Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Economics

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued rules on June 3 outlining the participation of foreign firms in fund management and securities business. Issued earlier than expected, the rules re-state concessions made in the trade and investment agreement China signed with the United States in November 1999. Modernisation and liberalisation of the sector is a prerequisite to channelling more of China's 1 trillion dollars of private savings to equity investment.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and China

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer expressed support for regional currency arrangements in a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on May 21. East Asian nations continue to discuss swap arrangements and other forms of cooperation in the hope of defending local currencies. Fischer endorsed the swap plans while throwing critical light on currency 'management' schemes. Such schemes could result in perverse consequences for regional economies.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Hong Kong

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: First-quarter GDP grew by 5.8%, the US government announced on Friday, 26 April 2002. The high growth figure will provide sustenance for optimists and help support high stock market valuations. However, the contrast with high-profile corporate earnings disappointments, together with a closer look at sources of demand, suggests a far weaker performance in the rest of 2002 and in 2003.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on policy options for pension funding from an intergenerational risk-sharing perspective. Demographic and business-cycle trends point to a shortfall in pension provision for retiring generations over the medium term.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The United States on March 5 announced tariffs on the vast majority of US steel imports. Despite rumours that he would impose moderate duties, US President Bush levied 30% tariffs on the types of steel accounting for about three-quarters of steel imports. Given that these duties follow hundreds of anti-dumping duties imposed on steel products over the past three years, the decision means that virtually no foreign steel will be sold in the United States. It will also have a host of unforeseen international consequences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The largest US-based pension fund last week listed 13 emerging markets that its fund managers will be allowed to invest in. Investment firms appointed by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) will actively manage up to one billion dollars in equity investments in 13 countries and unwind CalPERS' equity positions in markets outside them. As a large institutional investor, CalPERS' decisions have an important signalling role for a variety of institutional funds.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

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