports, and Imports
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

160. Export Crops and Civil Conflict

Author:
Joseph Felter and Benjamin Crost
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Many governments and international experts consider a move towards high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction. Little is known, however, about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict- affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop intensity to provide evidence that increases in the value of a major export crop exacerbate conflict violence in the Philippines. We further show that this effect is concentrated in areas with low baseline insurgent control. In areas with high insurgent control, a rise in crop value leads to a decrease in violence but a further expansion of rebel-controlled territory. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents gain strength from extorting agricultural exporters and that insurgent strength has a non-monotonic effect on conflict violence because strong insurgent groups can establish local monopolies of violence.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Violence, and Exports
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines