Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Publication Year within 25 Years

4541. Diaspora: the World Wide Web of Australians

Author:
Michael Fullilove and Chloë Flutter
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On any given day, there are approximately one million Australians outside Australia, perhaps three-quarters of whom live offshore on a permanent or long term basis. This latter group, the 'Australian diaspora', is large and, in the main, prosperous, well educated, well connected, and well disposed to this country. It is also very mobile: rather than turning their backs on Australia once and for all, expatriates these days are more likely to move back and forward between Australia and other countries as opportunities present.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

4542. Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Park Yung Chul, and Jong-Wha Lee
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalances since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific. lowy institute for international policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

4543. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

4544. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

4545. The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

4546. The international economy in 2003: managing economic imbalances in an integrated world

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia. Using this theme as an organising principle, it reviews several major economic developments including US current account adjustment, international exchange rate adjustment in response to that process, growing Sino-US trade tensions, the increasing focus on international outsourcing and the stresses facing the current multilateral trading round. The Brief concludes by arguing that many of these same themes will influence international economic prospects over the coming year.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

4547. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4548. This Far and No Further? Nudging Agricultral Reform Forward

Author:
Tim Josling and Dale Hathaway
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As countries attempt to restart the stalled Doha Round and continue the negotiations on further agricultural trade reform and liberalization, it is useful to take stock of the progress made so far in the light of both the objectives of countries and the needs of the trading system. This policy brief reviews the main objectives of the agricultural talks in the World Trade Organization (WTO), examines the major proposals that emerged in the run-up to Cancún and at the ministerial itself, describes the emerging framework for further reform, and suggests ways in which the negotiations can build on this progress to achieve a worthwhile outcome.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America

4549. North American Agriculture under NAFTA

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The NAFTA agreement on agricultural trade consists of three bilateral agreements—between the United States and Mexico, the United States and Cana da, and Canada and Mexico. The US-Canada agreement largely carried into NAFTA the tariff and nontariff barrier rules that had been adopted in the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). Under CUSFTA, most agriculture tariffs between the United States and Canada were to be phased out by January 1998, and this schedule was adopted by NAFTA for US-Canada agricultural trade. However, Canada was allowed to maintain permanent tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) restrictions on imports of dairy, poultry, and eggs; and the United States was allowed to maintain TRQs on imports of sugar, dairy products, and peanuts from Canada (see table 1). Although a tariff snapback provision remains in effect until 2008, it has rarely been used by Canada. Agricultural trade between Mexico and Canada was limited by virtually the same restrictions. As might be expected, some agriculture trade associations favored NAFTA and others opposed. Box 1 summarizes the lineup of important trade associations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

4550. NAFTA Dispute Settlement Systems

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Building on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the NAFTA contains dispute settlement provisions in six separate areas. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping and countervailing duty decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated in the environment and labor chapters of this book.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Canada