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81. Reflections of The World during the Covid-19 Pandemic On the Lives of Immigrants

Author:
İlhan Zeynep Karakılıç
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
As the Covid-19 epidemic intensified globally, countries began to implement quarantine measures one after the other starting from mid-March. According to the United Nations, 60 thousand decisions were made concerning travel and mobility restrictions in 220 countries. These decisions cause many difficulties that aggravated conditions under the pandemic for immigrants who earned their living by means of temporary mobility. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) made a statement at the end of March when these measures were just implemented, announcing that the Covid-19 global pandemic would be the biggest economic and social shock of the twenty-first century since the September 11 attacks and the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Topic:
Development, Migration, United Nations, Immigrants, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

82. China’s BRI: The Development-Finance Dimension

Author:
David Gordon and Haoyu Tong
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This report is the first of two synthesising the findings of a major research workshop convened in Washington DC on 26 June 2019, by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), as part of its multi-year project on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IISS commissioned ten papers that addressed development-finance and security issues in the BRI, prepared by leading scholars and policy practitioners. They were joined at the workshop by more than two dozen other experts on China’s international behaviour. This first report focuses on development-finance issues in the BRI; the second will address security issues broadly cast. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now six years old. Announced by (then) newly ensconced President Xi Jinping, it has since become the centrepiece of Xi’s ambitious drive to make China a more active global leader, and to break free from the cautious approach set out more than 30 years earlier by then-paramount-leader Deng Xiaoping – that China’s strategic approach should be to ‘hide its capacities and bide its time’. At the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 19th Congress in 2017, the BRI was integrated into the party’s charter. Much of the early analytical work on the BRI has focused on questions surrounding China’s motivations – economic or geopolitical. Is Xi’s initiative a response to changing domestic economic circumstances? Or does it signal evidence of China’s intent to build a twentyfirst- century imperium modelled on the post-war United States-led experience, more than on European colonial or earlier Asian empires? The emerging consensus on this question is that it has been a bit of both. At the same time, an often overlooked factor is Xi’s constant need to further consolidate his power inside China, as the economics versus geopolitics debate about the motivations for the BRI gives too little attention to the more purely political dimension. The BRI cannot be separated from Xi’s efforts to cast himself domestically as an exceptional leader for an exceptional moment in China’s history.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

83. 5 QUESTIONS ON DEVELOPMENT AND CONFLICT

Author:
David A. Lake and Eli Berman
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Violence is a feature of life in many developing countries. As governments, private philanthropic organizations, and communities work to reduce inequity, alleviate poverty, and improve the well-being of people living in low- and middle-income countries, what role does conflict play in stymying development? And can development reduce conflict? David Lake, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego, poses five questions about development and conflict to Eli Berman, research director at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and professor of economics at UC San Diego.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Governance, Afghanistan, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

84. The COVID-19 pandemic: Scenarios to Understand the International Impact

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread around the world in a matter of a few short months in 2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate duration and severity of the pandemic itself, are marked by deep uncertainty. While it is too early to forecast the consequences of COVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematically explore plausible trajectories for the medium-term future. This research paper uses scenarios to address the following question: what could be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economic and military balance of power over the course of the next five years? The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of change to build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clusters are governance and geopolitics. The governance cluster straddles the divide of domestic and international politics, combining social cohesion in societies, populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalism and state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuses on aspects of international leadership and alliances. In the economic arena, clusters formed around the themes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former, regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamics and Chinese technological leadership are considered. In the latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context of employment, public debt, finance and energy issues. In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflict and to military posture were combined to form clusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projections for threat perceptions, major-power war, conflict among middle powers and intra-state violence. Military posture is captured by examining issues around force projection, the digitisation of armed forces, defence-industrial dynamics, strategic stability and the role of nuclear weapons. Scenarios in this paper are not designed to predict the future, but they are meant to help bound the range of possible futures for which decision-makers may need to prepare. In the scenario Silver Linings, geopolitics in 2025 are characterised by cooperation and the recession of domestic governance challenges. The economic recovery was swift and comprehensive, and although the pandemic modified aspects of globalisation its basic tenets remained intact. Armed conflict of the inter-state and intra-state kind has declined, and military postures are increasingly driven by advanced technologies and a smaller number of overseas operations. In the Downfall scenario, a weakened societal fabric has generated governance challenges at home and geopolitics are characterised by conflict. Economic recovery following the collapse triggered by the pandemic remains slow and incomplete, and economic reordering leads to the fragmentation of pre-existing international ties at the state and commercial levels. Great-power war has become a realistic probability and growing state fragility brought about by the pandemic leads to an increase in armed conflict. The scenario Lost in Transition is full of countervailing forces introducing challenges and a sense of instability. In the realm of politics, the geopolitical situation is marred by conflict, but domestic governance structures are not particularly challenged. Economically, recovery is slow and there are attempts to decouple − leading to bifurcated economic activity − with each strand led by China and the United States respectively. Militarily, new alliances emerge but a key concern is the near-perfect storm that the pandemic has created for security and stability in Africa. The scenario Home Alone outlines a future world in which the economic recovery is highly uneven. Attempts to generate momentum for renewed international cooperation fail as great-power rivalries intensify – however, the European Union emerges as a more confident geopolitical actor. Globalisation is disrupted by a drive to create regional and local supply chains and China forces a bifurcation of production for some sectors. Armed conflict linked to state fragility increases markedly, while the ability and willingness of international actors to provide humanitarian assistance and crisis-management resources fall dramatically. The pandemic itself is an event of world-shattering proportions. Yet many of its political and military implications are likely to be evolutionary in nature. In the period considered here, the potential for radical change (and a break with past practice and assumptions) is perhaps greatest in the economic realm. Furthermore, the scenarios can be helpful in recognising courses of actions that appear to be robust in the sense that they would appear to yield beneficial results across a range of alternative futures. Of course, even ‘future history’ marches on and it will remain crucial to consider the impact of unfolding events to maintain a sense of the direction of travel. The scenario implications will be useful to policymakers seeking to identify particular developments that may be desirable or undesirable. This will in turn facilitate discussion about the levers available and the extent to which such developments can be influenced. The most important point to take away from a European perspective is that across the scenarios a coherent and cohesive Europe is a prerequisite to exploit opportunities and avoid becoming, if not the battleground, than at least the playground for the political and economic policies of others.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will have enduring effects on geopolitics and geo-economics in the Middle East, the Gulf and beyond. In this IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication we explore the regional and global implications of the pandemic, including essays on Gulf defence economics, global and great-power politics, the Gulf states’ development models, strategy and geo-economics.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

86. Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Slum Upgradation and Delisting in Odisha

Author:
Scaling City Institutions for India (SCI-FI)
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In continuation to the Government of Odisha’s landmark initiative of the Odisha Liveable Habitat Mission (OLHM), also known as the JAGA Mission, launched in 2018, and the successful implementation of the Odisha Land Rights to Slum Dwellers Act 2017, basic infrastructure upgradation and delisting of slums emerge as the next critical steps towards transforming these informal settlements into liveable habitats, integrated with the urban area. Towards this end the Scaling City Institutions for India (SCI-FI) initiative at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) as knowledge partner supported Housing and Urban Development Department, GoO to prepare a 'Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Participatory Slum Upgradation and Delisting’. The SOP intends to benefit the key stakeholders by laying down the procedure and benchmarks for undertaking participatory integrated slum level infrastructure upgradation and establishing procedure and documentation for delisting of the slum, to integrate it to the rest of the urban area. This SOP will act as an enabler for ULBs partnering with the Slum Dwellers’ Associations to ensure the availability of adequate basic services to mainstream the slums into the city fabric. This SOP lays down the integral steps to realise community-level benefits building on land rights distribution towards achieving the broader vision of a Liveable Habitat for all.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Urban, Land Rights, and Slums
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

87. A Hidden Cost: The Pandemic’s Impact on Nutrition

Author:
Avani Kapur and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This brief’s focus is solely on core nutrition specific interventions for pregnant women, lactating mothers, and children under six years of age. These address the immediate determinants of fetal and child nutrition and development. Nutrition-sensitive interventions are discussed where relevant.
Topic:
Development, Children, Women, Food Security, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

88. Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment: A Global and Historical Comparison, Ahmet T. Kuru

Author:
Elizabeth R. Nugent
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The economic decline of the Muslim world and the rise of Western Europe has long captured the attention of scholars across disciplines. Explanations largely focus either on Islam, whether its financial institutions or the essence of its teachings, or on Western colonialism as the culprit. In Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment, Ahmet T. Kuru puts forward a new explanation rooted in class relations. He takes issue with existing approaches, convincingly demonstrating the intellectual and economic vibrancy of the Muslim world between the eighth and twelfth centuries, undermining arguments about Islam’s incompatibility with progress, and asserting that colonialism occurred too late to explain multiple political and socioeconomic crises. Instead, Kuru identifies the eleventh century as a critical juncture when the Muslim world witnessed the emergence of alliances between Islamic scholars (ulema; singular alim) and the military. These alliances persisted through path dependence and gradually hindered intellectual and economic creativity by marginalizing independent intellectual and bourgeois classes in the Muslim world. In turn, the absence of these classes led to the persistence of authoritarianism and the well-documented underdevelopment in the contemporary period.
Topic:
Development, Islam, History, Authoritarianism, Book Review, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

89. A debate with the Kurdistan Region’s President

Author:
Middle East Research Institute
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This timely session was dedicated to a debate with the President of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) to discuss central geo-political and domestic developments, including the protests and the crisis of governance in Baghdad; the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria (particularly Rojava); and finally, the effects of internal political fissures within the KRI.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Baghdad, Syria, and Kurdistan

90. Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road and Debt Diplomacy in the Pacific

Author:
Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet. China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries. There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules. Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific