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2492. Confronting Asset Bubbles, Too Big to Fail, and Beggar-thy- Neighbor Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- When pondering desirable reforms, I prefer to think about both the international financial system and the international monetary system because as this global crisis demonstrates so vividly, the root causes can come from both the financial and the monetary spheres and they can interact in a variety of ways. On the financial side, I want to emphasize two problems: pricking asset price bubbles before they get too large, and confronting “too big to fail.” On the monetary side, I want to concentrate on what can be done to discourage “beggar-thyneighbor” exchange rate policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
2493. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia
2494. Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In June 2009 we issued our annual update of estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) for 34 major economies (Cline and Williamson 2009). At that time the dollar had already begun correction from the substantial overvaluation that had arisen from the strong safe-haven effect associated with the global financial crisis of 2008–09. In this policy brief we report on changes in disequilibria in the exchange markets since the date those earlier calculations referred to, namely March 2009. We first present estimates of the extent of movement toward FEER-consistent bilateral dollar exchange rates from March to December 31, 2009, and then look at how effective exchange rates have altered in the same period. We also re-estimate the FEER-consistent dollar rate for one important currency, the Korean won.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Korea
2495. New PPP-Based Estimates of Renminbi Undervaluation and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Is there reason to add to the proliferating set of estimates on the extent of renminbi undervaluation (see among others, Bergsten 2010; Cline and Williamson 2008 and 2010; Goldstein and Lardy 2008 and 2009; Frankel 2008; Reisen 2009; and Lee et al. 2008)? Yes, not least because these new estimates: (1) suggest that purchasing power parity (PPP)-based approaches to measuring renminbi undervaluation suggest that China's currency is undervalued by about 30 percent against the dollar and not the 12 percent recently reported (Bajaj 2010); and (2) are closer to and consistent with alternative approaches to estimating renminbi undervaluation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
2496. The Substitution Account as a First Step Toward Reform of the International Monetary System
- Author:
- Peter B. Kenen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Today, the international monetary system is based largely on the US dollar, but reserve currency diversification has begun, thanks to the advent of the euro, and it is apt to continue. Eventually, the renminbi could acquire reserve currency status, and the resulting reserve currency diversification could be more disruptive than it has been to date. To forestall that possibility the quasi-currency issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), could be made to play a larger role in the international monetary system, precluding potentially disruptive diversification and achieving more orderly growth in the stock of international reserves.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
2497. The Winter of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks the Market
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On November 30, 2009, North Korea announced a reform to replace all currency in circulation with new bills and coins. North Korean officials have made no bones about their motivations: The “reform” constitutes a direct attack on the emerging market economy and the independence from state control that it represents. In an interview following the conversion, an official of the North Korean central bank noted that the reform was aimed at curbing private trade and underlined that North Korea is “not moving toward a free market economy but will further strengthen the principle and order of socialist economic management.”
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
2498. Hope Floats
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- January ended on a note of diminished hope for a sustainable global recovery as stock markets retreated from their midmonth highs. Since mid-February, however, higher hopes for a sustainable global recovery have returned. Equity markets have rallied along with markets for corporate and global sovereign bonds. Some mitigation of perceived risks facing global investors has provided a chance for hope to “float up,” and it has done so. Tension over the cohesion of the European Monetary Union and, in particular, concerns over a possible sovereign-debt default by Greece have eased, and investors continue to hope that the debt problems in Greece will not spread to the rest of Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
2499. Myths about Budget Deficits
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- February always brings with it the president's proposals for taxing and spending in the coming fiscal year. The president's budget proposals are accompanied by congressional and administration estimates of the path deficits and government debt are expected to take in coming years. Last year, those projections, especially a three-year string of actual and projected deficits over a trillion dollars from 2009 through 2011, excited widespread comment and handwringing about runaway deficits and their allegedly damaging effects in the form of lower growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
2500. The Year Ahead
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- We can expect 2010 to be a volatile year. This likelihood is underscored by looking back at 2008 and 2009. Two thousand eight was a highly volatile year leading up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, which was followed by the risk of a total systemic meltdown. That sharp and obvious risk spike prompted massive policy responses that were simply the largest that central banks, with rate cuts and liquidity provision, and governments, with tax cuts and spending increases, could manage. The result—beginning in March 2009—was a linear rise in the prices of risky assets, the result of massive relief once the slip into a global depression had been averted and the acute phase of the crisis in the financial sector had passed.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and Europe