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3822. A Stability and Social Investment Facility for High Debt Countries
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall and Kemal Derviş
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A number of high-debt emerging-market economies face structural, long-term debt problems that tend to keep their growth rates low, that impart an unequalizing bias to the growth process, that severely constrain social spending and human development, and that make them vulnerable to capital flow reversals. Unless the nature and pace of growth can be improved in these lower-middle income countries, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are unlikely to be met either in many of these countries, or globally. These high-debt emerging-market economies face an impossible choice between draconian and never-ending fiscal austerity, or crisis and a “debt event.” Both “bitter pills" impose high social and economic costs.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Debt, Economics, and International Organization
3823. Stormy Days on an Open Field: Asymmetries in the Global Economy
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Openness is not necessarily good for the poor. Reducing trade protection has not brought growth to today's poorest countries, and open capital markets have not been good for the poorest households in emerging market economies. In this paper I present evidence on these two points. First, countries highly dependent on primary exports two decades ago, despite their substantial engagement in trade and a marked decline in their tariff rates in the 1990s, have failed to grow. Second, within high-debt emerging market economies the financial crises of the last decade, whether induced by domestic policy problems or global contagion, have been especially costly for the poor (in welfare terms if not in terms of absolute income losses). I discuss the asymmetries in the global economy that help explain why countries and people cannot always compete on equal terms on the “level playing field” of the global economy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
3824. Privatization--A Summary Assessment
- Author:
- John Nellis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In the last 25 years many thousands of formerly state-owned and operated firms have been privatized in developing and transition countries, generating over $400 billion (US) in sales proceeds. In addition, thousands of firms have been transferred by privatization processes in which no money was raised (though a surprising number of state-owned firms remain in these regions). The vast majority of economic studies praise privatization's positive impact at the level of the firm, as well as its positive macroeconomic and welfare contributions. Moreover, contrary to popular conception, privatization has not contributed to maldistribution of income or increased poverty——at least in the best-studied Latin American cases. In sum, the technical picture is generally positive. Nonetheless, public opinion in the less developed world is generally suspicious of, and often hostile to, privatization. A good part of the problem is that privatization has proven harder to launch, and is more likely to produce errant results, in low-income, institutionally weak states, particularly in the most important infrastructure sectors. Privatization is hard to sell politically; it has become a lightning rod and handy scapegoat for all discontent related to liberalization and globalization. What is needed are reform mechanisms that give incentives and comfort to reputable private investors, that create and sustain the policy and regulatory institutions that make governments competent and honest partners with the private operators, while at the same time protecting consumers, particularly the most disadvantaged, from abuse.</p
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
3825. Nigeria's Faltering Federal Experiment
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nigeria's federal system and politics are deeply flawed, contributing to rising violence that threatens to destabilise one of Africa's leading countries. Failing to encourage genuine power sharing, they have sparked dangerous rivalries between the centre and the 36 states over revenue from the country's oil and other natural resources; promoted no-holds-barred struggles between interests groups to capture the state and its attendant wealth; and facilitated the emergence of violent ethnic militias, while politicians play on and exacerbate inter-communal tensions to cover up their corruption. The government has been quick to brand many of the symptoms, especially the rise of militancy, as simple criminality to be dealt with by more police and more troops. But unless it engages with the underlying issues of resource control, equal rights, power sharing and accountability, Nigeria will f ace an internal crisis of increasing proportions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
3826. Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia's Uribe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Alvaro Uribe was overwhelmingly reelected in May 2006, two months after parties supporting him won large majorities in the Congress. The armed forces are stronger than they have ever been, and U.S. aid appears relatively secure. As he begins his second four-year term, Uribe seems to be in a stronger position to tackle Colombia's long-standing problems: drug trafficking, the internal conflict, continued lack of security and poverty in rural areas, corruption, and social inequality. But appearances may be deceiving. His governing coalition is fractious, his popularity vulnerable to what a still powerful insurgency chooses to do. He has yet to define a comprehensive second-term strategy for peace and development that addresses these issues and puts a priority on bringing rural Colombia into the political, economic and social mainstream.
- Topic:
- Economics, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, and South America
3827. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Pervez Musharraf and the military are responsible for the worsening of the conflict in Balochistan. Tensions between the government and its Baloch opposition have grown because of Islamabad's heavy-handed armed response to Baloch militancy and its refusal to negotiate demands for political and economic autonomy. The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 sparked riots and will likely lead to more confrontation. The conflict could escalate if the government insists on seeking a military solution to what is a political problem and the international community, especially the U.S., fails to recognise the price that is involved for security in neighbouring Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
3828. Central Asia: What Role for the European Union?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The European Union is not living up to its potential as a geopolitical actor in Central Asia. The level of EU interest has been low, and Brussels is doing little to shape developments in a region that has mostly seen marked declines in its economic fortunes, political freedoms and social development in recent years but remains of considerable strategic significance. If this is to change, Europe must move away from largely unsuccessful policies, particularly the promotion of region-wide projects, and take on a more focused and active role geared to the distinct characteristics of each of the region's five states. It needs also to raise the level of its representation, spend more money and stick to its political ideals if it is to have a positive impact.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
3829. Liberia: Resurrecting the Justice System
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Reform of the justice system needs to be a top priority for Liberia's new government and donors alike. After fourteen years of civil war, the system is in shambles. Impunity prevails, and in this atmosphere, the government cannot adequately address economic governance, transformation of the military and reconstruction of war- scarred physical infrastructure – all primary areas for reform and reconstitution in 2006. Courts that do not prosecute those who siphon resources from government coffers impede progress in all other areas. Within the next six months, stronger and impartial mechanisms are required in both the statutory and customary law systems, and community-based justice programs should be created.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Liberia
3830. Nigeria: Want in the Midst of Plenty
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation and perhaps also its most poorly understood. It has endured six successful and numerous failed military coups, a civil war that cost well over a million lives, three inconclusive transitions to democracy and recurrent factional violence. Despite more than $400 billion in oil revenue since the early 1970s, the economy under performs, and the great majority of citizens have benefited little. More effective institution building is imperative.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria