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691. Democratic Talk and the Democratic Walk: Superficial Versus Sincere Support for Illiterate Voting Rights in Lebanon

Author:
Daniel Corstange
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Who supports illiterate voting rights? In the diverse societies of the developing world, suffrage restrictions on illiterate people can have both class and ethnic ramifications because illiteracy correlates with poverty and often with ethnic group membership. I demonstrate how examining the overlap of ethnic population distributions helps to identify individuals for whom satisfying material interests comes at the expense of identity interests and vice-versa. The salience of ethnicity in public discourse requires people to articulate identity demands that may be inconsistent with their material interests, opening up the possibility that what they say and what they think will diverge systematically. Empirically, I use an augmented list experiment in Lebanon to distinguish between superficial and sincere support for illiterate voting rights. I show that a direct question yields a sectarian answer in which Shiites are more supportive of those rights than are Sunnis or Christians, whereas an unobtrusive question produces an answer about material deprivation in which poor people are more supportive of illiterate voting than rich people.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

692. La Revocatoria de Mandato: Lecciones a Partir de la Experiencia Venezolana

Author:
Miriam Kornblith
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines four related aspects of the recall of elected officials as defined and used in Venezuela: 1) The context in which the recall emerged; 2) the activation of the presidential recall throughout 2003 and 2004, which concluded with the recall referendum of August 15, 2004; 3) the legal and substantive aspects of the recall; 4) the assessment of the use of the recall. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of this instrument of direct democracy from the Venezuelan experience.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

693. The High and the Low in Politics: A Two-Dimensional Political Space for Comparative Analysis and Electoral Studies

Author:
Pierre Ostiguy
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper introduces an indispensable dimension for the spatial and comparative analysis of party systems, cleavages, and the conduct of political campaigns. It presents the concepts of “high” and “low” in politics and the high-low dimension, which concerns ways of appealing (and thus relating) to people in sociologically differentiated ways. Politicians on the high are “well behaved,” more restrained, and proper, both in manners and institutional procedures. Politicians on the low sublimate less and are more down-to-earth, coarser, earthier, and personalistic, both in manners and institutionally. The high-low dimension is fully neutral, or orthogonal, with regard to the left-right axis, in contrast to Kitschelt's authoritarian/libertarian divide or Inglehart's materialist/post-materialist political cleavage. The paper also provides a solid conceptual discussion of the classic and almost universal polarity between left and right, which (like the high-low axis) is in fact comprised of two subdimensions.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America

694. Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies

Author:
Yumi Hiwatari
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
This book highlights the shifting power structure of Northeast Asia. In the introduction, the editor considers a variety of issues in perspective, and power transition, economic interdependence, and democratization are viewed as key concepts in analyzing the radical transformation of the region. The impact of rising China on the power balance of the region is substantial, and the dynamic growth of the economy and the resulting growth of interdependence are the distinguishing characteristics of the region. The region is witnessing an ongoing process of democratization, possibly inviting an unpredictable future. While realistic predictions tell us that these dynamic changes will bring about armed conflicts among nations, the authors however conclude that power politics in Northeast Asia indicates 'an uneasy but resilient “equilibrium” of spatially and temporally asymmetric power relations' (p. 279). This equilibrium is termed uneasy because two elements of revisionism stand out, one being the Korean Peninsular and the other being Sino-Taiwan relations. The players involved all have unilateral revisionist incentives, but the likelihood of small crises escalating into major armed conflicts is remote, and their 'hedged engagement' strategy should control tensions and not allow them to spiral.
Topic:
Security and Democratization
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Northeast Asia

695. Myanmar: Towards the Elections

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The bizarre prosecution and conviction of opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi for violating her house arrest has returned attention to repression in Myanmar, as preparations were underway for the first national elections in twenty years, now scheduled for 2010. This further undermined what little credibility the exercise may have had, especially when based on a constitution that institutionalises the military's political role. The UN Secretary-General's July visit, which produced no tangible results, added to the gloom. But while the elections will not be free and fair – a number of prominent regime opponents have been arrested and sentenced to prison terms over the last year – the constitution and elections together will fundamentally change the political landscape in a way the government may not be able to control. Senior Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye may soon step down or move to ceremonial roles, making way for a younger military generation. All stakeholders should be alert to opportunities that may arise to push the new government toward reform and reconciliation.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

696. Thinking Clearly about Economic Inequality

Author:
Will Wilkinson
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Recent discussions of economic inequality, marked by a lack of clarity and care, have confused the public about the meaning and moral significance of rising income inequality. Income statistics paint a misleading picture of real standards of living and real economic inequality. Several strands of evidence about real standards of living suggest a very different picture of the trends in economic inequality. In any case, the dispersion of incomes at any given time has, at best, a tenuous connection to human welfare or social justice. The pattern of incomes is affected by both morally desirable and undesirable mechanisms. When injustice or wrongdoing increases income inequality, the problem is the original malign cause, not the resulting inequality. Many thinkers mistake national populations for “society” and thereby obscure the real story about the effects of trade and immigration on welfare, equality, and justice. There is little evidence that high levels of income inequality lead down a slippery slope to the destruction of democracy and rule by the rich. The unequal political voice of the poor can be addressed only through policies that actually work to fight poverty and improve education. Income inequality is a dangerous distraction from the real problems: poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and systemic injustice.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Social Stratification

697. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary

Author:
Bryan Groves
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

698. Local Election Disputes in Indonesia: The Case of North Maluku

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The election for governor in Indonesia's North Maluku province was one of the most bitterly contested since direct elections for local government heads were introduced in 2005. Held in November 2007, it remains in dispute more than a year later, although a winner has been named and inaugurated. At one point it seemed as if violence between the two sides could escalate into serious communal conflict, in an area where thousands had died in religious violence a decade earlier. By early 2009, however, it looked as though Indonesia's democratic institutions would be resilient enough to cope with an election gone wrong, and the dispute would be quietly resolved in the Constitutional Court. The Court's decision is expected in early February. The dispute that many thought could trigger further turmoil may prove instead to be a minor wrangle in Indonesia's largely successful effort to choose local government leaders by direct popular vote.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

699. Iraq's Provincial Elections: The Stakes

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 31 January, Iraqis will head to the polls in fourteen of eighteen governorates to elect new provincial councils. The stakes are considerable. Whereas the January 2005 elections helped put Iraq on the path to all-out civil war, these polls could represent another, far more peaceful turning point. They will serve several important objectives: refreshing local governance; testing the strength of various parties; and serving as a bellwether for nationwide political trends. In several governorates, new parties or parties that failed to run four years ago may oust, or at least reduce the dominance of, a handful of dominant parties whose rule has been marred by pervasive mismanagement and corruption. This in itself would be a positive change with far-reaching consequences as the nation braces for parliamentary elections later in 2009.
Topic:
Civil Society, Civil War, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

700. Tajikistan: On the Road to Failure

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Far from being a bulwark against the spread of extremism and violence from Afghanistan, Tajikistan is looking increasingly like its southern neighbour – a weak state that is suffering from a failure of leadership. Energy infrastructure is near total breakdown for the second winter running, and it is likely migrant labourer remittances, the driver of the country's economy in recent years, will fall dramatically as a result of the world economic crisis. President Emomali Rakhmon may be facing his greatest challenge since the civil war of 1992-97. At the very least the government will be confronted with serious economic problems, and the desperately poor population will be condemned to yet more deprivation. At worst the government runs the risk of social unrest. There are few indications that the Rakhmon administration is up to this challenge. To address the situation, the international community – both at the level of international organisations and governments – should ensure any assistance reaches those who truly need it, place issues of governance and corruption at the centre of all contacts with the Tajik government, and initiate an energetic dialogue with President Rakhmon on democratisation.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Government, Islam, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Tajikistan