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41. Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy: Spring 2015

Author:
Jennifer Rowland, Nada Zohdy, Brian Katulis, Michael Wahid Hanna, Faysal Itani, Muhammad Y. Idris, Joelle Thomas, Tamirace Fakhoury, Farouk El-Baz, Kheireddine Bekkai, Amira Maaty, and Sarah McKnight
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Our Spring 2015 volume captures the troubling developments of the past year in the Middle East and North Africa. In 2014, the Syrian conflict that has so beguiled the international community spilled over into Iraq, with the swift and shocking rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS is causing the ever-complex alliances in the region to shift in peculiar ways. In Iraq, US airstrikes provide cover for Iranian-backed militias fighting ISIS; while in Yemen, the United States supports a Saudi intervention against a different Iranianbacked armed group that has taken control of the Yemeni capital. Meanwhile, simmering political disputes in Libya escalated into a full-blown civil war, sparking concern in neighboring Egypt, where the old authoritarian order remains in control despite the country’s popular revolution. The Gulf countries contemplate their responses to record-low oil prices, continuing negotiations between the United States and Iran, and the threat of ISIS. And Tunisia remains one of the region’s only bright spots. In November, Tunisians voted in the country’s first free and fair presidential elections. This year’s Journal brings new analysis to many of these complex events and broader regional trends. We begin with the positive: an exclusive interview with former Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa. In this year’s feature articles: Brian Katulis zooms out to assess the Obama administration’s record in the Middle East over the past six years; Michael Wahid Hanna refutes the notion that the Iraqi and Syrian borders will need to be redrawn as a result of ISIS’ takeover; and Faysal Itani analyzes the US coalition’s strategy to defeat ISIS, arguing that it cannot succeed without empowering Sunni civilians. Muhammed Idris and Joelle Thomas turn to economics in an assessment of the United Arab Emirates’ efforts to go green. Tamirace Fakhoury points out a blind spot in the study of the Middle East and North Africa: how large diaspora communities affect political dynamics in their home countries. Farouk El-Baz takes us to Egypt, where he proposes a grand economic plan to pull the country out of poverty and set it on a path toward longterm growth. From Egypt, we move west to the oft-neglected country of Algeria, where Kheireddine Bekkai argues for more inclusive education policies on national identity. Finally, Amira Maaty comments on the region’s desperate need for robust civil societies, while Sarah McKnight calls for improvements in Jordan’s water policies.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Environment, Migration, History, Natural Resources, Social Movement, Islamic State, Economy, Political stability, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, Identities, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Middle East, Algeria, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

42. Export Commodity Prices And Long-Run Growth Of Primary Commodities-Based African Economies

Author:
Solomon Abayomi Olakojo
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
There is a link between primary commodity export prices and economic performance. Many African economies are primary commodities export biased, often in few primary commodities. Previous studies focus on the impact of commodity prices on growth in Africa with little attention paid to different primary commodities and level of diversification in primary commodities export. This study, investigates the effect of primary commodity prices on the long-run growth of 24 primary commodities-based African economies; by commodity types and level of diversification in primary commodities exports.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa

43. Moving to the Adjacent Possible: Discovering Paths for Export Diversification in Rwanda

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Jasmina Chauvin
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
How can Rwanda, which currently has one of the lowest levels of income and exports per capita in the world, grow and diversify its economy in presence of significant constraints? We analyze Rwanda's historical growth and trade performance and find that Rwanda's high transportation costs and limited productive knowledge have held back greater export development and have resulted in excessive rural density. Three basic commodities – coffee, tea, and tin – made up more than 80 percent of the country's exports through its history and still drive the bulk of export growth today. Given Rwanda’s high population density and associated land scarcity, these traditional exports cannot create enough jobs for its growing population, or sustainably drive future growth. Rwanda needs new, scalable activities in urban areas. In this report, we identify a strategy for greater diversification of exports in Rwanda that circumvents the key constraints and is separately tailored for regional and global export destinations. Our results identify more than 100 tradable products that lie at Rwanda's knowledge frontier, are not intensive in Rwanda's scarce resources, and economize on transportation costs. Our analysis produces a vision of a more diversified Rwanda, which can be used as a guide for investment promotion decisions. We illustrate an approach that can be applied to other settings in order to identify opportunities for export diversification that take seriously local constraints and external market opportunities.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Economic Complexity
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

44. Towards a Diversified Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of the Potential, Prospects and Challenges for Electricity Exports from Botswana

Author:
Margaret Sengwaketse
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The paper assesses the prospects and challenges of coal-fired power exports in Botswana. Specifically, the study analyses how supply factors, that is, resource availability; environmental concerns; infrastructure and technology as well as demand factors are likely to affect the development of thermal power exports in Botswana. The study concludes that coal resources are sufficient to support exports of thermal power and that technology on coal-fired power plants is available, reliable and mature. However, environmental concerns associated with coal-fired power generation; the high costs of construction and maintenance of power plants; regional demand factors, including the increasing competition from renewable sources of energy are major factors in the feasibility of the development of coal-fired electricity exports in Botswana.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Diversification, Exports, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

45. Competitiveness in Azerbaijan: Assessing Sectorial Economic Policies

Author:
Ziya Alili, Rashad Hasanov, Farhad Bayramov, and Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
CESD- Center for Economic and Social Development, Azerbaijan has developed new research paper titled as “Competitiveness in Azerbaijan: Assessing Sectorial Economic Policies”. This publication was developed and printed with the support of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. This research paper assesses economic diversification and cross-sector competitiveness in Azerbaijan by employing extensive qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The paper will measure the extent to which Azerbaijan’s economy is labor- and GDP-diversified or not. If it is not, we must ask what kind of policies can be developed for sectorial diversification and economic development. This paper will further analyze the government’s fiscal and monetary policies aimed at developing better, quantitatively based recommendations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Diversification, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

46. Building Resilience against Adverse Shocks: What are the determinants of vulnerability and resilience?

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Marcelo Cardona
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple way to measure livelihood diversification, and uses this measure together with income levels to classify Bolivian households by level of vulnerability. Regression analysis is then carried out to determine the factors and strategies associated with high resilience or high vulnerability. The results show that the single most important strategy for resilience is to have a working and income earning spouse in the household. This is still much too uncommon in Bolivia. A second important factor is the age of the head of household. Young families are considerably more vulnerable than more mature families, as the former have not had time to build up assets (physical, human and social capital) that can provide alternative sources of livelihood. One of the most surprising results of the study is that urban households are considerably more vulnerable to adverse shocks than rural households, whereas gender and ethnicity are irrelevant. The paper finishes with a comprehensive list of policy recommendations.
Topic:
Diversification, Resilience, Livelihoods, Vulnerability, and External Shocks
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

47. Gender, Ethnicity and Climate Change in Mexico: An analysis of vulnerability and resilience based on household surveys

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Anna Sophia Doyle, Dorte Verner, and Manfred Wiebelt
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes gender and ethnic differences in vulnerability and resilience to external shocks and stresses in Mexico. Vulnerability and resilience are measured by a combination of the level of household incomes per capita and the degree of diversification of these incomes. Thus, households which have poorly diversified incomes falling below the national poverty line are classified as highly vulnerable, whereas households which have highly diversified incomes above the poverty line are classified as highly resilient. The analysis shows that both gender and ethnicity are almost irrelevant as explanatory factors of vulnerability whereas education levels, dependency ratios and the age of the head of household are very important. Determining the true factors that affect vulnerability is important in order to devise effective policies to reduce vulnerability.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Diversification, Resilience, Livelihoods, Vulnerability, Gender, and External Shocks
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

48. Gender and Climate Change in Latin America: An analysis of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience based on household surveys

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Dorte Verner, and Manfred Wiebelt
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes gender differences in vulnerability and resilience to shocks, including climate change and climate variability, for Peru, Brazil and Mexico, which together account for more than half the population in Latin America. Vulnerability and resilience indicators are measured by a combination of the level of household incomes per capita and the degree of diversification of these incomes. Thus, households which simultaneously have incomes which are below the national poverty line and which are poorly diversified (Diversification Index below 0.5) are classified as highly vulnerable, whereas households which have highly diversified incomes above the poverty line are classified as highly resilient. The analysis shows that female headed households in all three countries tend to be less vulnerable and more resilient than male headed households, despite the fact that the former usually have lower education levels.
Topic:
Diversification, Resilience, Livelihoods, Vulnerability, and External Shocks
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and Peru

49. Problematizing the Effect of Rural-Urban Linkages on Food Security and Malnutrition in Guatemala’s Western Highlands

Author:
Ioulia Fenton
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Strong rural-urban linkages are increasingly seen as key to achieving sustainable livelihoods and food security in developing countries. However, not all linkages are positive and, although this is recognised in literature, few explore their potential unfavourable characteristics. Based on twelve weeks fieldwork in Guatemala this paper aims to contribute in four ways. Firstly, it details the extent of rural-urban linkages in the lives of ordinary Guatemalans, the reasons for their existence and the contribution they make to food security. Secondly, it highlights the existence of rural-urban criminal networks that negatively impact livelihoods and food security. Thirdly, it illustrates how poor quality linkages in government administration and service provision render them ineffective in alleviating food insecurity and malnutrition. Finally, by focusing on the case of Coca-Cola, it illustrates how extensive rural-urban networks of processed food and drink companies bring with them economic benefits, but adversely affect food security and nutrition through a number of mechanisms. The paper concludes that in order to better design policies aimed at improving livelihoods, food security and nutrition, the growth of rural-urban linkages in different spheres of private and public life should be analysed for its negative as well as positive contributions.
Topic:
Food Security, Diversification, Urban, Rural, Livelihoods, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
South America and Guatemala

50. Subnational Oil, Gas and Mineral Revenue Management

Author:
Andrew Bauer
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
This paper discusses challenges and approaches in managing resource revenues at the subnational level. Subnational resource-rich governments face distinct challenges in managing revenues from volatile, exhaustible resources. These include: unpredictable and discretionary resource revenue transfers between national and subnational governments, which can undermine development planning; resource revenue volatility which can lead to wasteful spending, poor quality investments; over the longer term, the finite nature of oil, gas and mineral revenues can lead to a long period of economic growth followed by a depression; and difficulty in scaling up public investment efficiently when experiencing a revenue windfall. To address revenue volatility, subnational governments can “smooth” expenditures by delinking revenues from expenditures. When revenues are unexpectedly high, governments can run a surplus, to be saved or used to pay down public debt. When revenues are unexpectedly low, they can draw on those savings or borrow. To prevent long-term booms and busts, governments can also save a portion of resource revenues for future generations, as well as invest in the local economy to generate future growth. Fiscal rules can underpin these policies, constraining government spending decisions and compelling government bodies to adopt a long-term perspective on public finances. Development planning can help prepare resource-rich regions for life after their oil, gas or minerals have been depleted. Planning helps prevent shortsighted reactions to temporary ebbs and flows in oil or mineral revenues, helps define the role of the resource sector in development, and lays the groundwork for a thriving post-extractive economy.
Topic:
Oil, Governance, Gas, Tax Systems, Diversification, Revenue Management, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus