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2561. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2010

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) published by the International Monetary Fund in April 2010 (IMF 2010a). It is part of what has now become an annual cycle drawing out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run equilibrium position. This year we also published an interim report (Cline and Williamson 2010), partly drawing on the October 2009 WEO but essentially examining the implications of the pattern of market exchange rates as of January 1, 2010 for how misaligned currencies were at that time, assuming that the FEERs estimated in June 2009 were correct. In this publication we have estimated the FEERs anew on the basis of revisions in the methods employed and new data presented in the April 2010 WEO, after incorporating adjustments to the IMF forecast needed to take account of recent changes in exchange rates and especially the euro.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy

2562. In Defense of Europe's Grand Bargain

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Nothing is easier than pointing fingers at policymakers woring feverishly at 2 a.m. to contain a rapidly spreading financial crisis. Rarely has this been truer for the European Union than during the current crisis's amateurish policy management. Yet, what really matters is the final result, which is far more postive for Europe than the ugly sausage-making process.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

2563. Hobbling Exports and Destroying Jobs

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US House of Representatives has just passed the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act (HR 4213). This bill will hurt American workers, reduce American exports, and make American companies less competitive in the international marketplace. Since the US Senate has already passed companion legislation, the American Workers, State, and Business Relief Act (S 3336), these ill-considered bills could soon be reconciled in conference and become the law of the land. If so, American firms and workers will pay the price.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and America

2564. Higher Taxes on Multinationals Would Hurt US Workers and Exports

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As presidential candidate, Barack Obama repeatedly advocated tax “reforms” aimed squarely at US-based multinational enterprises (MNEs). As president, he again declared—in the same State of the Union address that laid out an ambitious goal for export expansion—that “it is time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs right here in the United States of America."
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

2565. Protection by Stealth: Using the Tax Law to Discriminate against Foreign Insurance Companies

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
These are difficult times. Not only are 10 percent of Americans unemployed but the federal budget is out of whack thanks to the specter of rising entitlement outlays. A natural impulse in difficult times is to protect domestic products and domestic producers. The tone of political economy during the global recession of 2007–09 is no different from that in past recessions—but louder because the economic damage is more severe. Emblematic of this spirit is a proposal to discriminate against foreign-owned insurance companies, using the tax code.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

2566. Beyond Population: Everyone Counts in Development

Author:
Joel E. Cohen
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This essay reviews some of the most important demographic trends expected to occur between 2010 and 2050, indicates some of their implications for economic and global development, and suggests some possible policies to respond these trends and implications. The interactions of population, economics, the environment, and culture are central. In the past decade, for the first time in history, old people outnumbered young people, urban people outnumbered rural people, and women of reduced fertility outnumbered women of high fertility. The century from 1950 to 2050 will have included the highest global population growth rate ever, the largest voluntary fall in the global population growth rate ever, and the most enormous shift ever in the demographic balance between the more developed regions of the world and the less developed ones. In the coming half century, according to most demographers, the world's population will grow older, larger (albeit more slowly), and more urban than in the 20th century, but with much variance within and across regions. No one knows what numbers and demographic characteristics of humans are sustainable, but it is clear that the prodigious stain of a billion or so chronically hungry people at present results from recent and ongoing collective human choices, not biophysical necessities. Concrete policy options to respond to demographic trends include providing universal primary and secondary education, particularly education for global and household civility; eliminating unmet needs for contraception and reproductive health; and implementing demographically sensitive urban planning, particularly construction for greater energy efficiency and friendliness to older people.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
Washington

2567. A Crisis Multiplied: How the global economic crisis, coming on top of other shocks, is worsening poverty in Burkina Faso

Author:
Elizabeth Stuart
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
It is a stable democracy, with an efficient and increasingly transparent government. The entire budget is published online. Strong education and health plans are in place, and the government promotes the use of generic medicines. In recent years growth has been consistently robust, at around 6 percent. The country hosts a world-renowned film festival. It has consistently sought to reform and modernize, just as the IMF and World Bank have prescribed. And, in turn, donors love to fund it. It was, for instance, one of the first countries to qualify for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) programme. So confident is the international community that its money will be in safe hands that it readily gives budget support – which is very positive, as this form of aid allows the government to fund recurrent expenditures such as teachers' and doctors' salaries, though from a donor's perspective it is more difficult to trace, in large amounts.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Poverty, Third World, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

2568. Economic Contractions in the United States: A Failure of Government

Author:
Mark Calabria
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Charles Rowley and Nathanael Smith have put together a brief, yet extensive, study comparing America's Great Depression and the recent financial crisis. Their focus is on both the economics and the politics behind these events. With both, they demonstrate how each was a failure of government, not of the market. The book concludes with several recommendations for addressing our nation's current economic and fiscal situation. The most original contribution of their work is in bringing a Public Choice framework to evaluating the financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

2569. The Evolution of Russian Conceptual and Political Models of High Technology Cooperation

Author:
Ivan V. Danilin
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
International cooperation in the area of high technology—in design and development, manufacturing, and distribution—is one of the most important features of the current state of innovation around the world. Outsourcing, the ability to search for talent globally, the lowering of costs by transferring production facilities to developing countries, the evolution of global supply chains, venture capitalists' tireless search for fresh ideas all over the world—all these and numerous other processes combine to shape the reality of modern highly internationalized, collaborative, and interconnected activities involved in developing innovative new technologies. Even during the recent global economic crisis, these trends persisted. In spite of the fact that Western multinational corporations (MNCs) dominate the market and still are key players in these processes, companies from China and other developing nations are actively joining the game. Russia, which has declared its intention to regain (on a new footing) its former leader- ship role in science and technology, is also looking at international cooperation in the area of high technology as a powerful and important instrument for the development of national networks of innovation and a strong innovative economy, in hopes of securing a significant future market share in global sales of high-technology goods and services. But unlike many other nations, Russia's path, strategies, and modes of cooperation are still in transition, and are affected not only by the logic of the globalized economy, but also by different political and economic challenges inherited from previous decades, as well as by the political visions of different groups of national elites.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia and China

2570. The Transatlantic Economy 2010: Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Despite the recession, the United States and Europe remain each other's most important foreign commercial markets. No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused as the transatlantic economy. We estimate that the transatlantic economy continues to generate close to $4.28 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually “onshored” jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe