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1271. The Awakened Arab World and its New Landscape

Author:
Augustus Richard Norton
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Arab awakening augurs the return of political contestation to key Arab societies in which little more than token opposition had been tolerated. Unfolding experiments in democratisation in which Islamically-oriented parties are leading players are underway but the prospects for the consolidation of stable political systems in key countries, such as Egypt or Syria are problematic. These developments have hastened a new regional balance of power in which Saudi Arabia and its allies have sought to stem the tide of change as well as thwart the hegemonial ambitions of Iran. Persistent issues, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, remain unresolved and have a powerful grip on the conscience of the Arab world. Key external powers, especially the United States, confront not only stubborn familiar issues but also a host of new strategic, economic, diplomatic and military challenges.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

1272. Micronesians on the Move: Eastward and Upward Bound

Author:
Francis X. Hezel
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Is out-migration an admission of a Pacific Island nation's failure to fulfill its economic promise and provide the jobs that its citizens seek in a modernized society? Or is it a legitimate alternative strategy for development, through the export of surplus labor, in lieu of the more conventional methods recommended by donor nations and international financial institutions? In this paper, Francis X. Hezel, SJ, reviews the 30-year history of migration from one Pacific Island nation, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and examines the current status of its migrants with an eye to shedding light on this question.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Migration, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Australia/Pacific

1273. Priorities for the G20: The St. Petersburg Summit and Beyond

Author:
Gordon Smith, Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, Paul Jenkins, Pierre Siklos, Susan Schadler, and Thomas A. Bernes
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Tail risks for the global economy have receded vis-à-vis last year, but this has not translated into higher growth in many advanced economies. Emerging economies, which have made considerable contributions to global economic growth since the height of the international financial crisis, are slowing down. In its latest round of forecasts in July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth projections, especially those for the emerging economies, and the Washington-based institution may provide G20 leaders with a new set of downward-revised projections in St. Petersburg in September.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Washington

1274. The Sovereign Debt Forum: Expanding Our Tool Kit for Handling Sovereign Crises

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
A sovereign debt forum (SDF) would assist in facilitating more predictable, transparent and timely treatments of sovereign crises during future episodes of debt-servicing difficulties. An SDF would provide a non-statutory, neutral standing body to identify lessons from past episodes of sovereign distress, maintain information on sovereign debt and convene stakeholders to engage in confidential discussions at the outset of a sovereign crisis. The SDF proposal takes inspiration from existing precedents, such as the Paris Club and Vienna Initiative, which demonstrate that informal, rules-based representative entities have a long-standing history of organizing effective workouts for distressed countries An SDF would have a limited remit: to enable early, discreet consultation and information sharing between distressed sovereigns and their creditors to speed the process by which a sovereign is returned to solvency, stability and growth. An SDF would not supersede existing institutions and would rely on close collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An SDF would complement other proposals for automatic maturity extensions on securitized debt, arbitration and mediation processes, voluntary standstills and improved aggregation in collective action clauses (CACs). The SDF and other incremental, pragmatic proposals to improve sovereign crisis management should be put at the core of the G20 agenda on an ongoing basis.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance

1275. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

1276. Hedging Against an Unstable China: Measures to Enhance Regional and Global Resilience

Author:
Alexandre Catta, Aladdin Diakun, and Clara Yoon
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Mainstream analysis on China tends to be overly optimistic, leaving a blind spot in strategic planning. While the country's socio-economic landscape has been transformed over several decades of uninterrupted growth, it faces significant domestic and international risks and constraints. Chief among these are labour insecurity and imbalances, environmental constraints and rising climatic risks, and food insecurity, all coupled with rising popular expectations for a higher overall standard of living. Major soy producers (Argentina, Brazil and the United States) should take steps to ensure the stability of China's supply. In particular, these countries should set aside reserves to help mitigate future supply shocks and price spikes resulting from climate change. Manufacturers operating in or with China should immediately begin mapping their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities associated with crisis scenarios in the country. Where specific risks are identified, they should explore supply-chain diversification to boost resilience among major trading partners. To deter China from externalizing internal stresses, international actors should raise the political costs of nationalistic unilateralism by opening more channels for dialogue, deepening institutional integration and buttressing cooperative security norms.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:
China and Israel

1277. Impact of climate change on ASEAN food security: Downscaling analysis and response

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
This NTS Issues Brief is based on the proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on the Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN Food Security held in June 2013. The Meeting called for higher priority to be given to research on climate shifts at national and local scales, as well as greater focus on agricultural R It also highlighted the need for resource and knowledge inputs from actors throughout food value chains in the region.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, and Food

1278. Toward a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Nicolle Graugnard
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Business needs a stable and predictable investment environment, especially in times of economic uncertainty, to continue to generate employment and create wealth. Although foreign direct investment (FDI) flows rose for two years after plummeting in the wake of the global financial crisis, they fell again by 18% to US$ 1.4 trillion in 2012. According to UNCTAD, the major factors contributing to this sharp decline were economic fragility and policy uncertainty in several economies. Moreover, investment regulations classified as “restrictive” rose to 25% in 2012, compared to just 6% in 2000; “liberalizing” regulations were 75 % of the total in 2012, compared to 94% in 2000. The result of these regulations is, therefore, not surprising: businesses are holding back on new investments, with multinational enterprises reporting record cash-holdings of between US$ 4 to 5 trillion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance

1279. The futile debate over a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Axel Berger
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
One of the recurrent debates on international investment rule-making relates to the question whether it is possible to establish a multilateral framework for investment (MFI). Proponents argue that growing foreign direct investment (FDI) from emerging countries, especially China, contributes to a new consensus on global investment rules.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

1280. The need for an international investment consensus-building process

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Federico Ortino.
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Discussions on a multilateral investment framework have recently seen a revival, as the International Chamber of Commerce, the World Economic Forum and various authors have called for negotiations on this subject. A growing number of countries have been reviewing and adapting their international investment policies. This reflects dissatisfaction with the current international investment law regime, and a desire to improve it.
Topic:
Economics, International Law, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment