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261. Korea faces opportunities as well as risks under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
South Korea participates in several regional trade and investment arrangements, including the bilateral Korea-China Free Trade Agreement, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); it has also joined the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) and is considering following China’s example and applying for membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). All these initiatives are complementary and open to a broad range of countries and separate customs territories. The US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) would largely reinforce Korea’s benefits from other economic integration pacts, but in key respects it could build barricades instead of bridges to nonmember countries. The authors examine the progress in building IPEF, how the four IPEF pillars would advance and/or constrain Korean policy, and what the impact could be on Korea’s economic relations with major trading nations in the region, including China, which shares membership with Korea in important pacts like RCEP. The key challenge for Korea in IPEF will be to balance its relationships with China while deepening its economic and security ties with the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

262. A reform option for pension fund contribution as tax expenditure in South Africa

Author:
Ada Jansen, Winele Ngobeni, and Wynnona Steyn
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa has a progressive broad-based personal income tax system with relatively few tax expenditures. The two most important are the medical contribution plus additional tax credits for medical expenses, and the deductions allowed for retirement contributions. A pertinent question for tax reform in South Africa is whether redistributive gains can be achieved by restructuring expenditures in the personal income tax system. This paper considers the redistributive implications of converting the tax deduction for retirement contributions to a tax credit. This would build on the gains achieved by introducing a medical tax credit system in 2012. We analyse the tax revenue gains/losses of income groups and in total in terms of distributional effects and progressivity outcomes using a static microsimulation model based on data for the 2019/20 tax year. We find a high concentration of taxpayers in terms of taxable income and retirement contributions. The concentration of contributions is highly skewed towards lower- and middle-income earners, whose annual contribution amounts are low compared with higher-income earners. We recommend a conversion rate that considers the current distribution of taxpayers contributing to retirement funds. Converting the pension contribution deduction to a tax credit would raise additional revenue and make the tax system more progressive, benefiting low-income earners with marginal tax rates of less than the proposed conversion rate. The revenue gained would provide increased fiscal space to fund social expenditure or reduce government debt. Further distributional and behavioural analyses are needed on low-income earners and those earning below/above the minimum tax threshold, to refine understanding of the impact on low-and middle-income earners’ contributions to retirement funds.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Tax Systems, and Pension
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

263. Differential bunching impacts across the income distribution: Evidence from Zambian tax administrative data

Author:
Samuel Bryson, Kwabena Adu-Ababio, Evaristo Mwale, and John Rand
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We investigate the behavioural responses of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates applying empirical bunching methodology to tax administrative data from Zambia over the period from 2014 to 2021. We find evidence for excess bunching at the first kink in the tax schedule for all years but less evidence of bunching at the second and third thresholds. While bunching is considerable and behavioural responses are observed to changes in the location of the kinks over time, bunching at reference points (‘round-number bunching’) also appears large. Implied elasticities of taxable income are however not remarkable, and comparing actual and estimated counterfactual wage distributions reveal that missed tax revenue arising from the excess bunching is limited. This is consistent with the observed bunching reacting sharply and immediately to changes in the location of the kink points over time, suggesting that observed behavioural change is driven by reporting behaviour rather than real economic responses.
Topic:
Economics, Tax Systems, Income, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

264. Adverse Selection Among Early Adopters and Unraveling Innovation

Author:
Rory McGee
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:
I provide an equilibrium analysis of “selection markets”: where consumers not only vary in how much they are willing to pay, but also in how much they cost to the seller. The model provides a joint explanation for three empirical phenomena: low uptake of existing products, slow demand for new products, and market inactivity despite unmet demand. I characterize when early adopters are more adversely selected in new markets. This lowers demand, increases costs, and leads markets to unravel prematurely. With endogenous market entry for new products (e.g., reverse mortgages, annuities), extended patents serve as de facto time-varying subsidies.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

265. From opportunity to impact – Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Canada in 2022

Author:
Hamilton Galloway and Alice Gambarin
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This study presents an updated assessment of YouTube’s contribution to Canada’s GDP and employment, and its broader impact on society and culture. Every day, YouTube helps Canadian users to learn new skills, connect with others, and enrich their lives. It also provides a platform for a diverse range of content creators to share their interests and passions with audiences within Canada and beyond, creating opportunities to build new careers and businesses. This supports substantial economic value for creators who receive income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. Creators may also earn revenues from other sources that are helped by their YouTube presence. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in their supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modeling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed more than $2 billion CAD to Canada’s economy in 2022 and supported more than 35,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we provide further details of our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can sustain careers for content creators; help businesses grow; build skills; amplify Canadian talent; and drive cultural diversity. Alongside the findings from our economic modeling and surveys, the report presents a series of case studies to highlight the personal stories of successful Canadian content creators, ranging from financial literacy to cross-cultural cuisine.
Topic:
Economics, Culture, YouTube, Society, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

266. The Economics of Reduced-Risk Products: Global policy landscape and principles for policy treatment

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Heated Tobacco Products (HTPs) and vapour products (e.g., e-cigarettes) are new categories of Reduced-Risk Products (RRPs) in the tobacco market that have gained in popularity in recent years, with global sales of approximately US $20 billion each in 2020. In response, the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) has generally advocated a precautionary stance. For HTPs that can mean imposing equivalent fiscal and non-fiscal rules that are applied to combustible tobacco products. For e-cigarettes, it can mean strict controls on usage, with a focus on protecting vulnerable groups. However, pursuing a harsh stance towards RRPs could potentially limit policymakers’ options for mitigating health risks, and puts at risk the positive economic footprint supported by the RRP industry, in terms of the GDP, jobs, wages, and large R&D investments it supports. Against this backdrop, we propose three key principles that regulating authorities should adhere to for optimal outcomes in their approach to RRPs: tailor restrictions on RRP usage to different groups; differentiate the treatment of RRPs from combustible tobacco products; and incentivise innovation in industry to achieve better health outcomes at the population level.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Regulation, Innovation, Tobacco, and Reduced-Risk Products
Political Geography:
Global Focus

267. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

268. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:
Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

269. Misperceptions of OPEC Capability and Behavior: Unmasking OPEC Theater

Author:
David Kemp and Peter Van Doren
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the view of the American public, media, and politicians, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets oil prices by adjusting the amount of crude oil its members produce. However, the geological and engineering realities of oil extraction, the inconclusive academic evidence on the relationship between OPEC production and oil prices, and the cheating on oil production quotas by OPEC members and lack of enforcement all indicate that OPEC is more a political club than an effective oil cartel. In fact, three key members—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—have oil production volatility similar to the United States over the past three decades. This implies that these three important and politically stable OPEC nations do not possess, or do not utilize, a unique short-term capability to alter their oil production to regulate oil prices. Altogether, the evidence suggests that the attention paid to OPEC is mostly about political benefits to both OPEC members and Western leaders, not an actual ability to control the oil market. The OPEC members use their oil production as an international bargaining chip and the perception of influence over the West to gain domestic legitimacy. Western leaders are happy to reciprocate by using OPEC as a scapegoat for unpleasant oil supply or demand shocks. Based on this picture of OPEC, U.S. concerns about OPEC behavior are unfounded and legislative proposals to punish OPEC are misguided.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, OPEC, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

270. Trade and Investment Are Not a Balancing Act

Author:
Norbert Michel
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The trade deficit is the amount by which the value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports during a given period, such as one calendar year or quarter. It is a commonly misunderstood concept that inspires harmful economic policies, such as proposals that a country “balance” its imports and exports by taxing international capital flows. Supporters of this policy hope to shrink the trade deficit (i.e., to balance imports and exports) by taxing the capital surplus that goes along with a trade deficit in the balance-of-payments framework. In the United States, senators Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) and Josh Hawley (R‑MO) authored a 2019 bill to do this and, though it died in the Senate Banking Committee, similar legislation may appear in the future. This kind of policy is highly flawed on theoretical, empirical, and practical grounds. For starters, trade deficits and capital surpluses are merely part of a national accounting system that includes multiple arbitrarily assigned categories. In fact, even the concept of balancing in the national accounting system is not as straightforward as supporters of balancing trade flows suggest. The evidence demonstrates that there is no clear negative relationship between a trade imbalance and a country’s optimal economic performance, especially regarding employment in manufacturing, which is a common concern among politicians. At best, taxing international capital flows would fail to change the incentives that drive US consumers’ high demand for imports. At worst, it would cause a global economic recession that impoverishes millions of people and makes Americans poorer.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America