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1672. Spain's fiscal targets should be eased
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The Spanish government has announced that the fiscal deficit for 2011 may be even worse than expected, perhaps even exceeding 8% of GDP. In response to this overshoot, the authorities have so far announced additional spending cuts and tax rises amounting to €15bn. But fiscal tightening will have to be even more severe if the government wants to meet its 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Spain
1673. The Fed moves to provide more transparency
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
1674. Consumption boosts China's resilience but risks of a property bust still loom
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- With the outlook for exports subdued and investment weak, we expect industrial output growth to slow further in 2012H1. But consumption is taking up the slack and fiscal policy is set to be supportive. As a result, we only expect a relatively modest slowing in growth in 2012 to 8.4% from 9.2% in 2011. But with house prices still falling in December, we remain concerned about the risk of a sharp slowing in the property market leading to strains on local government finances and a hard landing for growth, particularly with the external environment weak. However, central government finances are strong and fiscal transfers could provide a significant cushion in the event of a property bust.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
1675. Pacific Island Nations: How Viable Are Their Economies?
- Author:
- Francis X. Hezel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Pacific is receiving a fair share of attention today from many quarters. Even as the parade of economic consultants continues, others are coming to explore concerns that have more recently claimed the attention of western nations. These concerns cover a broad range, including food security, global warming, elimination of illegal drug traffic in the region, prevention of AIDS or even drug-resistant tuberculosis, protection from spouse abuse, and public-school improvement. These are legitimate interests, but none of them addresses the central concern that vexes each of the island nations of Micronesia, and perhaps the islands elsewhere in the Pacific: How will the country grow its economy to ensure its survival in the future?
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia, and Island
1676. Worldwide Cost of Living 2012
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- For the first time in at least two decades of reporting the worldwide cost of living survey Zurich sits atop the ranking as the world's most expensive city. An index swing of 34 percentage points pushed the Swiss city up 4 places compared to last year to overtake Tokyo which remains in 2nd place. Geneva, the other Swiss city surveyed saw a 30 percentage point rise in the cost of living to move up six places into joint third alongside Osaka.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, Economics, Markets, and Urbanization
- Political Geography:
- Tokyo
1677. Emerging Infectious Disease Surveillance in Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Naval Area Medical Research Unit 2
- Author:
- Sophal Ear
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose international security threats because of their potential to inflict harm upon humans, crops, livestock, health infrastructure, and economies. The following questions stimulated the research described in this paper: What infrastructure is necessary to enable EID surveillance in developing countries? What cultural, political, and economic challenges stand in the way of setting up such infrastructure? And are there general principles that might guide engagement with developing countries and support EID surveillance infrastructure? Using the U.S. Naval Area Medical Research Unit No. 2 as common denominator, this paper compares barriers to EID surveillance in Cambodia and Indonesia and presents key factors—uncovered through extensive interviews—that constrain disease surveillance systems. In Cambodia, the key factors that emerged were low salaries, poor staff and human resources management, the effect of patronage networks, a culture of donor dependence, contrasting priorities between the government and international donors, and a lack of compensation for animal culling. The Cambodian military has also played a part. The government ceased a merit-based salary supplement scheme for civil servants after the military is alleged to have demanded similar pay incentives that donors had no interest in funding. In Indonesia the key issues emerging as barriers to effective surveillance include poor host-donor relationships, including differing host-donor priorities and a misunderstanding of NAMRU-2 by Indonesian authorities; low salaries; a decline in the qualifications of personnel in the Ministry of Health; poor compensation for animal culling; and difficulties incentivizing local-level reporting in an era of decentralization. As the interviews with in-country practitioners revealed, low levels of development in general are the main impediments to building EID surveillance infrastructure and are perhaps beyond the scope of health and scientific agencies at this point. Nevertheless, promoting greater understanding of these issues is a critical first step in mitigating negative outcomes.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Health, Human Welfare, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
1678. Pharmaceutical Price Regulation: Macro-Level Evidence from China between 1997 and 2008
- Author:
- Qiong Zhang, Binzhen Wu, and Xue Qiao
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This paper uses macro-level data between 1997 and 2008 to evaluate the effects of China's pharmaceutical price regulations. We find that these regulations had short-run effects on medicine price indexes, reducing them by less than 0.5 percentage points. The effects could have been slightly reinforced when these regulations were imposed on more medicines. However, these regulations failed to reduce household health expenditures and the average profitability of the pharmaceutical industry, and firms on the break-even edge were worse off. Finally, although these regulations have no significant effects on the price of substitutes or complements for medicines, they increased expensive medicine imports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
1679. When do ruling elites support productive sectors? Explaining policy initiatives in the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda
- Author:
- Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explains the differences in ruling elite support for the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda. Although production in Uganda has not generally been promoted in any sustained way, ruling elites have to varying degrees supported the dairy and fisheries sectors. The paper shows that the ruling elite initially supported the fishing industry because of industry pressure. They have failed to enforce fisheries management because there are big political costs associated with such enforcement. The dairy sector in the southwestern milk region was initially supported because the ruling elite wanted to build a coalition of support in this region. Coming from the region himself, the president had a keen interest in dairy cattle. The sector was subsequently regulated because the biggest processor put pressure on the ruling elite to do so. Even when the ruling coalition is fragmented, promoting production is possible if there is strong industry pressure and when the initiatives to promote the sector are also seen to help build or maintain the ruling coalition.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Poverty, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
1680. The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests
- Author:
- Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, and Europe