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5001. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala 1977-1986

Author:
Timothy R. Gulden
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper examines detailed records from the civil conflict in Guatemala between 1977 and 1986. It reveals a number of novel patterns which support the use of complex systems methods for understanding civil violence. It finds a surprising, non-linear relationship between ethnic mix and killing; thereby inviting analysis based on group dynamics. It shows the temporal texture of the conflict to be far from smooth, with a power spectrum that closely resembles that of other, better understood, complex systems. The distribution of incident sizes within the data seems to fall into two distinct sets, one of which, corresponding to "regular" conflict, is Zipf distributed, the other of which includes acts of genocide and is distributed differently. This difference may indicate that that agents of the state were proceeding under different types of orders. These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict analysis of command structures.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala

5002. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

5003. Odious Debt

Author:
Michael Kremer and Seema Jayachandran
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
When the international community wants to put pressure on a government that suppresses democracy and human rights, a common approach is to impose economic sanctions. Traditional sanctions, however, are often criticized as either ineffective or inhumane. The targeted government can find ways to evade them, and the sanctions may hurt rather than help the people in the country. For example, when trade sanctions are deployed, smugglers and even some national governments will likely flout them, enticed by profits boosted by the sanction itself. When trade sanctions are not evaded, the loss of national income can impoverish citizens. This policy brief proposes a new form of sanction that avoids these shortcomings and hence could be a valuable addition to the toolkit of sanctions available to the international community and national governments.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Political Economy

5004. The Trezise Symposium on the Japanese Economy

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The Japanese economy has undergone a decade of sluggish growth marked by three recessions, including the current one. This time, recession is accompanied by general price deflation, a situation unprecedented among industrialized nations since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Meanwhile, the financial sector sits on a rising mountain of bad loans. A serious financial crisis and deeper recession are real possibilities.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

5005. Avoiding a Cyprus Crisis

Author:
Philip H. Gordon and Henri Barkey
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The resumption of negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders has led to renewed hopes that the divided island of Cyprus can be reunified ahead of its likely invitation to join the European Union (EU) in December 2002. In fact, however, there is no guarantee that the renewed talks will produce a deal. Americans and other interested observers should support the process and encourage the leaders to compromise. But they should also be prepared for a scenario in which the parties cannot overcome their differences and the EU extends an invitation to join that would only apply to the Greek portion of the island.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Island

5006. New Role in U.S. Trade Policy

Author:
John Audley
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
On a hot day in August, President George W. Bush signed into law the Trade Act of 2002. Months of debate between the administration and members of Congress, their constituencies, and other governments were over; with the stroke of his pen President Bush became the first president in almost a decade to enjoy the benefits of trade promotion authority (TPA).
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

5007. Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery

Author:
Thomas E. Jr. Graham
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For much of the first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the issue of reform—of transition to free-market democracy—dominated discussions of Russia in Russia itself and in the West. Russian president Boris Yeltsin advocated reform; Western governments declared their support and offered their assistance. This was particularly true of the U.S. government. President Clinton's administration came into office in 1993 determined to assist Russia in its transformation into “a normal, modern state—democratic in its governance, abiding by its own constitution and by its own laws, market-oriented and prosperous in its economic development, at peace with itself and the rest of the world,” as deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott, the chief architect of the U.S. administration's Russia policy, was wont to put it.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

5008. Sustainable Development A Dubious Solution in Search of a Problem

Author:
Jerry Taylor
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
From August 26 through September 4, 2002, approximately 100 heads of state and 60,000 delegates will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to attend a “World Summit on Sustainable Development.” The conference—convened on the 10th anniversary of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and expected to be the largest U.N. summit in history— will explore domestic and international policy options to promote the hottest environmental buzzwords to enter the public policy debate in decades.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Globalization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South Africa

5009. The Globalization of Human Well-Being

Author:
Indur M. Goklany
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Controversy over globalization has focused mainly on whether it exacerbates income inequality between the rich and the poor. But, as opponents of globalization frequently note, human well-being is not synonymous with wealth. The central issue, therefore, is not whether income gaps are growing but whether globalization advances well-being and, if inequalities in well-being have expanded, whether that is because the rich have advanced at the expense of the poor.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Human Welfare

5010. Fixing Argentina

Author:
Kurt Schuler
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Argentina's currency crisis and economic depression have been caused by the bad policies of its government—not by banks, speculators, the International Monetary Fund (despite the bad advice it has given), or other scapegoats. The De la Rúa and Duhalde governments have made several gigantic blunders, namely, increasing tax rates, freezing bank deposits, devaluing the peso, and forcibly converting dollar bank deposits and contracts into pesos (“pesofication”).
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America