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2341. Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The economic crisis has caused millions of migrant labourers from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to lose their jobs in the boom economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. Remittances that kept their relatives afloat have plummeted and many migrants have returned home to certain destitution, putting weak Central Asian governments under severe strain. In Tajikistan half the labour force is without work, while Kyrgyzstan suffers from massive rural unemployment. Before the crisis hit, up to five million people from these countries left home for Russia and Kazakhstan to take on poorly paid and unskilled jobs, often the unpleasant tasks that local people no longer wished to do. Yet at home they were viewed with respect: the most daring members of their society, who were willing to take a jump into the unknown to pull themselves and their families out of poverty. Remittances also boosted their home countries' economic data, allowing governments with little ability or interest in creating jobs to claim a modest degree of success. By 2008 remittances were providing the equivalent of half Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP), a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's GDP, and an eighth of Uzbekistan's.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

2342. "Dreams Don't Come True in Eritrea": Anomie and Family Disintegration due to the Structural Militarization of Society

Author:
Nicole Hirt
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article analyzes contemporary Eritrea's acute crisis within the framework of the theory of anomie. It is based on the hypothesis that militarization, forced labor, mass exodus, and family disintegration can be interpreted as the consequences of two incompatible norm and value systems: the collectivist, nationalistic, and militaristic worldview of the former liberation front and ruling party People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), and the traditional cultural system of Eritrea's society. In 2002 the regime introduced an unlimited "development campaign," thereby forcing large parts of the society to live as conscripts and perform unpaid labor. This has caused a mass exodus of young people and a rapid process of family disintegration. The article is based on empirical fieldwork and evaluates the ongoing developments, which have led to rapid economic decline and the destabilization of the entire fabric of society.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Migration, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Eritrea

2343. Saudi Public Backs Iran Sanctions but Split on Military Action

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A highly unusual and credible private poll of Saudi citizens taken in late November 2009 by a reputable regional firm shows solid popular support for tough measures against Iran, even though domestic economic issues loom larger in the public's perception. Conducted in partnership with Pechter Middle East Polls, a new, Princeton-based research organization, the survey involved face-to-face interviews with a representative sample of 1,000 Saudi citizens in the major metropolitan areas of Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam/al-Khobar. A comparable poll was conducted in Egypt during the same period, with a representative national sample of 1,000.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

2344. Nigeria: A Prime Example of the Resource Curse? Revisiting the Oil-Violence Link in the Niger Delta

Author:
Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the oil-violence link in the Niger Delta, systematically taking into consideration domestic and international contextual factors. The case study, which focuses on explaining the increase in violence since the second half of the 1990s, confirms the differentiated interplay of resource-specific and non-resource-specific causal factors. With regard to the key contextual conditions responsible for violence, the results underline the basic relevance of cultural cleavages and political-institutional and socioeconomic weakness that existed even before the beginning of the “oil era.” Oil has indirectly boosted the risk of violent conflicts through a further distortion of the national economy. Moreover, the transition to democratic rule in 1999 decisively increased the opportunities for violent struggle, in a twofold manner: firstly, through the easing of political repression and, secondly, through the spread of armed youth groups, which have been fostered by corrupt politicians. These incidents imply that violence in the Niger Delta is increasingly driven by the autonomous dynamics of an economy of violence: the involvement of security forces, politicians and (international) businessmen in illegal oil theft helps to explain the perpetuation of the violent conflicts at a low level of intensity.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Economics, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa

2345. Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Daniel Xie
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A new technique for estimating countries' de facto exchange rate regimes synthesizes two approaches. One approach estimates the implicit de facto basket weights in an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of the local currency value rate against major currency values. Here the hypothesis is a basket peg with little flexibility. The second estimates the de facto degree of exchange rate flexibility by observing how exchange market pressure is allowed to show up. Here the hypothesis is an anchor to the dollar or some other single major currency, but with a possibly substantial degree of exchange rate flexibility around that anchor. It is important to have available a technique that can cover both dimensions: inferring anchor weights and the flexibility parameter. We test the synthesis technique on a variety of fixers, floaters, and basket peggers. We find that real world data demand a statistical technique that allows parameters and regimes to shift frequently. Accordingly we estimate de facto exchange rate regimes: endogenous estimation of parameter breakpoints, following Bai and Perron (1998).
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

2346. U.S. BITs and financial stability

Author:
Kevin P. Gallagher
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Almost immediately after taking office, the Obama administration charged the U.S. Department of State's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy with reviewing the U.S. Model bilateral investment treaty (BIT). The group established a sub-committee of business groups, labor and environmental organizations, and a handful of academic experts and tasked it to make official recommendations for reforming U.S. investment treaties. When completed, the Obama Administration hopes to proceed with official negotiations with China, India, Vietnam, and possibly Brazil.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, Brazil, and Vietnam

2347. President Obama's International Tax Proposals Could Go Further

Author:
Reuven S. Avi-Yonah
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The Obama Administration's 2011 budget proposals include revenues of $122 billion over ten years from “international tax reform.” This set of proposals is similar to but narrower than the ones advanced by the Administration in May 2009, which would have raised $210 billion.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

2348. International investment law and media disputes: a complement to WTO law

Author:
Luke Eric Peterson
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The recent high-stakes dispute between Google and China over censorship and cyber-security has spawned renewed discussion of the international trade law protections that internet and media companies may enjoy. Less recognized, however, is a perhaps more powerful legal tool in the arsenal of internet and media companies engaging in cross-border investment s, namely international investment law.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Mass Media, and Law
Political Geography:
China

2349. Abkhazia: Deepening Dependence

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The historically coveted region of Abkhazia has become even more dependent on Moscow since Russia's controversial recognition a year and a half ago. Russia is financing half the region's budget, and against vigorous Georgian protests, it is spending $465 million to refurbish existing and build new military installations in the picturesque Black Sea coastal area. Virtually the entire population holds Russian citizenship, and almost all trade is with the northern neighbour. It will take constructive, creative thinking on the part of Georgian, Russian, Abkhazian and international actors alike to restore even a modicum of confidence between the parties to the conflict. Given Abkhazia's unrealistic insistence that Georgia recognise it as independent and the equally unrealistic prospect that Sukhumi will acknowledge Georgia's sovereignty, the two parties should focus on creating economic and humanitarian links without status preconditions in order to benefit both, build stability and give momentum to a long reconciliation process.
Topic:
Economics and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia

2350. The impact of the global financial crisis on women in Southeast Asia

Author:
Yada Praparpun
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report analyses the impact of the current global economic crisis on women in five Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. This research aims to provide up-to-date information and recommendations to policy makers in both the public and private sectors on how the economic crisis is affecting women workers in the aforementioned countries. The results of the research will be shared with civil society organizations, government agencies, regional and global institutions, academic institutions, trade unions, donor agencies, NGOs, and the media.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia