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4851. Opening the Convergence Black Box: Measurement Problems and Demographic Aspects

Author:
Carlos Azzoni, Naercio Menezes-Filho, and Tatiane Menezes
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we address the issues involved with the use of microeconomic data, that is, household surveys, to compare the patterns of income growth among different regions instead of the commonly used aggregate data. In particular, we investigate the issues of aggregation of household income to regional income and the problem of demography. As returns to experience generally differ across regions, differences in the patterns of income growth across regions in the same time interval will differ across age groups, which means that convergence or divergence of aggregate income among regions will depend on the age structure of their population. We apply these concepts to the case of the states of Brazil, for which we have repeated cross sections from a rich household survey. We find that patterns of income growth vary a great deal across birth cohorts, depending on the economic returns to experience.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Brazil

4852. Regional Output Differences in International Perspective

Author:
Alan Heston and Bettina Aten
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Accurate regional estimates of output are desired as an indicator of level of development and as a variable used to explain internal migration, demand patterns, fertility and other aspects of behaviour. This chapter explores one often neglected aspect of regional income differences, namely that due to price differences or regional purchasing power parities. When nominal regional income measures are adjusted for these price level differences they are termed real regional incomes. The preferred method of estimating regional purchasing power parities by detailed price comparisons is discussed for Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The empirical thrust of the chapter is an investigation of different methods for estimating regional real incomes based on PPP data for 167 countries and nominal regional incomes and other data for about 870 administrative areas at the subnational level. Even in their present form we believe the real income estimates provided for the geographical units present opportunities for understanding the world economic structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Brazil

4853. How Responsive is Poverty to Growth? A Regional Analysis of Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in Indonesia, 1984-99

Author:
Jed Friedman
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper uses six nationally representative household consumption surveys to develop successive poverty profiles for Indonesia over a fifteen-year period of sustained high growth followed by rapid contraction. Adopting a 'cost-of-basic-needs' approach to poverty determination (an approach particularly suited to measures of absolute poverty), this paper develops price indices and calculates poverty lines from unit value data, an oft neglected source of information. The summary findings confirm that Indonesia has witnessed broadbased gains in poverty reduction over the period 1984-96 and then a dramatic reversal during the recent financial crisis. These summary findings, however, mask substantial diversity in growth, inequality, and poverty change across Indonesian regions and so subsequent analysis focuses on the links between growth, inequality, and changes in poverty at the regional level. As opposed to previous studies of poverty change that have used short panels of cross-national data to identify the relationship between growth and poverty, this study employs a longer panel for a single country in order to investigate how poverty change at the provincial level varies with province growth rates and province changes in inequality (while controlling for time invariant province characteristics). The results indicate that poverty change is highly responsive to overall growth. However closer analysis reveals that regional differences in poverty levels persist even after controlling for the effects of provincial income levels, particularly for rural areas. These findings suggest that local factors play an important role in poverty determination and may interact with growth to impact poverty reduction in differing ways across Indonesia. Future investigations will need to take a more careful look at these local determinants of poverty change and attempt to identify the types of growth toward which poverty measures are particularly responsive.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Indonesia

4854. Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for China

Author:
Martin Ravallion
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper tests for external effects of local economic activity on consumption and income growth at the farm household level using panel data from four provinces of post-reform rural China. The tests allow for nonstationary fixed effects in the consumption growth process. Evidence is found of geographic externalities, stemming from spillover effects of the level and composition of local economic activity and private returns to local human and physical infrastructure endowments. The results suggest an explanation for rural underdevelopment arising from underinvestment in certain externality-generating activities, of which agricultural development emerges as the most important.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4855. Are Neighbours Equal? Estimating Local Inequality in Three Developing Countries

Author:
Chris Elbers, Peter Lanjouw, Johan Mistiaen, Berk Ozler, and Ken Simler
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Based on a statistical procedure that combines household survey data with population census data, this paper presents estimates of inequality for three developing countries at a level of disaggregation far below that allowed by household surveys alone. We show that while the share of within-community inequality in overall inequality is high, this does not necessarily imply that all communities in a given country are as unequal as the country as a whole. In fact, in all three countries there is considerable variation in inequality across communities. We also show that economic inequality is strongly correlated with geography, even after controlling for basic demographic and economic conditions.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and South America

4856. Optimality and Overuse of Labour in Estonian Manufacturing Enterprises

Author:
Almas Heshmati and Jaan Masso
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
For transition economies labour market flexibility is necessary for successful restructuring and reallocation of labour force and for coping with the requirements of the European Monetary Union. In this paper we apply a novel approach to the issue of labour market flexibility in transition countries by studying the optimality and efficiency of labour usage among Estonian manufacturing enterprises. A dynamic model is employed where both the long run optimal level of employment and the speed at which actual employment is adjusted to the optimal are modelled as functions of several variables. Firm level panel data from 1995 to 1999 were used. The results showed that in the long run employment responds greatest to wages, followed by valueadded and capital stock. Speed of adjustment and labour use optimality and efficiency show much greater variations over firms than over time. In the course of time there occurs both labour saving technical change and an increase in the efficiency of labour usage. On average there is shortage of labour compared to firm's own optimal level, while over use of labour compared to best-practice technology. Capital seems to be a binding constraint on the development of employment in the Estonian labour market.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

4857. Impact of Trade Liberalization on Returns from Land: A Regional Study of Indian Agriculture

Author:
Ghosh Nilabja
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Trade liberalization, by aligning domestic prices with world prices, is envisaged to bring welfare gains to a country. In the case of Indian agriculture, owing to the vastness and diversity of the sector, the impact is likely to be profoundly unequal across regions especially when liberalization is double-edged, acting on both output and input sides. This paper views returns from land resource as a primary determinant of farmers' economic well-being and production incentive and considers paddy both as the dominant support for the rural population and as a product with comparative advantage, as most studies have demonstrated. Working with state and sub-state level data and taking account of the differences in technologies, productivities and transport costs, the paper finds that the gains vary regionally and may not be positive in all cases when both output and input prices are globally aligned.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4858. Developed Country Trade Barriers and the Least Developed Countries: The Economic Results of Freeing Trade

Author:
Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Doha Ministerial Declaration emphasized that priority should be given to improving market access for products originating in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this paper, we analyze the importance of this proposition with respect to market access in the Triad economies. We first present a brief history of non-reciprocal preferences granted by the Triad. This covers Generalized System of Preference (GSP) programmes in each, and further preferences granted to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries by the EU and preferences granted to Caribbean Basin, Andean, and African countries by the US. This history is followed by an assessment of trade generated by these preferences in the year 2000, and of the extent to which LDC exports might be expected to increase should the preferences be made comprehensive. Preferences in 2000 are shown to have led to an increase of US$3.5 billion in LDC exports, while a complete duty-free treatment could expand LDC exports by as much as US$7.6 billion, 90 per cent of which will be absorbed by the US. As this represents a doubling of LDC exports to these countries, we interpret these results as an endorsement of this priority in the Doha Round of negotiations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Caribbean

4859. The New Global Determinants of FDI Flows to Developing Countries: The Importance of ICT and Democratization

Author:
Tony Addison and Almas Heshmati
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased dramatically in recent years. However, the distribution of FDI is highly unequal and very poor countries face major difficulties in attracting foreign investors. This paper investigates the determinants of FDI inflows to developing countries, with a particular emphasis on the impact of the 'third wave of democratization' that started in the early 1980s and the spread of information and communication technology (ICT) that began in the late 1980s. These two global developments must now be taken into account in any explanation of what determines FDI flows. Using a large sample of countries, together with panel data techniques, the paper explores the determinants of FDI. The causal relationship between FDI, GDP growth, trade openness and ICT is investigated. The main findings are that democratization and ICT increase FDI inflows to developing countries. The paper concludes that more assistance should be given to poorer countries to help them to adopt ICT and to break out of their present 'low ICT equilibrium' trap.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

4860. Inflation, Output and Perfectly Enforceable Price Controls in Orthodox and Heterodox Stabilization Programmes

Author:
George Mavrotas and Mario Reyna-Cerecero
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper deals with the success of price controls in stabilizing high inflation rates and their effects on the real economy under an imperfect competition setting derived by optimal maximization. Our model builds on Helpman's work of price controls and imperfect competition, and incorporates inflation inertia through adaptive expectations. The model predicts that under these circumstances price controls can be an effective method of curving inflation when they accompany an orthodox monetary restriction programme; incomes policies alone cannot curve inflation substantially. Efforts where monetary growth is decreased gradually and price controls are implemented to achieve zero inflation result in the boom-recession cycle observed in many real life programmes. When monetary growth is curved immediately and price controls are implemented to achieve zero inflation, there follows a recession and not a boom. Orthodox money-based stabilization programmes implemented on their own need more time to control inflation and always produce a recession.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance