Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2682. Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research
- Author:
- Christopher Blattman and Edward Miguel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Most nations have experienced an internal armed conflict since 1960. The past decade has witnessed an explosion of research into the causes and consequences of civil wars, belatedly bringing the topic into the economics mainstream. This article critically reviews this interdisciplinary literature and charts productive paths forward. Formal theory has focused on a central puzzle: why do civil wars occur at all when, given the high costs of war, groups have every incentive to reach an agreement that avoids fighting? Explanations have focused on information asymmetries and the inability to sign binding contracts in the absence of the rule of law. Economic theory has made less progress, however, on the thornier (but equally important) problems of why armed groups form and cohere, and why individuals decide to fight. Likewise, the actual behavior of armed organizations and their leaders is poorly understood. On the empirical side, a vast cross-country econometric literature has aimed to identify the causes of civil war. While most work is plagued by econometric identification problems, low per capita incomes, slow economic growth and geographic conditions favoring insurgency are the factors most robustly linked to civil war. We argue that micro-level analysis and data are needed to truly decipher war's causes, and understand the recruitment, organization, and conduct of armed groups. Recent advances in this area are highlighted. Finally, turning to the economic legacies of war, we frame the literature in terms of neoclassical economic growth theory. Emerging stylized facts include the ability of some economies to experience rapid macroeconomic recoveries, while certain human capital impacts appear more persistent. Yet econometric identification has not been adequately addressed, and there is little consensus on the most effective policies to avert conflicts or promote postwar recovery. The evidence is weakest where it is arguably most important: in understanding civil wars' effects on institutions, technology, and social norms.
- Topic:
- Economics, Peace Studies, Political Economy, and War
2683. Heckle and Chide: Results of a Randomized Road Safety Intervention in Kenya
- Author:
- James Habyarimana and William Jack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In economies with weak enforcement of traffic regulations, drivers who adopt excessively risky behavior impose externalities on other vehicles, and on their own passengers. In light of the difficulties of correcting inter-vehicle externalities associated with weak third-party enforcement, this paper evaluates an intervention that aims instead to correct the intra-vehicle externality between a driver and his passengers, who face a collective action problem when deciding whether to exert social pressure on the driver if their safety is compromised. We report the results of a field experiment aimed at solving this collective action problem, which empowers passengers to take action. Evocative messages encouraging passengers to speak up were placed inside a random sample of over 1,000 long-distance Kenyan minibuses, or matatus, serving both as a focal point for, and to reduce the cost of, passenger action. Independent insurance claims data were collected for the treatment group and a control group before and after the intervention. Our results indicate that insurance claims fell by a half to two-thirds, from an annual rate of about 10 percent without the intervention, and that claims involving injury or death fell by at least 50 percent. Results of a driver survey eight months into the intervention suggest passenger heckling was a contributing factor to the improvement in safety.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
2684. The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
- Author:
- Mohsin S. Khan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The creation of a monetary union has been the primary objective of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members since the early 1980s. Significant progress has already been made in regional economic integration: The GCC countries have largely unrestricted intraregional mobility of goods, labor, and capital; regulation of the banking sector is being harmonized; and in 2008 the countries established a common market. Further, most of the convergence criteria established for entry into a monetary union have already been achieved. In establishing a monetary union, however, the GCC countries must decide on the exchange rate regime for the single currency. The countries' use of a US dollar peg as an external anchor for monetary policy has so far served them well, but rising inflation and differing economic cycles from the United States in recent years have raised the question of whether the dollar peg remains the best policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
2685. A Better Way to Generate and Use Comparative-Effectiveness Research
- Author:
- Michael F. Cannon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama, former U.S. Senate majority leader Tom Daschle, and others propose a new government agency that would evaluate the relative effectiveness of medical treatments. The need for “comparative-effectiveness research” is great. Evidence suggests Americans spend $700 billion annually on medical care that provides no value. Yet patients, providers, and purchasers typically lack the necessary information to distinguish between high- and low-value services.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Health, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2686. Health-Status Insurance: How Markets Can Provide Health Security
- Author:
- John H. Cochrane
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- None of us has health insurance, really. If you develop a long-term condition such as heart disease or cancer, and if you then lose your job or are divorced, you can lose your health insurance. You now have a preexisting condition, and insurance will be enormously expensive—if it's available at all. Free markets can solve this problem, and provide life-long, portable health security, while enhancing consumer choice and competition. “Heath-status insurance” is the key. If you are diagnosed with a long-term, expensive condition, a health-status insurance policy will give you the resources to pay higher medical insurance premiums. Health-status insurance covers the risk of premium reclassification, just as medical insurance covers the risk of medical expenses. With health-status insurance, you can always obtain medical insurance, no matter how sick you get, with no change in out-of-pocket costs.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Markets, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2687. Financial Crisis and Public Policy
- Author:
- Jagadeesh Gokhale
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- This Policy Analysis explains the antecedents of the current global financial crisis and critically examines the reasoning behind the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve's actions to prop up the financial sector. It argues that recovery from the financial crisis is likely to be slow with or without the government's bailout actions. An oil price spike and a wealth shock in housing initiated the financial crisis. Declines in stock values are intensifying that shock, threatening to deepen the current recession as U.S. consumers and investors cut their expenditures. An offsetting wealth injection from additional risk-bearing investors could initiate a quicker recovery. Thus, supporters of government intervention justify the bailout's debt-financed fund injections—in essence, they want to compel future taxpayers to join the group of today's risk bearing investors.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
2688. Bright Lines and Bailouts: To Bail or Not To Bail, That Is the Question
- Author:
- Vern McKinley and Gary Gegenheimer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- A financial-institution bailout involves government intervention through a transaction or forbearance targeted to a financial institution or group of financial institutions. The action is preemptive as the financial institution does not fail and go out of business, but remains a going concern, benefiting creditors, shareholders, or counterparties. In the absence of a bailout, the financial institution would either be forced to go through receivership or bankruptcy in the prescribed legal form, or have its role in financial intermediation disrupted.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- United States
2689. The Transatlantic Economy 2009
- Author:
- Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- After a five-year boom in prosperity, the transatlantic economy has fallen into what could be perhaps its deepest recession since World War II. Although the U.S. was the epicenter of the financial crisis, many European banks have exposure to U.S. subprime loans and embraced the risky lending practices of their American counterparts. The financial crisis and attendant recession underscore the deep integration of the transatlantic economy. Notions of “decoupling” are mistaken and are likely to lead to serious policy errors. Never before have Europeans and Americans had a greater stake in each other's economic success. Each has a substantial interest in the other's ability to weather current difficulties and to emerge in sound shape from the crisis.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
2690. Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict
- Author:
- Paul Stevens
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent events between Russia and Ukraine at the start of 2009 and Russia and Georgia in 2008 have brought transit pipelines back into the media spotlight. Any reading of the history of transit oil and gas pipelines suggests a tendency to produce conflict and disagreement, often resulting in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. It is tempting to attribute this to bad political relations between neighbours. This is certainly part of the story, but also important is the nature of the 'transit terms' – tariffs and offtake terms – whereby transit countries are rewarded for allowing transit. Put simply, the trouble with transit pipelines has a significant economic basis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, Markets, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia