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1702. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU
- Author:
- Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
1703. Prospects for youth-led movements for political change in Pakistan
- Author:
- Michael Kugelman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- This policy brief assesses the potential for two types of youth-led political change movements in Pakistan. One is an Arab Spring-like campaign, fuelled by demands for better governance and new leadership. The other is a religious movement akin to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which seeks to transform Pakistan into a rigid Islamic state. The brief discusses the presence in Pakistan of several factors that suggest the possibility of the emergence of an Arab Spring-type movement. These include economic problems; corruption; a young, rapidly urbanising and disillusioned population; youth-galvanising incidents; and, in Imran Khan, a charismatic political figure capable of channelling mass sentiment into political change.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, Youth Culture, Political Activism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
1704. The structure and dynamics of cut flower export markets from Kenya and Ethiopia
- Author:
- Brian D. Perry
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This report is part of a broad study of trade preferences and market conditions between various developing countries and Norway, conducted under the auspices of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Norway's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established in 1971. From 2002 Norway has provided duty and quota free market access (DQF-MA) for all goods from all the 50 least developed countries (LDCs3). In 2005 the results of a review of Norway's GSP were published (Melchior, 20054), which showed that agricultural products from developing countries other than LDCs were still subject to substantial tariffs, and this contrasted dramatically with advantages given to European trading partners. As a result, from 1 January 2008 changes were made to Norway's GSP5. An important adjustment was that 14 low income countries that were not part of the LDC group were included in the provision for duty and quota-free market access (DQFMA). Consequently, 64 low income countries now benefit from DQFMA to Norway for all their goods.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Norway, and Ethiopia
1705. Women's economic opportunity 2012: A global index and ranking from the Economist Intelligence Unit
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Women are a key driver of economic growth. In the second half of the 20th century, the entry of women into the workforce helped to propel most of the world's developed economies. In the United States, an expanded pool of workers—from the emergence of the baby-boom generation and the rising number of women in the workplace—added nearly 2 percentage points a year to economic growth. Since 1995, the narrowing gap between male and female employment has accounted for a quarter of Europe's annual GDP growth. Today, women in the developing world are poised to have a similar impact—if they can be properly educated, equipped and empowered.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
1706. This Time Is Not Different: Blaming Short Sellers
- Author:
- Pierre Siklos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Reinhart and Rogoff's timely volume, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009), makes it abundantly clear that financial crises are protracted affairs. The title of this policy brief highlights the irony of lessons never learned. History, in the form of recurring economic crises, does indeed repeat itself. Nevertheless, a closer look at Reinhart and Rogoff's often-publicized conclusion reveals that there are remarkable variations across individual countries' experiences, as well as across time. For example, the actual severity of crises can be exacerbated when a banking crisis is accompanied by a currency crisis. Most importantly, the severity of the recession that typically accompanies all types of financial crises is often determined by the response of policy makers.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Governance
1707. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict
- Author:
- John Bowlus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
1708. Gold Exchange Standard in its 40th Year of Abolition: Jacques Rueff Re-Visited
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- While the post-war international monetary system that evolved under the leadership of the U.S. dollar has secured credit abundance – and hence contributed to global growth – the system has also revealed its deficiencies already by 1950's. In contrary to the 1930's when the world's main problem was chronic deflation; two decades later, the problem has become chronic inflation and fiscal deficits. Since then many blamed the indiscipline of the Keynesian school of thought and the inability of the U.S. dollar to become a global “public good” by being a stable international currency. In this Policy Brief, I overview the many aspects of the post-war international monetary system through the lens of the post-war French economist, Jacques Rueff, and question the applicability of his longproposed gold standard in today's highly integrated and speculative money markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
1709. Reconsidering the Right to Own Property
- Author:
- Rhoda E. Howard-Hassmann
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
- Abstract:
- This article considers whether a there should be a separate international Covenant to elaborate on the human right to own property, which has languished since its inclusion in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Privatization, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1710. Cooperating with China in Africa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- OECD donors, international organisations and non-governmental organisations are increasingly cooperating with China in Africa. This policy brief offers recommendations for policy-makers on how to lay the groundwork for such cooperation. It also stresses that the involvement of African partners is critical in fully realizing the benefits such cooperation can provide for sustainable development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and China