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1901. Inward FDI in Russia and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Alexey Kuznetsov
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Russia is potentially an attractive host economy for foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly due to its large market and rich natural resources. The Government has, however, been unable to make the radical changes needed in the country's investment climate for attracting FDI on a scale and to a range of industries in line with Russia's potential. Nevertheless, oil and gas, power generation and motor vehicles industries, as well as wholesale and retail trade and several other industries have recently received new and significant FDI. After a steep decline in 2008, inward FDI (IFDI) stock recovered, to reach US$ 491 billion in 2010, although there was a moderate fall again in 2011. IFDI flows fell considerably in 2009 but rose to US$43 billion in 2010 and US$ 53 billion in 2011. In 2008–2010, the largest number of significant greenfield projects were in power generation. Large mergers and acquisitions (M) took place in various industries, but the size of the largest deals was usually smaller in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. High levels of corruption, lack of competition and a distorted dialogue between the state, business and society are main barriers to the rapid growth of inward FDI. The recent global financial and economic crisis has revealed weaknesses of the Russian model of development in the 2000s. It is doubtful whether the efforts currently under way by the Russian Government to “repair” the existing model without political and economic reforms will lead toward a major improvement of the investment climate as only slight changes are being made (e. g., the improvement of the Russian migration regime and the development of special economic zones). However, the federal elections in 2012 could lead to more efficient steps, although it is difficult to predict the scale of probable positive shifts in the investment climate.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia

1902. Inward FDI in Uruguay and its policy context

Author:
Graciana del Castillo and Daniel García
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
An analysis of trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Uruguay is difficult due to data problems. Nevertheless, balance-of-payments data reveal that inward FDI (IFDI) increased sharply in the second half of the decade 2002-2011 under analysis. IFDI flows relative to GDP rose annually on average to close to 6% in 2005-2011. This compares favorably with annual average flows of only 1% in the decade before the banking crisis and the sharp devaluation of the Uruguayan peso in 2002. At the time, investment in natural resources, including in farmland and real estate in Punta del Este, became very attractive. IFDI flows peaked at 7.5% of GDP in 2006, with the investment in the construction of the first cellulose plant in the country by a multinational enterprise (MNE) from Finland. The rapid increase in IFDI in the second half of the past decade took place amid high rates of economic growth (averaging about 6% a year on average), in combination with an adequate policy and regulatory framework and fiscal incentives to foreign investors. So far, Uruguay remains primarily a host country for FDI, with outward FDI (OFDI) that has been and continues to be insignificant.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

1903. Outward FDI from Hungary and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Erzsébet Czakó and Magdolna Sass
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The period of significant growth of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Hungary was interrupted in recent years. The global financial and economic crisis has brought considerable changes with effects on Hungary's OFDI. The OFDI stock declined in 2010 after its impressive growth throughout 2000–2009, and the decline in OFDI flows that began in 2007 continued through 2010. However, recent data indicate a rise in both OFDI stock and flows in 2011. Hungary's OFDI stock of US$ 21 billion in 2010 continued to be highly concentrated in terms of the investing companies. These large multinational enterprises (MNEs) face the challenge of an international environment that is increasingly critical to their operations. Government policy and the institutional framework have changed to a great extent since 2010. In particular, the extent of state ownership in the most important outward investors has grown. In the policy field, the declared priorities focus on OFDI in new geographic areas and the promotion of the internationalization of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The main question for the future of Hungarian OFDI remains that of how its sustainability can be assured, especially in terms of broadening the company base of OFDI.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

1904. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea

Author:
Christopher Freise
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia

1905. Sovereign Debtors in Distress: Are Our Institutions Up to the Challenge?

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Global economic developments over the past two years have dashed hopes that the risks of sovereign debt crises have been tamed. The turmoil in Europe has, of course, been the most acute of these developments, but growing national fiscal imbalances, anemic prospects for growth and the expanding reach of private financial markets to newly emerging economies are potent, if less immediately threatening, signs of the risks ahead. After lying dormant for almost a decade, pressing questions about whether global institutions are capable of containing the costs of debt crises are again being raised.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

1906. Into Africa: Emerging opportunities for business

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Ten years ago, The Economist ran a cover with the title “Africa: The Hopeless Continent”. Today, this has been replaced by “Africa Rising” (last December's issue)—a reflection of the changes that the continent has experienced over a decade. What has engineered Africa's rise through difficult times? It is predominantly the emergence of the BRICs, particularly India and China, that has helped to put Africa back on the map of development and investor interests.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and India

1907. Azerbaijan in Transition

Author:
Jens Hölscher
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Azerbaijan has been the fastest growing economy of the world and it increasingly attracts the interest of foreign investors. This paper analyses the Azerbaijani economy in transition from communism to capitalism over the past decade with a focus on investment climate. Facts and figures of the apparent economic miracle are presented and a number of political obstacles considered. Azerbaijan's transition towards a market economy has not gone very far and it is mainly slowed down by low levels of trust and high levels of corruption. There are also human rights issues and freedom or press is limited. Unless and until Azerbaijan deals with these problems, shadows will continue to loom over its economic miracle.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Azerbaijan

1908. A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany's Curse of Excess Savings

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For most of the time since the early 1950s, national savings in Germany have tended to exceed national investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Most of these excess savings have been intermediated by the domestic banking system, which has had difficulties investing these German surpluses abroad given that it is prohibited by law from taking any exchange rate risk. This tended to keep the surplus within limits most of the time (less than 1- 2% of GDP). With the advent of the euro, however, German surpluses could become much larger and seem now to have become structurally engrained at 6% of GDP, or over one-quarter of savings. Since the start of the euro crisis, German private savers have repatriated their investments – effectively unloading their exposure onto the public sector as German banks have deposited hundreds of billions of euro at the Bundesbank. These funds are being lent by the ECB to banks in the euro area periphery (at 75 bps) – ensuring effectively a negative real return.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1909. Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Italy

1910. Unholy compromise in the eurozone and how to right it

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Two years after the first Greek rescue in May 2010, crisis management in the eurozone has still failed to restore confidence. A vivid picture of the situation can be found in Figure 1: the constellation of spreads on ten-year sovereign debts over the Bund in the eurozone is wider than it was before monetary union, as though financial markets had already discounted its breakdown. Temporary respites, notably in the early part of 2012, have not interrupted the trend of increasing divergence that risks undermining the credibility of adjustment efforts under way.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe