Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Publication Year within 25 Years

4561. Time for More Currency Flexibility

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The last big wave of European and Japanese concern about a weak dollar came after the August 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates. At that time European countries feared inflation and, not wanting to support the dollar and thereby import U.S. inflation pressures, they accepted revaluation of their currencies with some misgivings because, as always, a weaker dollar meant more difficulty in competing with vigorous U.S. traded-goods companies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

4562. Listen to the Markets

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Market behavior in 2004 has defied most predictions. Interest rates and stock prices have dropped—the reverse of most forecasts at the start of the year. The dollar has been broadly trendless despite a rising and "unsustainable" current account deficit that was supposed to have pushed it down. And, of course, the price of oil, which was widely expected in January—not to mention February, March, April, May, and June—to drop back below $30 per barrel has risen relentlessly to well above $50 per barrel.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

4563. The Recovery: Three Years On

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The U.S. post-bubble economic recovery, which officially began in November 2001 after a recession of just six months, will be three years old by election day. The prior recession had lasted a mere eight months-from July 1990 to March 1991-and was followed by an expansion of ten years, the longest on record. The expansion before that one lasted ninety-two months-from November 1982 through July 1990-following a recession of just sixteen months. The period following November 1982 until the stock market crash of March 2000 witnessed one of the longest and most powerful stock market rallies in U.S. history, accompanied by falling inflation and falling interest rates. The remarkable performance of the last twenty or so years will be difficult to match over the next decade. Indeed, merely sustaining the growth in the current expansion will require some changes to current policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

4564. Oil and Stagflation

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
I am not an expert on the price of oil. But many who claim to be have been saying for months that its price should drop back below $25 or $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, the actual price has risen steadily to nearly $50 per barrel as this Outlook goes to press.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States

4565. Paradise Lost

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
It sure was wonderful while it lasted. Last year was a halcyon period of higher growth and lower inflation, when annualized productivity increases of over 5 percent during the last two quarters gave us GDP growth averaging over 6 percent, while inflation and interest rates fell and earnings surged. These conditions were wonderful for the stock market. Fourth-quarter 2003 corporate profits were more than 20 percent above year earlier levels—nearly four times the average rate of increase over the past decade. The S rose over 40 percent between April 2003 and January 2004.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

4566. America Demands; China Supplies

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Say's Law, named after French economist Jean- Baptiste Say (1767–1832), was promulgated at the time of the Industrial Revolution when some feared that purchasing power would be insufficient to absorb the ever-growing output of the newly mechanized economy. It states simply and reassuringly that supply creates its own demand. More specifically, the production of output tends to generate purchasing power equal to the value of that output.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, America, and Asia

4567. Watch Growth, Not Exchange Rates

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The attention being paid to exchange rates and to utterances about them by finance ministers and central bankers is misplaced. It is distracting policymakers from tending to more serious issues such as global excess capacity and attendant deflation risks.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

4568. The Opposite of Stagflation

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The blissful combination of higher growth and lower inflation that has characterized the U.S. economy since last spring is the inverse of stagflation, the nightmare scenario that followed the oil shock of 1973–74, when higher oil prices produced lower output, lower growth, and higher inflation. The current cycle is fundamentally benign—more output at lower prices—but if policymakers fail to recognize it as such and ignore falling prices because output growth is strong, a global recession could occur.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

4569. As Good As It Gets

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Old habits die hard. Often, criticism leveled at policymakers is well founded. I certainly have offered up my share. But as 2003 ends and 2004 begins, we find ourselves at a point where the performance of the U.S. economy is about as good as it gets. The stock market is up 20 percent this year, inflation and interest rates are low, productivity growth is high, and U.S. exports are rising strongly. The biggest danger going forward arises from ill-founded criticism aimed at policy measures employed to achieve this excellent outcome and the (fortunately low) chance that policymakers will heed such criticism.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

4570. Globalization and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from within China

Author:
Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
China's recent accession to the WTO is expected to accelerate its integration into the world economy, which aggravates concerns over the impact of globalization on the already rising inter-region income inequality in China. This paper discusses China's globalization process and estimates an income generating function, incorporating trade and FDI variables. It then applies the newly developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of globalization, along with other variables, to regional inequality. It is found that (a) globalization constitutes a positive and substantial share to regional inequality and the share rises over time; (b) capital is one of the largest and increasingly important contributor to regional inequality; (c) economic reform characterized by privatization exerts a significant impact on regional inequality; and (d) the relative contributions of education, location, urbanization and dependency ratio to regional inequality have been declining.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia