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1522. The Afghan War: Creating the Economic Conditions and Civil-Military Aid Efforts Needed For Transition
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Sean T. Mann, and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In a little over two years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government as part of a process labeled “Transition.” Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. The political, governance, and economic dimensions of this Transition, however, will be as important as any developments in the fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
1523. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia
1524. World Hyperinflations
- Author:
- Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Krus
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- This chapter supplies, for the first time, a table that contains all 56 episodes of hyperinflation, including several which had previously gone unreported. The Hyperinflation Table is compiled in a systematic and uniform way. Most importantly, it meets the replicability test. It utilizes clean and consistent inflation metrics, indicates the start and end dates of each episode, identifies the month of peak hyperinflation, and signifies the currency that was in circulation, as well as the method used to calculate inflation rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
1525. Economic Effects of Reductions in Defense Outlays
- Author:
- Benjamin Zycher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- This study examines the prospective economic effects of a reduction below the current baseline in defense outlays of $100 billion per year over 10 years.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
1526. Using Entrepreneurship to Promote Stability in Fragile Regions
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin and Steven Koltai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Described as the productive combination of innovation, initiative, risk and capital, entrepreneurship could provide a crucial underpinning for stability in conflict-affected regions via job creation and improved human security. State building initiatives regularly tout entrepreneurship as an integral part of broader economic development, political or security strategies but seldom explain the thinking behind purported causal linkages. The Six + Six model offers a targeted and comprehensive strategy to promote entrepreneurship in conflict-affected states. It provides a dynamic alternative to aid-based strategies. Given the growing success of impact investing, it is imperative for bilateral and multilateral development agencies to help facilitate such investment by co-investing and seeding further impact investing. Entrepreneurs in fragile regions urgently need support in the form of enabling environments and innovative approaches that reward their creativity and risk-taking. To bolster entrepreneurs' chances for success, policymakers should consider: redirecting foreign assistance; re-focusing private sector development interventions; re-conceptualizing state building; and re-valuing individuals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Economics, Markets, Poverty, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
1527. Security Sector Transformation in the Arab Awakening
- Author:
- Donald J. Planty
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Arab Awakening opened the door to democratic political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Security sector reform (SSR) is an integral component of the nascent democratic process in the region. While SSR is a long-term process, it should be a key part of institution building in the new democracies. Democracy requires security institutions that are open, professional, and responsive to public needs. The transitions to democracy are varied in nature and scope. SSR will differ by country and must be tailored to the political realities and specific circumstances of each state. The international community can foster successful SSR processes by calibrating its assistance according to the reform efforts in each country. A general or “one-size-fits-all” approach to SSR will not be successful. A sense of political powerlessness, an unresponsive bureaucracy, a general lack of opportunity, economic stagnation (including high unemployment), and repressive security forces all contributed to the Arab Awakening. As a result of the upheaval, democratic forces in several of the MENA countries are pushing for transparency and accountability in the security services. SSR must be undertaken in a holistic manner, couched within the framework of overall democratic reform and linked to other broad policies such as justice sector reform, evolution of the political process, and economic development. SSR will only be achieved if it is integrated and pursued in unison with these larger processes of democratic change. The international community, especially the United States and the European Union, need to foster democratic developments and, in particular, to support and coordinate SSR.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Economics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
1528. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services
- Author:
- Henk L.M. Kox
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1529. Banking Union: A federal model for the European Union with prompt corrective action
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Carmine Di Noia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The European Commission has published its proposals for the transfer of supervisory responsibilities to the European Central Bank (ECB), under Article 127(6) of the TFEU, providing a comprehensive and courageous 'first step' towards a European banking Union, the other steps being European deposit insurance and resolution procedures. However, on a number of issues the Commission's chosen path raises questions that should be brought out in the open and fully recognized before final deliberation by the Council.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1530. The EU's Promotion of External Democracy: In search of the plot
- Author:
- Anne Wetzel and Jan Orbie
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- While the EU has recently upgraded its external democracy promotion policies through a set of initiatives such as the “Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean”, the proposal for a “European Endowment of Democracy”, and the “Strategic Framework and Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy”, there is one challenge that it has not yet addressed: what exactly does it aim to support?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- Europe