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381. The Case for Open Capital Markets

Author:
Robert Krol
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Recent financial problems in emerging economies have led to calls for a new international financial architecture. Proposals include restricting short-term capital flows and extending the International Monetary Fund's role to that of an international lender of last resort. Both “reforms” would be mistakes.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

382. Kosovo: A Strategy for Economic Development

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo cannot have a stable future without sustainable economic development. This report considers the task of promoting such development. After surveying the present state of the economy, it assesses the international efforts so far to lay the groundwork for future prosperity. It also considers the prospects for the former socially owned sector, including plans for privatisation and prospects for restructuring and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

383. Creating an Environment: Developing Venture Capital in India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policymakers around the world has been the U.S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

384. The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick-Prescott filter over the most recent period when such estimates are generally considered to be unreliable. The second estimates equilibrium levels of the cyclical indicators and uses an Okun's Law-type relationship to derive output gaps and potential output. The second method is also applied to the components of potential output to derive a third estimate. These methods suggest that the current Japanese output gap is considerably larger than a simple Hodrick-Prescott filter would suggest.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

385. Home Bias and High Turnover Reconsidered

Author:
Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Tesar and Werner (1995) finding of very high turnover rates on foreign equity portfolios is based on an underestimation of cross-border equity positions. Foreign turnover rates calculated using information from comprehensive benchmark surveys on cross-border holdings are much lower than previously reported and comparable to domestic turnover rates. However, the basic intuition from the Tesar-Werner study, that transaction costs do not help explain the observed home bias, is confirmed using data on transaction costs in 41 markets.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

386. A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson, Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

387. Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries

Author:
John H. Rogers and Hayden P. Smith
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

388. Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe

Author:
John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

389. The Effects of Convergence: Internationalisation and the Changing Distribution of Net Value Added in Large German Firms

Author:
Anke Hassel and Jürgen Beyer
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper examines whether and how the increasing internationalisation of firms impacts on the operation of a co-ordinated market economy. Following the tenets of agency theory it assumes that an emerging market for corporate control changes the monitoring mechanisms that oversee management. Since Anglo- American forms of monitoring are usually associated with a higher return for investors compared with Continental European firms, a change in the distribution of the net value added of firms is expected. Using financial data on 59 large German companies, the paper shows that the emerging convergence of German corporate governance practices to Anglo-American standards has had a weak, but significant, impact on the distribution of net value added. This is in contrast to the impact of the internationalisation of firms on product markets, which does not have an effect. Since the market for corporate control is, however, still underdeveloped in Germany, the main effects remain to be seen.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Germany

390. An Emerging Market for Corporate Control? The Mannesmann Takeover and German Corporate Governance

Author:
Gregory Jackson and Martin Hopner
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Corporate governance in Germany is often described as a bank-oriented, blockholder or stakeholder model where markets for corporate control have not played a significant role. This case study of the hostile takeover of Mannesmann AG by Vodafone in 2000 demonstrates how systemic changes during the 1990s have eroded past institutional barriers to takeovers. These changes include the strategic reorientation of German banks from the “house bank” to investment banking, the growing consensus and productivity orientation of employee codetermination and corporate law reform. A significant segment of German corporations are now subjected to a market for corporate control. The implications for the German model are examined in light of both claims by agency theory for the efficiency of takeover markets, as well as the institutional complementarities within Germany's specific “variety” of capitalism. While the efficiency effects are questionable, the growing pressures for German corporations to achieve the higher stock market valuations of their Anglo-American competitors threaten the distributional compromises underlying the German model.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
America and Germany