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41. The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Anna Malinowska, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report, prepared by a team of economists from CASE, is a continuation of the 2018 analysis The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy commissioned by JTI Polska Sp. z o.o. The purpose of the research whose results are presented in this report is to assess the economic significance, challenges and development prospects of the tobacco product manufacturing, trade and distribution sector in Poland. In the report we analyze a cross-section of the tobacco industry and its significance for the economy as a whole. We also present the significant barriers to the sector’s growth, i.e. the illicit market, costs of compliance and regulatory uncertainty, and we also model the long-term macroeconomic effects of potential changes in the industry. To the best of our knowledge, at the moment this is the most comprehensive economic study of the sector.
Topic:
Economic growth, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Tobacco
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

42. Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Topic:
European Union, Economic growth, Central Bank, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

43. Is the economy doomed to a long recession?

Author:
Andrzej Halesiak and Andrzej Rzońca
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic. A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic growth, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. The Rule of Law and its Social Reception as Determinants of Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany

Author:
Christopher Hartwell, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Maria Krell
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland. But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020). Against this background, this study examines the rule of law as a determinant of economic development in Germany and Poland from both the de jure and de facto perspectives.
Topic:
Economic growth, Rule of Law, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

45. Guidebook: Direction: An Efficient State

Author:
Gvantsa Ichkiti, Hasmik Grigoryan, Agnieszka Kulesa, Salome Kandelaki, and Stanislav Bieliei
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Polish Decentralisation Guidebook aims at presenting in a synthetic way the experience of Poland regarding the re-introduction of local government and the decentralisation process since 1989. Its main goal is to provide representatives of central and regional authorities, experts, and representatives of opinion-forming circles in Armenia and Georgia with relevant information and knowledge. The idea of the authors of this Guidebook was to facilitate mutual learning between the countries, the exchange of good practices, and lessons learned. The territorial division of Armenia was established in 1995. Now the country has two levels of administrative division – regions and communities – and the local self-government is exercised only on the level of communities. In the case of Georgia, administrative reform aimed at introducing local government started in 1997. Currently, self-government in Georgia is exercised on just one level – in municipalities (including self-governing cities and self-governing communities). Poland’s experience, in which local government units are established on all three levels of territorial division, might be useful to Armenia and Georgia, if they wish to further reform their territorial administration and pursue decentralisation. This Guidebook is comprised of four main parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of the Polish experience in five selected areas: Empowerment of local communities Financing of local government units Providing public services Absorption of external funds by local governments Crisis responses The second part is dedicated to the presentation and analysis of needs and main blocking points in decentralisation in Armenia, while the third one concentrates on Georgia. Both of them are structured around the five above-listed areas. The last but very most important section of this Guidebook provides a set of recommendations for Armenia and Georgia based on the Polish experience in introducing local government and decentralisation. The country-specific sections of this Guidebook were prepared mainly on the basis of the results of desk research. This included reviewing the existing literature, relevant state strategies and action plans as well as reports developed by local and international organisations. Key legal acts were also reviewed. In addition, interviews with representatives of local municipalities and other stakeholders were carried out in Armenia and Georgia. This Guidebook was developed as part of the project called ‘Direction: an efficient state. Polish experiences of decentralisation and modernisation, lessons learned for Armenia and Georgia’ co-funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. It is the joint work of three partner institutions: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research based in Warsaw, the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), and the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC) from Yerevan.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Governance, Economic growth, Social Policy, Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, and Armenia

46. Egypt Takes Another Step Toward China

Author:
Haisam Hassanein
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Port projects and other outreach may help President Sisi check off some of his policy goals, but giving China such a foothold could threaten a number of U.S. interests in the region. On August 5, Egypt signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese company Hutchison Ports to establish a Mediterranean container terminal in Abu Qir. President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi himself attended the signing ceremony, where he praised the company’s global reputation in the field and emphasized the importance of executing the project in accordance with the highest international standards. The project is in line with Sisi’s track record of seeking Chinese help to fulfill his ambitious domestic and foreign agenda. Hutchison is one of the world’s leading port networks, operating terminals in twenty-seven countries; in Egypt, it operates the country’s two main commercial ports, Alexandria and El Dekheila. The company’s representatives commended the opportunity for direct investment in Abu Qir and announced that they will be training more than 1,500 Egyptian engineers and other workers for jobs at the terminal. According to them, the facility will be able to handle up to 1 million containers annually once completed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economic growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

47. China's Economic Choices

Author:
David Orsmond
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea. China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue. Key factors include weakening demographics, inefficient investment, maturing export markets and declining productivity growth rather than the current trade dispute with the United States. To reverse that trend, China will need a wide-ranging policy approach that mimics the policies implemented by Japan and Korea at a similar economic stage. While there are considerable political and economic obstacles to such reforms, if it manages to continue its rapid catch-up to advanced economy incomes the potential returns for both China and the world are significant.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic growth, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and United States of America

