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211. Status, Identity, and Rising Powers

Author:
Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the current era, the most striking development is the appearance of rising powers. These include Brazil, Russia, India, and China but also South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea. No longer can a small group of advanced states, the Group of Seven (G-7), manage the world economy. The G-7 has for all practical purposes been replaced by the G-20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. The emerging powers in Asia account for a growing share of the world's global domestic product. These powers are spending more on their military—India already has an aircraft carrier and plans to procure two more. China's growing navy is a major concern to the United States military.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

212. Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons

Author:
Michael Auslin
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific region will be the primary foreign policy challenge for the United States and liberal nations over the next generation. Doing so successfully will provide the greatest economic and political opportunities for the next quarter century. Conversely, a failure to maintain stability, support liberal regimes, create cooperative regional relations, and uphold norms and standards of international behavior will lead to a region, and world, of greater uncertainty, insecurity, and instability. Due to its economic strength, military power, and political dynamism, the Indo-Pacific will be the world's most important region in coming decades, and its significance will be felt throughout the globe. Since the end of World War II, it has transformed itself into the world's economic powerhouse, yet has also witnessed a struggle between tides of liberalism, authoritarianism, and even totalitarianism. It remains riven by distrust, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and painful historical memories. The Indo-Pacific's unique geography makes the balance of regional security most vulnerable in its "commons": the open seas, air lanes, and cyber networks that link the region together and to the world.
Topic:
Security, Development, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, and Australia/Pacific

213. Deter and Assure: Charting a Course for America's Asian Alliances in a New Nuclear Age

Author:
Tim Sullivan
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As home to a number of the world's most dynamic economies, two rising powers, and six nuclear states, Asia is a region of enormous strategic importance to the United States. For over six decades, America has functioned as the preeminent power in Asia, playing a vital role in providing security and ensuring a stable balance of power that has allowed the region's states to flourish politically and economically. The U.S. security framework in the region has rested historically upon a series of bilateral alliances and strategic partnerships. The arrangement has impressively stood the test of time despite concerns that the lack of an overarching, multilateral security architecture would lead to inefficiencies in the United States' pursuit of regional stability.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

214. Are Private Equity Firms in Emerging Markets Entrepreneurial? A Case Study of Egypt

Author:
Ayman Ismail
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Over the five year period from 2003 to 2008, private equity and venture capital investments have grown exponentially, both globally and in emerging markets, making private equity firms and funds increasingly important actors in emerging markets. In this paper, we examine the hypothesis that private equity firms in emerging markets are entrepreneurial-i.e., are more focused on creating new firms or growing and globalizing existing ones, based on a case study of Egypt.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

215. The Sovereign Debt Problem

Author:
George Soros
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
The Sovereign Debt Problem
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Financial Crisis

216. The value of power, the power of values: a call for an EU Grand Strategy

Author:
Sven Biscop (ed.)
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
In its 2003 European Security Strategy (ESS), the EU has a grand strategy, embracing all instruments and resources at the disposal of the Union and the Member States, but a partial one. The ESS tells us how to do things – in a preventive, holistic and multilateral way – but it is much vaguer on what to do: what are the concrete objectives and priorities of the EU as a global actor?
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

217. The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

Author:
Fang Cai and Hyunsoo Joo
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

218. Labor Market Search in Emerging Economies

Author:
Emine Boz, Ceyhun Bora Durdu, and Nan Li
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper shows that labor markets of emerging economies are characterized by large fluctuations in wages while employment fluctuations are subdued. We find that a real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions can account for these aforementioned regularities. Moreover, the joint interaction of countercyclical interest rates and search-matching frictions can go a long way in accounting for higher consumption variability relative to output and countercyclical current account observed in emerging markets. Extending this baseline model to incorporate procyclical variations in the technical efficiency at which matches are generated, the model can match the unemployment variability observed in the data.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Global Focus

219. China's $1.7 Trillion Bet: China's External Portfolio and Dollar Reserves

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
China reported $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2008. This is by far the largest stockpile of foreign exchange in the world: China holds roughly two times more reserves than Japan, and four times more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China's true foreign port- folio exceeds its disclosed foreign exchange reserves. At the end of December, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)—part of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) managed close to $2.1 trillion: $1.95 trillion in formal reserves and between $108 and $158 billion in “other foreign assets.” China's state banks and the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund, together manage another $250 billion or so. This puts China's total holdings of foreign assets at over $2.3 trillion. That is over 50 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $2,000 per Chinese inhabitant.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

220. Africa's Private Sector: What's Wrong with the Business Environment and What to Do About It

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Manju Kedia Shah, and Alan Gelb
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Why has the private sector failed to thrive in much of sub-Saharan Africa? Drawing on a unique set of enterprise surveys, we identify inadequate infrastructure (especially unreliable electricity and poor quality roads) and burdensome regulations as the biggest obstacles to doing business. We find as well that the private sector in many countries is dominated by ethnic minorities, which inhibits competition and lowers demand for a better business environment. Solutions include investing in infrastructure, providing risk guarantees, and reforming regulations to lower the cost of doing business, as well as increasing access to education for would-be entrepreneurs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa