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2. Managing an Aging Society: Learning the Right Lessons from Japan
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- As the world and especially other Asian and European economies enter the accelerated process of aging that Japan experienced from the mid-1990s onwards, learning the right policy lessons from Japan’s response is crucial. This paper argues that, overall, Japan has done relatively well by implementing a response that—even if often belatedly so—has mitigated some of the worst economic effects of aging. Japan has successfully raised domestic labor utilization and immigration levels, integrated its economy more with the rest of the world, and implemented a fiscal policy based on debt expansion that has seen debt costs decline. Other advanced Asian economies and China now face aging processes materially faster than Japan’s and will age simultaneously rather than alone like Japan. In addition, many advanced economies will age during a period of much slower global economic growth and less rather than more global trade and investment opening than what Japan faced from the mid-1990s. These less benign international economic and political circumstances mean that many advanced economies will likely not age with the same relative political and economic stability seen in Japan in the last 30 years. In time, this paper argues, “Japanification” will no longer mean a slowly developing economic disaster but will come to mean competent management of a very difficult economic transition.
- Topic:
- Debt, Demographics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Fiscal Policy, Aging, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
3. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union
- Author:
- David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
- Topic:
- Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Europe
4. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space
- Author:
- Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
- Topic:
- Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU
- Author:
- Maria Gargano
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
- Topic:
- Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6. EU-Pacific Talks: Fostering Work-Life Balance in Diverse Societies
- Author:
- Simona Růžičková
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Another in the series of EU-Pacific talks dealt with fostering work-life balance in diverse societies. The debate focused on examining current demographic trends and their social consequences in high-income countries in Europe and Southeast Asia. The discussion also touched on social systems, flexible job opportunities, and the pressures women face when balancing work and private life.
- Topic:
- Demographics, European Union, Women, and Work-Life Balance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Southeast Asia
7. VI Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España: Los efectos de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital en la desigualdad
- Author:
- Juan Francisco Albert, Luis Ayala Cañón, Jordi Bosch Meda, Jesús Cruces, and Antonio Ferrer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El sexto Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España (2024) de la Fundación Alternativas centra su atención sobre el análisis de los efectos sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital, con un énfasis en su dimensión territorial. La valoración más compartida es que los cambios producidos por estos tres movimientos simultáneos, envejecimiento de la población, transición climática y transformación digital, van a afectar de manera notable a las desigualdades interterritoriales e interpersonales de nuestro país. En consecuencia, se propone una reflexión que aborde un análisis conjunto y desde la perspectiva de las políticas públicas de estos retos que permita avanzar en el conocimiento de los efectos de las transformaciones en marcha y de las que habrán de producirse en el futuro, ofreciendo adicionalmente una serie de recomendaciones de políticas. Estas recomen- daciones incluyen algunas medidas para abordar la transición demográfica y reducir sus efectos sobre la desigualdad territorial, las necesarias propuestas de reforma fiscal, las políticas de cuidados, la distribución territorial de los fon- dos para la digitalización y la prevención de riesgos climáticos por territorios, entre otras cuestiones de creciente importancia en el ámbito público. En la elaboración y producción del documento y sus recomendaciones han colaborado, además, la Fundación 1º de Mayo (CC OO) y Oxfam Intermón.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Demographics, Inequality, Economy, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
8. European Migration Policy: Recent Developments and the Way Forward
- Author:
- Evgenia Vella
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In light of the challenges posed by demographic shifts, skill shortages and rapid technological advances, European policymakers should prioritize targeted immigration policies. High-skilled immigrants contribute directly to innovation and economic growth, while low-skilled immigrants play essential roles in sectors like agriculture, healthcare, and services. Striking the right balance is essential for sustainable development. The EU’s recent policy changes, as outlined in the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, signal a shift toward a more comprehensive and coordinated approach. However, implementation challenges remain. Greece can draw lessons from the experiences of other EU member states. Tailoring policies to address regional disparities, fostering integration, and leveraging immigrant skills are critical steps for Greece’s migration strategy.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Migration, Labor Issues, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9. Japan’s Aging Society as a Technological Opportunity
- Author:
- Ken Kushida
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Japan’s extreme demographic aging and shrinking is an economic and societal challenge, but also a technological opportunity for global leadership. Technological trajectories of worker automation and worker skill augmentation within Japan are already being shaped by the country’s demographics. Software, robotics, and other technology deployments are transforming the nature of work in a wide range of sectors in Japan’s economy, and across types of work such as blue-collar, white-collar, agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Specific ways in which Japan’s demographics shape technological trajectories include market opportunities, acute labor shortages, and favorable political and regulatory dynamics. The private sector is driving technology deployments in industrial sectors hit hard by Japan’s aging population, ranging from construction and transportation to medical care and finance, with strong government support in each of the domains. Demographically driven technological trajectories play to Japan’s strengths in implementing, deploying, and improving technologies rather than generating breakthrough innovations. Japan’s demographically driven technological trajectory can be an important platform for international technology cooperation, fitting with the top U.S.-Japanese political leadership agreements on fostering strong innovation and technology collaboration ties. Japan’s start-up ecosystem, often in partnership with large incumbent firms, will be critical in deploying new technologies by defining new markets and providing new offerings. An effective analysis goes beyond broad demographic numbers to delve into specific pain points of particular segments of society to better capture their situations and roles in shaping market opportunities that drive technological adoption. This introductory paper: (1) defines key analytical concepts; (2) surveys some of Japan’s key demographic shifts; and (3) highlights cases from agriculture, construction, transportation, healthcare, eldercare, land, and housing ownership.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
10. Migration or stagnation: Aging and economic growth in Korea today, the world tomorrow
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- South Korea faces an unprecedented economic crisis driven by rapid population aging, as it approaches a future of negative economic growth. This paper examines the full range of possible policy responses with the potential to restore dynamism to the Korean economy. Contrary to many prior analyses, I find that enhanced labor migration to Korea is necessary, sufficient, and feasible. Migration is necessary because in the best forecasts we have, no other class of policy has the quantitative potential to meaningfully offset aging. Migration is sufficient because enhanced temporary labor migration by itself would offset most of Korea’s demographic drag on growth over the next 50 years. And migration is feasible because the levels of migration and timescale of the transition would resemble that already carried out by Malaysia and Australia. Many advanced economies will follow in Korea’s demographic footsteps in decades to come, and have much to learn from the decisions that the Korean government makes now.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea