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3422. China's March on the 21st Century
- Author:
- Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- After a protracted period of uncertainty concerning the nature of the foreign policy challenges that are likely to confront the nation over the course of first half of the 21st century, twin challenges are now coming into sharper relief. For the next generation or more, Americans will be confronted by two overriding (and possibly overwhelming) challenges in the conduct of American foreign policy: how to more effectively wage a long, twilight struggle against violent Islamic fundamentalists, and at the same time cope with the almost certain rise to great power status of China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
3423. Minds on Fire: Enhancing India's Knowledge Workforce
- Author:
- Richard P. Adler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- India's economy continues to grow at a remarkable pace. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) has been expanding an average of nearly 8 percent per year since 2002. In the fiscal year ending March 2007, India's economy grew at 9.4 percent. This performance means that the Indian economy met its own national five-year growth goal for the first time since the first five-year plan was issued by the government in 1950. At its current rate of growth, India will become a trillion-dollar economy by 2007–2008 and will overtake South Korea to become Asia's third-largest economy, after China and Japan.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Education, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Asia, and South Korea
3424. The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration
- Author:
- Gordon H. Hanson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Illegal immigration is a source of mounting concern for politicians in the United States. In the past ten years, the U.S. population of illegal immigrants has risen from five million to nearly twelve million, prompting angry charges that the country has lost control over its borders. Congress approved measures last year that have significantly tightened enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border in an effort to stop the flow of unauthorized migrants, and it is expected to make another effort this year at the first comprehensive reform of immigration laws in more than twenty years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Mexico
3425. The Case for Wage Insurance
- Author:
- Robert LaLonde
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- An important component of U.S. productivity growth and economic competitiveness is a flexible labor market that shifts workers quickly into the jobs where they are most needed. Much of the time, this job shifting is fairly painless: Workers quickly find new positions that pay at least as much as their previous ones, often without an intervening spell of unemployment. But prime-aged and older workers can sometimes suffer large, long-term income losses. Such workers' well-founded fears about job displacement lead them and their advocates to resist policies such as free trade that are sometimes blamed for the job shifting. This resistance harms the majority of households because trade helps to lower prices, raise real incomes and promote economic growth. It also has foreign policy consequences since it threatens the United States' ability to play its traditional post–World War II role as the bulwark of a relatively open international trading system. And by reducing the dynamism of the U.S. economy, resistance to trade and other pro-growth policies can weaken the nation's long-term ability to exert global leadership.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
3426. Reform of the International Monetary Fund
- Author:
- Peter B. Kenen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and India
3427. Nigeria: Elections and Continuing Challenges
- Author:
- Robert I. Rotberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Nigeria's vital importance for Africa's political development, for U.S. and European interests, and for world order cannot be exaggerated. Nigeria's sheer aggregate numbers—possibly as many as 150 million of the full continent's 800 million—and its proportionate weight in sub-Saharan Africa' s troubled affairs, make the country's continuing evolution from military dictatorship to stable, sustained democracy critical.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Nigeria
3428. Bubbles in real estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The downturn in the US housing market has attracted a lot of attention as it has sparked a global financial crisis. It is generally assumed that the eurozone does not face a similar problem. This paper shows that this assumption is wrong. The euro area average index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (as that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is similar to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by over a decade of continuous decline. Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely. The lag is now much shorter than in the 1970s or 1980s. The euro area market is thus likely to turn soon as well. One feature of housing price cycles that tends to be forgotten is their extraordinary length: many last for more than ten years. This persistence means that the downswing, which now seems to have started, is likely to last at least until the next decade. Within the euro area, there are large divergences: cases of 'froth' (Spain, for example) co-exist alongside cases of declining prices (Germany). These divergences have persisted for over a decade and have led to important macroeconomic disequilibria. The paper also develops an indicator of 'housing overhang', which shows by how much demand for new construction has to decline to bring the supply of housing back to normal levels. This indicator suggests that there is virtually no housing overhang in the eurozone on average and that it is of a manageable magnitude in the US. Spain and Ireland, however, face a massive housing overhang and thus probably a sharp deceleration of construction demand.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
3429. Legal Immigration: Time for Europe to Play its Hand
- Author:
- Stefano Bertozzi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The European Commission has recently rekindled the debate about a possible future ruling on economic immigration, including the conditions and procedures for entry and residence, the principle of Community preference and the rights of third-country workers.The purpose of this paper is to recapitulate the main phases of Community action in the area of legal migration for economic reasons, starting with the political mandate given to the European Commission by the Tampere European Council. It moves on to outline the EU's current legislative programme to introduce policy instruments in 2007–09 for regulating the migration of specific categories of workers, some of which are aimed at easing the entry of highly skilled workers. It underscores the case for cohesive EU action in this controversial area in view of the need to improve the economic competitiveness of the EU and the risks posed by its ageing population.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3430. Economic Justice in an Unfair World: Toward a Level Playing Field by Ethan B. Kapstein
- Author:
- Richard Jolly
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Carnegie Council
- Abstract:
- "Economic Justice in an Unfair World" is a stimulating, well-researched book combining economic analysis, political philosophy, and contemporary policy, all focused on one key question: What does one mean by economic justice in a world cut through by inequalities of income, bargaining power, and human poverty?
- Topic:
- Economics