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2872. Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home
- Author:
- Mark P Thirlwell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem ? On 16 November 2008, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. When they meet in Pittsburgh, on 24 September 2009, they will have an opportunity to review that commitment and to decide how best to act on it. The advice they have received to date focuses on international monitoring and short-term responses to the global economic crisis. These measures do little to deal with the underlying causes of protectionism.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
2873. External imbalances and the G20
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
2874. The Gloomy Prospects for World Growth
- Author:
- Steven Dunaway
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The seeds of the current economic and financial crisis were sown by economic policies of the major countries that fostered the growth of global imbalances during the 2000s. Consequently, an essential element in any assessment of prospects for world economic recovery and the pace of future growth has to factor in exactly how these imbalances are likely to unwind—or fail to be resolved—in the period immediately ahead.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
2875. Russian outward FDI and its policy context
- Author:
- Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
2876. Economic Conditions and U.S. National Security in the 1930s and Today
- Author:
- Martin S. Feldstein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This paper comments on the experience of the U.S. economy in the 1930s, its lessons for managing the current economic downturn, and the relation of U.S. economic conditions to our future national security. Some of the conclusions are: (1) Although the current recession will be long and very damaging, it is not likely to deteriorate into conditions similar to the Depression of the 1930s. Policy makers now understand better than they did in the 1930s what needs to be done and what needs to be avoided. (2) The focus on domestic economic policies in the 1930s and the desire to remain militarily neutral delayed the major military buildup that eventually achieved the economic recovery. (3) A well-functioning system of bank lending is necessary for economic expansion. We have yet to achieve that in the current situation. (4) Raising taxes, even future taxes, can depress economic activity. The administration's budget proposes to raise tax rates on higher income individuals, on dividends and capital gains, on corporate profits and on all consumers through the cap and trade system of implicit CO2 taxes. (5) Inappropriate trade policies and domestic policies that affect the exchange rate can hurt our allies, leading to conflicts that spill over from economics to impair national security cooperation. Reducing long-term U.S. fiscal deficits would reduce the risk of inflation and thereby reduce the fear among foreign investors that their dollar investments will lose their purchasing power. (6) The possibilities for domestic terrorism and of cyber attacks creates risks that did not exist in the 1930s or even in more recent decades. The scale and funding of the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security is not consistent with these new risks.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
2877. How Urban Planners Caused the Housing Bubble
- Author:
- Randal O'Toole
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Everyone agrees that the recent financial crisis started with the deflation of the housing bubble. But what caused the bubble? Answering this question is important both for identifying the best short-term policies and for fixing the credit crisis, as well as for developing long-term policies aimed at preventing another crisis in the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, California, and Georgia
2878. Would a Stricter Fed Policy and Financial Regulation Have Averted the Financial Crisis?
- Author:
- Jagadeesh Gokhale and Peter Van Doren
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust—and the subsequent financial crisis and recession—would have been averted. In this paper, we investigate those claims and dispute them. We are skeptical that economists can detect bubbles in real time through technical means with any degree of unanimity. Even if they could, we doubt the Fed would have altered its policy in the early 21st century, and we suspect that political leaders would have exerted considerable pressure to maintain that policy. Concerning regulation, we find that the banking reform of the late 1990s had little effect on the housing boom and bust, and that the many reform ideas currently proposed would have done little or nothing to avert the crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
2879. Yes, Mr. President: A Free Market Can Fix Health Care
- Author:
- Michael F. Cannon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In March 2009, President Barack Obama said, “If there is a way of getting this done where we're driving down costs and people are getting health insurance at an affordable rate, and have choice of doctor, have flexibility in terms of their plans, and we could do that entirely through the market, I'd be happy to do it that way.” This paper explains how letting workers control their health care dollars and tearing down regulatory barriers to competition would control costs, expand choice, improve health care quality, and make health coverage more secure.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
2880. Global Imbalances, National Rebalancing, and the Political Economy of Recovery
- Author:
- Jeffry A. Frieden
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- When the leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies met in Pittsburgh at the end of September 2009, the topic of “rebalancing” the world economy was high on the agenda. The final com- muniqué's first substantive commitment was “to work together as we manage the transition to a more balanced patter n of global growth.” There were good reasons for this focus. Global macroeconomic imbalances—massive borrowing by some countries and massive lending by others—drove the financial boom and bubble that eventually burs t into the current crisis. There is now nearly universal agreement that such imbalances cannot be sustained, and that the former deficit and surplus nations need to move toward macroeconomic balance.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis