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1281. The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal: Triumph of the Business Lobby

Author:
Subrata Ghoshroy
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
South Asia has come a long way since the days of SEATO and CENTO1 —the U.S.- sponsored pacts to contain China and keep India under check. Gone are the days when the Seventh Fleet flexed its muscle on the Bay of Bengal in support of a beleaguered Pakistan in its military campaign against the “mukti bahini”—the freedom fighters in erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Once the leader of the non-aligned, the Indian government has not expressed even a whimper of protest about what has been happening to Iraq, Lebanon, or Gaza. India and the United States now are “natural allies,” apparently forged primarily by mutual economic interests. But there was the China factor as well. Although left unsaid, China entered in to the calculation of both India and the United States. The Bush administration is careful not to revive the notion of the Cold War policy of containing China, but many in the Congress are not so reticent. At the same time, the Indian government is equally careful to highlight the growing normalization of relations and the growing trade ties with Beijing. But the clamor in the security community in New Delhi is all about countering China—a topic I heard repeatedly during my recent visit to the region. So its importance cannot be discounted. But the economic incentives of the deal have not earned as much scrutiny, a major oversight in the public discourse.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, Asia, and North America

1282. Waiting for Goldilocks: Getting Japan’s Foreign Policy Just Right

Author:
Richard J Samuels
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Generations of American parents have read their children a story called "Goldilocks and the Three Bears." It is the story of a young girl who wanders into the bears’ home in the woods. Goldilocks sits on chairs that are too big and too small, before find- ing one that is “just right.” She rejects bowls of their porridge as being too hot and as too cold, until she finds one that is “just right.” Like most children’s stories, Goldilocks is metaphorical. Americans use it to describe the process of finding just the right balance between alternatives that are too extreme. This metaphor captures the challenges awaiting Abe Shinzo, Japan’s new prime minister very nicely—particularly in the areas of foreign and secu- rity policy. His predecessor, Koizumi Junichiro, had already been like Goldilocks in his extended effort to find just the right policy toward North Korea. In his 2002 visit to Pyongyang he explored engagement, only to adopt toward a harder, more confrontational line. If the first was too hot and the second too cold, Abe is left with the responsibility to find a policy toward the DPRK that is “just right.” North Korea’s nuclear weapons test in October 2006 and its July 2006 missile tests certainly do not make this any easier.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

1283. Regionalizing the Iraq Conflict?

Author:
John Tirman
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In one way or another, we are headed for a new engagement with the regional players to in an effort end the Iraq war. The idea of bringing in the neighbors to help stabilize and reduce the violence in Iraq is very attractive, and could contribute to a plausible exit strat- egy for the United States. The likelihood of “regionalization” being a success, however, depends on which version. And even with the more cooperative schemes being suggested, the closer one looks, the less promise it seems to hold.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and North America

1284. Deterring Cyber War: A U.S.-Led Cybersecurity Summit

Author:
Andy Johnson and Kyle Spector
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Every day, U.S. military and civilian networks are probed thousands of times for cyber weaknesses. As a result of the mounting threat, there is a growing consensus that international action is required to reduce the threat of cyber war. The U.S. should take the lead in deterring cyber war by hosting a cybersecurity summit—a key first step to building an international cyber accord
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
United States, North America, and Global Focus

1285. Voices of Hope, Voices of Frustration

Author:
Kathrin Keil
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Can international students successfully obtain visas and pass through security checks in order to study in the United States? For most international students interested in studying in the United States, the answer is yes. In the 2005 fiscal year, nearly 256,000 student visas were issued, which marked a significant improvement from the approximately 236,000 issued in 2003 and the approximately 238,000 issued in 2004. While visa issuance for international students has not rebounded to pre-September 11 levels—approximately 320,000 student visas were issued in fiscal year 2001—it would be erroneous to assume that changes implemented to U.S. admission policies post-9/11 are the sole cause for this drop in international student enrollment in U.S. institutions of higher education. First of all, a comprehensive study of the impact of 9/11 on the U.S. visa system conducted by the Washington, DC-based Migration Policy Institute revealed that changes made to the visa system following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were mostly administrative. While these “administrative” changes may have caused visa interview and adjudication backlogs that hindered visa processing, changes to the system were not designed to make it harder for international students to obtain visas. Also, the State Department contends that the worldwide number of visa applications dropped after September 11 and that “the overall visa refusal rate has remained virtually constant since prior to September 11.” Most importantly, there are other factors to consider when evaluating why international student enrollment has declined, such as the growing competition from other countries' universities in terms of tuition costs, student recruitment activities, and academic programs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Education, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:
United States

1286. South Korea’s Soft Power Diplomacy

Author:
Sook-Jong Lee
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Seoul Policymakers have begun to use the concept of "soft power" in recent years, and they have found it to be an attractive foreign policy tool. Since the end of the Korean War, South Korea has strived to build up its "hard power"—a strong military to contain an aggressive North Korea and economic growth to pull the South out of poverty. Having achieved rapid economic development, a consolidated democracy, and reconciliation with the North, South Korea now looks out at the world from a small peninsula. For policy entrepreneurs seeking the best way to enhance their country’s international standing, Joseph Nye’s celebrated notion of soft power—defined as "the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment" (Nye 2004)—is appealing. Scholarly debates now have turned to the more difficult and practical question of how to infuse South Korean diplomacy with this notion of soft power following the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government. Adding the marketing concept of "branding" to soft power, the government established the Presidential Committee on Nation Branding in January of 2009.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

1287. A Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy Toward Chechnya

Author:
Anatol Lieven, Fiona Hill, and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behavior have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

1288. Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With luck, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy. However, neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of proliferation pressures in Iran. Iran needs to be assured that the U.S. will respect its autonomy if it ceases nuclear weapons development, while Iran's neighbors need to be reassured that Tehran will respect their interests. Arab governments are reluctant to join in a regional security dialogue in part because of Washington's double standard regarding Israel's nuclear arsenal and treatment of Palestinians. To mobilize all of the international actors opposing Iranian nuclear development, the U.S. must recognize that Iranian proliferation, Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, Israel's nuclear status, and Palestinian-Israeli relations are all linked and cannot be resolved without a more balanced U.S. stance.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Persia

1289. Karen Hughes' Indonesia Visit Underscores Bush Administration's PR Problems

Author:
Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
It is doubtful that the Bush administration will be very successful advancing America's image in the Islamic world as long as its representatives have such trouble telling the truth. A case in point took place on October 21, when U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes was talking before a group of university students in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. As she has found elsewhere in her visits in the Islamic world, there is enormous popular opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the ongoing U.S. counter-insurgency war.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Indonesia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia

1290. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement

Author:
John Feffer
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea