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3831. Geeing up the G-20

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell and Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Globalisation implies a big increase in the payoffs from successful cross-border economic cooperation. Yet the main international institutional mechanisms designed to facilitate such cooperation, the G7 and the IMF, are not up to it. Both the G7’s membership and the IMF’s governance structure significantly under-represent several key players in the modern global economy, a potentially fatal handicap when it comes to tackling some of the most pressing challenges now facing policymakers. Moreover, neither gives Australia a permanent seat at the top table.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

3832. Roaring tiger or lumbering elephant?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In the past, there has been plenty of scepticism about India's economic prospects: for many, Charles De Gaulle's aphorism regarding Brazil, that it was a country with enormous potential, and always would be, seemed to apply equally well to the South Asian economy. While the 'tiger' economies of East Asia were enjoying economic take-off on the back of investment- and export-led growth, the lumbering Indian elephant seemed set to be a perpetual also-ran in the growth stakes. Yet following a series of reform efforts, first tentatively in the 1980s, and then with much more conviction in the 1990s, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and so too India's growth prospects. High profile successes in the new economy sectors of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO), along with faster economic growth, triggered a widespread rethink regarding India's economic prospects, and a wave of foreign portfolio investment flowed into Indian markets. Perhaps India was set to be a tiger after all.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, East Asia, Asia, and Brazil

3833. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

3834. Completing the Doha Round

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) was suspended indefinitely in late July 2006 after a succession of failed attempts to reach agree¬ment on the modalities for cutting farm subsidies and tariffs. Trade ministers are now consulting on how to put the WTO talks back on track. Without a rapid return to active negotiations, US officials may be relegated to the sidelines in Geneva due to the expiration of US trade promotion authority (TPA)—leaving the Doha Round adrift possibly until the next US administration takes office in 2009 or even longer.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements

3835. The Eurasian Growth Paradox

Author:
Nazgul Jenish and Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the first decade of postcommunist transition, multiple growth regressions showed that the more radical and comprehensive market economic reform was, the earlier a country returned to economic growth and the more vigorous its growth, and that Central Europe took the lead. Since 2000, however, the Commonweath of Independent States (CIS) countries have had more than 4 percentage points higher annual growth than the Central European countries. A regression analysis for 20 postcommunist countries shows, with strong significance, that reducing public expenditures has most effectively stimulated economic growth. As expected, oil exports are also positive and significant. The distance from the European Union is also positive and significant: that is, the further from the European Union, the higher the economic growth. The effect of corruption is negative for growth but only marginally significant. Neither the laggard effect nor investment reveals any significant effect. The conclusion is that at least among postcommunist countries more emphasis should be given to reducing public expenditures to boost economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Europe

3836. The External Policy of the Euro Area: Organizing for Foreign Exchange Intervention

Author:
C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Scholarship on European integration has extensively debated the external character of the monetary union. The institutions of exchange rate policymaking bear substantially on the euro area's role in international monetary conflict and cooperation. This working paper examines the institutional arrangements for foreign exchange intervention within the euro area and the policymaking surrounding the market operations of autumn 2000—the only case to date of euro area intervention in currency markets. Drawing on interviews of officials in finance ministries, central banks, European institutions, and international organizations, as well as public sources, the paper specifies the division of labor among the European Central Bank (ECB), Euro group, and other European actors and compares that arrangement with corresponding arrangements in the G-7 partners. It concludes, among other things, that (1) the interinstitutional understanding within the euro area gives substantial latitude to the ECB, greater latitude than held by central banks in its G-7 partners, (2) but the understanding is susceptible to renegotiation over time, and (3) economic divergence within the euro area potentially threatens the ability of the monetary union to act coherently externally.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

3837. Offshoring in Europe-Evidence of a Two-Way Street from Denmark

Author:
Nicolai Laugesen, Jacob Kirkegaard, and Peter Jensen
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Based on a large Danish survey of companies in tradable goods and services sectors, this working paper presents the results of offshoring and its impact on jobs, adding new perspectives to the globalization debate. Globalization entails a cross-border flow of jobs, but contrary to the mainstream media portrayal of globalization, it is not a one-way but a two-way street. In 2002–05 more jobs were created as a result of offshoring of activities into eastern Denmark from companies outside Denmark (i.e., inshored to Denmark) than were eliminated due to off shoring from companies in the Danish region. Overall, the employment effects of both off shoring and in shoring were found to be limited to less than 1 percent of all jobs either lost to offshoring or gained via inshoring. For Denmark, the worries in purely numerical terms regarding the employment effects of globalization seem overly alarmist. However, the trends revealed in the study do pose challenges for low-skilled workers—the group most negatively affected—and for highly skilled specialists, who face pressure to constantly upgrade their skills. Policy implications can be drawn in view of our results to ensure that labor markets are able to meet the demands of globalizing firms.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

3838. Can Doha Still Deliver on the Development Agenda?

Author:
Kimberly Elliott
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, so named because it was launched in the Qatari capital, is in deep trouble. Negotiators have yet to meet any of the interim deadlines for completing the talks, and they missed another at the end of April 2006. While it is still possible to finish the round by early 2007, the odds are diminishing by the day, and this deadline matters more than most. Trade promotion authority (TPA) in the United States will expire in June 2007, and if the round does not make significant progress before then, TPA might not be renewed, and the round would likely drag on for several more years.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

3839. Negotiating the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott, Scott C. Bradford, and Thomas Moll
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Five years ago the Institute published Free Trade between Korea and the United States? by Inbom Choi and Jeffrey J. Schott, which analyzed the potential benefits and costs of pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). At the time, neither government had vetted the idea in bilateral consultations, though some business groups in each country—and some members of the US Congress—had voiced support for deepening US-Korea economic ties through an FTA.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Korea

3840. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia