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2061. Turkish Interests and Involvement in the Western Balkans: A Score-Card

Author:
Žarko Petrović and Dušan Reljic
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The vigor which has characterized the Turkish approach to the Western Balkans since the end of the Cold War has transformed the country into an important regional actor from its previous position as a distant neighbor that showed little interest. Although Turkey and the Western Balkan countries have in the meanwhile achieved the most intensive relationship since the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has not yet displayed the economic capacity and political weight that could make it compete with the magnetism of the European Union for Western Balkan countries. Turkish cultural influence, although significantly widened in the last few years, particularly through investments in educational institutions, is mostly limited to the Muslim population in the region. While potential EU membership remains the most important driver for the political elites in the region, the stalled EU membership prospects of both Turkey and the countries of the region might change this in the future.
Topic:
Cold War and Economics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Balkans

2062. The art of declining politely: Obama's prudent presidency and the waning of American power

Author:
Adam Quinn
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Predictions of 'American decline' have come and gone before, apparently in cycles, leading some to regard it as a cultural trope stemming from domestic insecurities rather than a serious prospect. There is reason to believe, however, that this time is different. Fundamental erosion of the United States' decades-long primacy may finally be at hand, and wise analysis should resist the temptations of contrarianism or denial. Critics of 'declinism' have offered important caveats with which we should qualify any overly simplistic or deterministic portrait of America's trajectory from hegemon to lesser status. This article gives such qualifications due weight while nevertheless seeking to steer our gaze back towards the core truth at the heart of the declinist thesis. That is: unless something very significant changes to jolt the course of events onto a different track, the relative power of the United States—measured in terms of its advantage over others in economic and military capacity—will be shrinking significantly over the decades to come. Happily, the nation's current president seems to have a disposition well fitted to leading the nation into the opening stages of an era of relative decline. President Obama has made headlines in recent months for his boldness in orchestrating the killing of Osama bin Laden. A fuller survey of his foreign policy, however, reveals that its most signal feature has been prudence and circumspection regarding American power and its exercise. Major divergence between the ends pursued and the capacities available for their pursuit is one of the cardinal sins giving rise to strategic failure. It is thus fortunate for the United States that it should have a president who, even if he may not be inclined to cast it in such words himself, seems disposed not to 'rage against the dying of the light' of American primacy, but to practice the admirable art of declining politely.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

2063. Asia's century and the problem of Japan's centrality

Author:
Brendan Taylor
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Japan has long been regarded as a central component of America's grand strategyin Asia. Scholars and practitioners assume this situation will persist in the face of China's rise and, indeed, that a more 'normal' Japan can and should take on anincreasingly central role in US-led strategies to manage this power transition. Thisarticle challenges those assumptions by arguing that they are, paradoxically, beingmade at a time when Japan's economic and strategic weight in Asian security isgradually diminishing. The article documents Japan's economic and demographicchallenges and their strategic ramifications. It considers what role Japan mightplay in an evolving security order where China and the US emerge as Asia's twodominant powers by a significant margin. Whether the US-China relationshipis ultimately one of strategic competition or accommodation, it is argued thatJapan's continued centrality in America's Asian grand strategy threatens to becomeincreasingly problematic. It is posited that the best hope for circumventing thisproblem and its potentially destabilizing consequences lies in the nurturing of anascent 'shadow condominium' comprising the US and China, with Japan as a'marginal weight' on the US side of that arrangement.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and America

2064. Indian foreign policy and contemporary security challenges

Author:
Rohan Mukherjee and David M Malone
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
India is fast emerging as an important player in regional and international arenas. However, it continues to be beset by a number of security challenges, both internally and externally. On the assumption that India's foreign policy has evolved in step with its domestic politics, this article briefly surveys the evolution of Indian domestic politics and foreign policy before discussing some of the domestic and international (including regional) security challenges India faces today. The article concludes that although economic diplomacy does at present serve India well in projecting power internationally, achieving great power status in the future will rest on the resolution of key political and security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
India

2065. Dr Fox and the Philosopher's Stone: the alchemy of national defence in the age of austerity

Author:
Paul Cornish and Andrew M. Dorman
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The history of British defence reviews has been one of repeated disappointment: a cycle in which policy failure is followed by a period of inertia, giving way to an attempt at a new policy framework which is then misimplemented by the defence leadership. Each failed defence review therefore sows the seeds of its successor. With this in mind, in 2010 the new coalition government embarked upon an altogether more ambitious exercise: a strategy review comprising a National Security Strategy and a Strategic Defence and Security Review. This article suggests, nevertheless, not only that the 2010 strategy review looks likely to follow past performance, but also that it is coming unstuck at an unprecedented rate. This is a pity since the 2010 review had much to commend it, not least the adoption of a risk-based approach to security and defence policy-making. What is the explanation for this outcome? Is it that the British have, as some have suggested, lost the ability to 'do strategy', if ever they had it? The authors offer a more nuanced understanding of the policy process and argue that the coalition government in fact has a very clear and deliberate strategy—that of national economic recovery. Yet the coalition government cannot allow national defence and security to fail. The authors conclude with an assessment of the options open to the defence leadership as they seek to address the failing 2010 strategy review and suggest a variety of indicators which will demonstrate the intent and seriousness of the political, official and military leadership of the Ministry of Defence.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Britain

2066. Is China a responsible stakeholder?

Author:
Amitai Etzioni
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
China has recently been criticized for not being a 'responsible stakeholder', not being a good citizen of the international community and not contributing to global public goods. China 'is refusing to be a responsible stakeholder in the international political system, cultivating, as it has been, good relations with some of the world's most odious regimes', according to Robert Kaplan, writing in The Atlantic. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal asserts that 'China won't be a responsible stakeholder' and acts as a 'free-rider'. Observing China's growing assertiveness in foreign policy and purported attempts to undermine the current liberal world order, Elizabeth Economy writes in Foreign Affairs that 'China is transforming the world as it transforms itself. Never mind notions of a responsible stakeholder; China has become a revolutionary power.'
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China

2067. International order after the financial crisis

Author:
Harold James
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The geography of power is at present being dramatically transformed, notably by the rapid economic rise of China. What makes international order legitimate in a world in which political and economic foundations are rapidly shifting? This article examines analogies and lessons from a previous transition, from a world order centered on Britain, to a US dominated global order. The article looks at two interpretations of the transition, one by E. H. Carr, the other by Charles Kindleberger. China is beginning to behave in the way expected of a Kindleberger hegemon, but also sees the possibilities of asserting power in a world that in the aftermath of 2008 looks much more like the chaotic and crisis-ridden interwar period as interpreted by E. H. Carr. The challenge for the management of the new international order will lie in the ability of China to embrace the universalistic vision that underpinned previous eras of stability, in the nineteenth century and in the late twentieth century.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, and China

2068. Integration in the Global South: What Role for IBSA Dialogue Forum?

Author:
Mehmet Özkan
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Recently we have seen that the middle-sized states are coming together in several forums. The WTO meetings and India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) dialogue forum are among those to be cited. Such groupings are mainly economy oriented and whether they will have political output needs to be seen, however, in the future if globalization goes in a similar way as today, we might see more groupings. Those groupings should be seen as reactions to unjust and exclusive globalization. The IBSA Dialogue Forum members have enhanced their relations economically by signing bilateral trade agreements and acting together on economic issues in global forums. If they can hold together, they are creating a market more than ¼ of global population and, if successful, it has a chance to be the engine of growth in the South. Moreover if they can create the biggest market in the South, they would also be influential in the being of the voice of the South. In that sense, this paper addresses the possible ways to develop relations between the IBSA members and economic development in the South, furthermore, implication of the IBSA on global governance and development can be as critical as its contribution to economic development, since the global governing bodies have legitimacy crisis.
Topic:
Cold War and Economics
Political Geography:
India, South Africa, and Brazil

2069. Ready or Not: Pakistan's resilience to disasters one year on from the floods

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The floods that hit Pakistan in 2010 were the worst in the country's history. The humanitarian response achieved remarkable successes in minimising the immediate loss of life and providing relief to millions of people. However, it could have been better: more than 800,000 families remain without permanent shelter and more than a million people remain in need of food assistance. These unmet needs must be addressed as a matter of urgency.
Topic:
Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

2070. Documents and Source Material: Israel

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
C. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Macro Center for Political Economics, "All of the Above: Identity Paradoxes of Young People in Israel (the 3rd Youth Study): Changes in National, Societal, and Personal Attitudes," Herzliya, Israel, 31 March 2011 (excerpts)
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Israel