48. The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies on Jobs in Africa: A Literature Review

Author:
Elvis Melia
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Development Institute (DIE)
Abstract:
In the past two decades, Africa has experienced a wave of mobile telephony and the early stages of internet connectivity. This paper summarises recent empirical research findings on the impact that information and communication technologies (ICTs) have had on jobs in Africa, be it in creating new jobs, destroying old jobs, or changing the quality of existing jobs in levels of productivity, incomes, or working conditions. The paper discusses various channels in which ICTs can impact jobs: In theory, they have the potential to allow for text-based services platforms that can help farmers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) become more productive or receive better access to market information; mobile money has the potential to allow the most vulnerable workers more independence and security; and the internet could allow women, in particular, to increase their incomes and independence. This literature review examines what rigorous empirical evidence actually exists to corroborate these claims. Most of the studies reviewed do indeed find positive effects of ICTs on jobs (or related variables) in Africa. On the basis of these findings, the paper reviews policy options for those interested in job creation in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper concludes by highlighting that these positive findings may exist in parallel with negative structural dynamics that are more difficult to measure. Also, the review’s findings - while positive across the board - should be seen as distinct for ICTs in the period of the 2000s and 2010s, and cannot easily be transferred to expect similarly positive effects of the much newer, Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies (such as machine learning, blockchain technologies, big data analytics, platform economies), which may produce entirely different dynamics.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Women, Internet, Economic growth, Political Science, and Literature Review
Political Geography:
Africa

49. The Influence of EU Migration Policy on Regional Free Movement in the IGAD and ECOWAS Regions

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Development Institute (DIE)
Abstract:
Establishing free movement regimes is an ambition for most African regional economic communities, and such regimes are widely understood as important for regional integration, growth and development. However, in recent years the EU’s migration policies and priorities in Africa - which are narrowly focused on stemming irregular migration to Europe – appear to be in tension with African ambitions for free movement. This paper examines how the EU’s current political engagement and programming on migration in Africa is impacting on African ambitions to establish free movement regimes. It focuses first on the continental level, and then looks in-depth at two regional economic communities: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the Horn of Africa, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The paper begins by examining how free movement has featured within both EU and African migration agendas in recent years, describing how this issue has been increasingly sidelined within the EU’s migration policy framework, while receiving growing attention by the African Union. The paper then discusses the impact of EU migration policies and programmes on progress towards regional free movement in the IGAD region. It finds that the EU is broadly supportive of efforts to establish an IGAD free movement regime, although in practice gives this little priority in comparison with other migration issues. The paper goes on to examine the EU’s engagement in the ECOWAS region, which is strongly focused on preventing irregular migration and returning irregular migrants. It asks whether there is an innate tension between this EU agenda and the ambitions of ECOWAS to fully realise its existing free movement regime, and argues that the EU’s current engagement in West Africa is actively undermining free movement. Finally, the paper discusses the differences between the EU’s approach to migration and free movement in these two regions. It offers recommendations regarding how the EU can strengthen its support for free movement in both these regions, as well as more broadly in Africa.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and European Union

50. Dismantling the Myth of the Growth–Inequality Trade-Off

Author:
Mario Negre, Jose Cuesta, Ana Revenga, and Prescott J. Morley
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Development Institute (DIE)
Abstract:
Conventional economic wisdom has long maintained that there is a necessary trade-off between pursuit of the efficiency of a system and any attempts to improve equity between participants within that system. Economist Robert Lucas demonstrated the implications of this common economic axiom when he wrote: “Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution [...] the potential for improving the lives of poor people by finding different ways of distributing current production is nothing compared to the apparently limitless potential of increasing production.” (Lucas, 2004) Indeed, many economists have suggested that too little inequality or too generous a distribution of benefits may undermine the individual’s incentive to work hard and take risks. Setting aside the harsh rhetoric used by Lucas, the practical and ethical acceptability of such a trade-off is debatable. Moreover, evidence from recent decades suggests that the trade-off itself is, in many cases, entirely avoidable. A large body of research has shown that improved competition and economic efficiency are indeed compatible with government efforts to address inequality and reduce poverty, as assessed in a World Bank report (World Bank, 2016). Contrary to another common belief about economic interventions, this research indicates that such policy interventions can be tailored to succeed in all countries and at all times; even low- and middle-income countries in times of economic crisis can successfully pursue policies to improve economic distribution, with negligible negative impacts on efficiency and, in many cases, even positive ones. Some examples of such pro-equity and pro-efficiency measures include those promoting early childhood development, universal health care, quality education, conditional cash transfers, rural infra-structure investment, and well-designed tax policy. Overall, four critical policy points stand out: 1. A trade-off is not inevitable. Policymakers do not need to give up on reducing inequality for the sake of growth. A good choice of policies can achieve both. 2. In the last two decades, research has generated substantive evidence about which policies work to foster growth and reduce inequalities. 3. Policies can redress the inequalities children are born into while fostering growth. But the wrong sets of policies can magnify inequalities early in life and thereafter. 4. All countries can, under most circumstances, implement policies that are both pro-equity and pro-efficiency.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, Economic growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus