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11. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement

Author:
Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa

12. After the Fall: Lebanon’s Path towards Monetary Stabilization

Author:
Jean Tawile
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is suffering the worst economic crisis in its history, caused by an economic model that produced a rentier economy feeding off a corruption-ridden state and preventing any economic growth and social justice. This model is not redeemable. This paper argues that stabilizing the currency is a first step to getting Lebanon’s economy back on the right track and explores possible pathways for doing so.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

13. The Biggest Problem in Post-Communist Transition: The Privatization of Large Enterprises

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is rather clear what transition policies have worked. Almost all the post-communist countries have become market economies and have achieved macroeconomic stability. Privatization was economically necessary, and its economic outcomes have been very positive. Alas, politically, these successes have often been unsustainable because of strong popular sentiments against the private ownership of big enterprises. Substantial renationalization has occurred. What went wrong? How could privatization be done better, or be defended? What should be done to defend private enterprise in the future? This paper argues that the nature of privatization is far less important than the establishment of good rule of law so that private property rights can be defended.
Topic:
Privatization, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Trade, Transition, Soviet Union, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Post-Soviet Europe

14. Why a Traditional Austerity Plan Would Exacerbate Lebanon’s Woes

Author:
Mounir Mahmalat
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Following the eruption of mass protests in autumn 2019, Lebanon’s economy slid into a deep financial and economic crisis. Given the magnitude of Lebanon’s contemporary economic woes, a bailout program with participation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appears unavoidable. However, while a bailout program could avoid formal default and cushion the immediate effects of financial impasse, the austerity measures that will come attached are unlikely to achieve their goals. This article argues that in clientelist polities with weak states such as Lebanon’s, austerity programs carry the risk of leaving unaddressed the underlying inefficiencies that led to economic decline in the first place. Instead of prioritizing budgetary measures and spending cuts in a conditional reform program, international donors should seize this novel window of opportunity to legitimize a reform plan with popular demands. Measures to increase judiciary independence and political accountability in particular bear a larger potential than austerity measures alone to change politics and finally create a sustainable economic model.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Austerity, Sustainability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

15. A Review of Pillar I & II of Zambia’s Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme 2017-2019

Author:
Florence Banda-Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Mbewe Kalikeka, Nakubyana Mungomba, Ignatius Masilokwa, and Caesar Cheelo
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The economic crisis of 2015 destabilised Zambia’s economic performance. The depreciation of the Kwacha and its pass-through effects led to inflation of as high as 22% and growth, at 2.9%, was far below the 5% target. The overall Budget deviation was 15% of Parliamentary appropriations in 2015, disrupting planned activities and attainment of set macroeconomic objectives. There were huge variations between what the consequent national Budgets committed to do and what they actually did. To fix this and nudge the country back towards high sustained economic growth, the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme (ESGP) was crafted in 2017. The five-pillar plan aimed to ensure prudent fiscal management by providing a system of accountability and a standard against which results could be measured, among other things. The aim of this paper is to review the ESGP, particularly, its performance in 2018. The paper sets out to understand how well Zambia faired in implementing the ESGP as well as to highlight the broader fiscal trends recently. It ultimately seeks to make recommendations about how Zambia can revive its path to economic stability and growth. The paper focuses tightly on the first two pillars of the ESGP, i.e. (i) restoring budget credibility; and (ii) enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and refocusing public expenditure. The remaining three pillars are slated to be reviewed in the second half of 2019.
Topic:
Budget, Finance, Economic Growth, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

16. Explaining Bank Stability Using Bank Specific Factors in Zimbabwe

Author:
Albert Muparuri
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This study examined the role played by bank specific factors in explaining bank stability in Zimbabwe. A panel data set was compiled covering 15 CAMEL type ratios from all 26 banking institutions which were operational in Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2014. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Effects (RE) model were applied to establish the statistically significant CAMEL type bank distress prognosticators in Zimbabwe. This study revealed that Capital, Asset Quality and Earnings (CAE), are the most statistically significant bank specific factors which influence distress in the Zimbabwean market. On the macroeconomic front, statistical significance was established on the ‘end-period Consumer Price Index (CPI)’ in determining bank stability in Zimbabwe. This implies that a deteriorating asset quality base in a bank with a feeble capital base and weak earnings in a market dogged by inflation instability is a classic precursor to bank distress in Zimbabwe.
Topic:
Economics, Banks, Banking, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

17. Afghanistan Stabilization Program: A Summary of Research and Key Outcome Trends

Author:
Radha Iyengar and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
To provide evidence about which programs best foster stability in fragile and conflict-affected areas we systematically review the relationship between stabilization programming and a broad range of outcomes in Afghanistan. Following a pre-analysis plan, we reviewed 89 existing studies from government, policy think tanks, and academic journals from over 15 years and statistically analyzed data from a range of sources from 2009 to 2015. While we compile a relatively comprehensive set of data, our analysis is based on a subset of stabilization programming the lack of a central repository of reliable data on program spending limited the analysis—because data were kept in disparate locations and never consolidated our quantitative analysis. Overall, we find that some stabilization programming is correlated with small, short-term improvements in support for the Afghan government, perceived access to health care, and economic activity despite the fact that these programs typically targeted more violent areas. We note that the size of this effect was small relative to the overall trends in key security, economic, and attitudinal outcomes over the same period and does not necessarily indicate a direct causal impact of these programs. This positive correlation was primarily observed for relatively low dollar programs (which in some cases were conducted over large parts of a region or country). Qualitative evidence suggests this may be because these smaller programs are easier to administer and less susceptible to corruption. These effects were not sustained beyond one year, suggesting limited scope for long-term or sustainable changes. The lessons our analysis suggest that modest programs with bounded expectations on the size and duration of impact must be included in considerations of future stabilization efforts. We also recommend that future programs collect higher quality data, coordinate their evaluation efforts among donors, plan ahead by building in reporting requirements, and make effective use of new technologies to be facilitated programming that is more adaptive to the conditions on the ground. As these best practices are incorporated, policymakers and implementers can enable better design and implementation of stabilization projects in conflict-affected areas in the future.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Security, War on Terror, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

18. Good and Bad Banking on Europe’s Periphery: Pathways to Catching Up and Falling Behind

Author:
Rachel A. Epstein and Martin Rhodes
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In this paper we seek to explain why bank performance has varied so dramatically during and after the financial crisis on Europe’s periphery, both across states and within them. Our dependent variable is bank performance defined in terms of credit provision and banks’ contribution to financial stability. Our independent variable is the particular mix at play between political/social purpose and what we call ‘market authority’ - the importance of market incentives, signals and pricing within a particular financial ‘ecosystem’. “Economic nationalism” or the politicization of local and regional banks has often imbued banks with social and political goals, serving the economy at different levels, and is one major source of political/social purpose. But the latter must be constrained by market authority. We argue that for optimal bank performance, economic nationalism or political/social purpose must be constrained by market authority, otherwise a political logic (e.g. cronyism, a lack of professionalism, and deficits in banking expertise) can easily subvert or distort credit provision and undermine financial stability.
Topic:
Nationalism, Financial Crisis, Finance, Banking, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Europe

19. The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets

Author:
Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We examine whether personal wealth interests affect politicians’ decisions about stabilizing financial markets. We use the setting of the government’s support of financial institutions under the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. We find that the personal wealth interests of politicians are positively associated with voting in favor of the EESA. We implement several analyses to show that personal wealth interests rather than unobservable beliefs in the financial sector explain our result.
Topic:
Financial Markets, Economic Stability, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

20. Kosovo Security Barometer - Fourth Edition

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The fourth edition of the KSB provides a summary of public perceptions on: security and justice institutions; risks and threats towards citizens and economic stability; and internal and external threats. Compared to the previous versions, this edition of the KSB includes respondents’ answers to a set of additional questions pertaining to data protection. The survey was carried out in the second half of October 2014, through face-to-face interviews conducted around Kosovo.The national sample from which the research was drawn featured 1,101 households, following a representative sample of the population above 18 years old in Kosovo. The ethnic breakdown of the interviewed respondents used for the purposes of this ediction of the KSB was: 87.92percent K-Albanian, 9.08 percent K-Serbian, and 3 percent others (Bosnian 1.0 percent, Turks 1.0 percent, and RAE 1.0 percent). Perceptions presented in this report are a summary of information gathered from respondents and it only demonstrates how people perceive these institutions. Hence, this report does not represent a conclusive assessment of the quality of the work of the institutions subject to this study.
Topic:
Security, Public Opinion, Privacy, Institutions, Survey, Economic Stability, and Data Collection
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans