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1481. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Syria

1482. A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

1483. Governing for the Future: What Governments can do

Author:
Peter Ho
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The paper looks at how governments can be better prepared to deal with increasing complexity. Complexity produces strategic shocks and generates wicked problems. But complexity is different from merely complicated. A more complex operating environment increasingly challenges the paradigm of governments. A whole-of-government approach is a vital response to managing an increasingly complex world. There are also various tools that can be deployed to help governments better deal with complexity, and reduce the frequency and amplitude of strategic shocks.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics, and Governance

1484. Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment

Author:
Leonardo Maugeri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Oil Production Growth is Global. Global oil output capacity is likely to grow from 93 million barrels per day today to 110 million barrels per day by 2020—the largest increase in a single decade since the 1980s. The surge in oil production capacity will occur almost everywhere, with the largest increases in Iraq, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela. United States Will Experience Unprecedented Output. Technological advances will increase the production of “unconventional” oil in the United States, which is in the midst of a shale boom. The Bakken/Three Forks formation in North Dakota alone has as much untapped shale/tight oil as a Persian Gulf country. Oil Prices May Collapse. If oil prices remain at or above $70 per barrel, investments will sustain the 20 percent increase in oil production capacity by 2020. However, world demand is sluggish due to the lagging economy and focus on energy efficiency. If these trends continue, we could see a significant dip—or even a temporary collapse—of oil prices. Shifting Market Has Geopolitical Consequences. While the Western Hemisphere could become oil self-sufficient by 2020, Iraq's oil output will also substantially increase as it stabilizes. China may escalate its competitive and political influence in the Persian Gulf and other oil-producing hotspots, including Canada, Venezuela, and possibly the United States. Oil Boom Must Trigger Environmental Action. Enforcement of environmental regulation and major investment in emission-reducing technologies must accompany the development of unconventional oil. Without this balance between industry and environmental interests, new oil production projects will be stymied or delayed.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

1485. How Can the World Bank Group Improve Its Private Sector Projects in African Fragile States?

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Benjamin Leo, and Ross Thuotte
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In recent years, the World Bank Group has made increasingly strong and explicit commitments to fragile and conflict-affected states, putting them at the top of the development policy agenda. These commitments are promising, but give rise to significant operational challenges for the various arms of the World Bank Group, including the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The bank also faces steady pressure from shareholders to scale up involvement in fragile states while also improving absorptive capacity and project effectiveness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa

1486. A Note on the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma.org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, America, and Latin America

1487. The concept of "rising powers"

Author:
Pinar Tank
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The end of the cold war and the bipolar world order heralded an era of transition for global governance. Twenty years on there is still no consensus on the status of the distribution and exercise of power in today's multipolar world. What is clear, however, is the rise of new powers seeking a global political role comparable with their increased economic clout. Often referred to as the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – to which second-tier powers such as Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico can be added, these states are called “rising powers” or “new powers” because of their rapid economic development, and expanding political and cultural influence.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, India, and Brazil

1488. Economies of violence and peacebuilding: towards policy coherence

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
International responses to conflict have highlighted the role of natural resources and other forms of wealth in helping to sustain “self-financing wars”. For over a decade there have been sporadic attempts to come to grips with the international dimensions of the economies of conflict, but concrete efforts to grapple with the problem have been sporadic and incoherent. However, in 2011 developments at the UN and OECD have laid the foundations for a more coherent approach, one that seeks to control the irregular war economies in part by excluding the results of unacceptable activities from global value chains. This is a step in the right direction. However, as this policy brief argues, the effectiveness and legitimacy of this approach relies on the conscious development of a strategy that defines clear norms as the basis for exclusion, builds the capacity in the public and private sector for managing the process of exclusion, and mitigates any unintended harms resulting from exclusion to vulnerable people in conflict-affected areas.
Topic:
Development, Economics, United Nations, War, and Natural Resources

1489. Relations between Haiti and the Dominican Republic

Author:
Blanca Antonini
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Haiti and the Dominican Republic (DR), the two adjacent countries that comprise the island of Quisqueya, have wide asymmetries and similarities. Due to poverty, nearly a third of Haitians migrate in search of work, including to the DR, and Haiti relies on foreign assistance for food security. The DR's economy exhibits considerable dynamism, but depends on cheap labour from Haiti and remittances from its own expatriates. Both countries have a common habitat and ecosystem, and their populations have a large proportion of youth.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Poverty, Bilateral Relations, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:
Caribbean, Haiti, Island, and Quisqueya

1490. CELAC: a voice for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Carlos Portales
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper analyses the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Caracas on 3 December 2011, locating it within the current context of cooperation and integration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This new body is based on an agreement that includes political cooperation functions and the task of seeking inter-governmental coordination of public policies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean