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611. Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Author:
Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's 2011 polls will mark the fourth multiparty election in Nigeria and, if a power transfer occurs, only the second handover of civilian administrations since the country's return to democracy in 1999. Past election cycles have featured political assassinations, voter intimidation, intra-and interparty clashes, and communal unrest. Party primary season, the days immediately surrounding elections, and the announcement of results have been among the most violent periods in previous cycles. Although the most recent elections in 2007 derived some benefit from local conflict management capacity, they were roundly criticized for being neither free nor fair. The 2011 elections could mark a turning point in the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy, but they could also provoke worsening ethnosectarian clashes and contribute to the continuing scourge of zero-sum politics. President Umaru Yar'Adua, who died in May 2010, kept his 2007 inauguration promise to create an Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) but failed to adopt key recommendations that the committee made. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a widely respected professor, Attahiru Jega, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission, inspiring hope that electoral processes will improve in 2011. The issue of “zoning,” the political elite's power-sharing agreement, has taken center stage in the current election cycle and will drive significant conflict if the debate around it devolves into outright hostilities. his unusual election cycle, local and international organizations and Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) must redouble their efforts both to prevent and resolve conflicts and to promote conflict sensitivity. The near term requires an increasingly important role for the judiciary in combating electoral fraud, and the longer term requires the creation of the ERC–recommended Electoral Offenses Commission, which would specialize in the investigation and prosecution of crimes. Local agencies and respected community leaders must remain proactive and creative in violence-prevention programming, irrespective of international funding. Established local organizations with preexisting networks are best situated to perform early-warning and conflict management functions. High voter turnout and citizen monitoring are vital for ensuring that the 2011 elections in Nigeria are credible and civil.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

612. The Developmental State in Africa: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Peter Meyns (ed) and Charity Musamba (ed)
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Against the background of successful developmental experiences in East Asia this report discusses the relevance of the developmental state concept to conditions in Africa. In her contribution Charity Musamba reviews the main theoretical literature on the developmental state and identifies four key features which have informed successful implementation in East Asian countries. With regard to Africa, she challenges the “impossibility theorem” and supports African analysts who defend the need for a democratic developmental state in Africa. Peter Meyns analyzes the development path of an African country, Botswana, which – not withstanding certain weaknesses– can be seen as an example of a successful developmental state in the African context.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

613. Parliamentary War Powers Around the World, 1989-2004. A New Dataset

Author:
Dirk Peters, Wolfgang Wagner, and Cosima Glahn
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
War powers have been contested between governments and parliaments throughout the history of democratic politics and political theory. On the one hand, the authorisation of standing armies, of conscription and of taxes for the purpose of waging war has been the raison d'être of early modern parliamentarianism ever since the English nobility reached a constitutional settlement in the Glorious Revolution of 1688. Moreover, as few decisions potentially have a more severe impact on the lives of citizens than decisions regarding military missions, one can argue that no meaningful notion of democracy could possibly exempt them from parliamentary control (see Lord, 2008). On the other hand, theorists of democratic politics have been concerned that parliamentary influence over military deployments would threaten to undermine executive flexibility and thus hamper the effectiveness of military operations. Machiavelli, Locke, Montesquieu and de Tocqueville all argued that the executive should be able to decide autonomously over the deployment of armed forces (see Damrosch, 2002: 43; Owens and Pelizzo, 2009). Both arguments have survived significant changes in the nature of armed conflict, with self-defence and peace-support missions replacing war as legal and legitimate forms of military force (Neff, 2005).
Topic:
Democratization, Political Theory, History, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

614. Parliamentary War Powers: A Survey of 25 European Parliaments

Author:
Sandra Dieterich, Hartwig Hummel, and Stefan Marschall
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This paper presents a survey of parliamentary 'war powers' based on a comprehensive and detailed review of the degrees and institutional forms of parliamentary involvement in military security policy-making. As our original research project focused on the involvement of European Union (EU) states in the recent Iraq war, we present data for the then 25 member and accession states of the EU as of early 2003. This survey of parliamentary war powers covers the legislative, budgetary, control, communicationrelated and dismissal powers of the respective parliaments relating to the use of military force. Referring to this data, we distinguish five classes of democratic nation-states, ranging from those with 'very strong' to those with only 'very weak' war powers of the respective national parliament.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:
Iraq and Europe

615. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries

Author:
Tim Wegenast
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The literature on institutional determinants of intra-state violence commonly asserts that the presence of multiple political parties reduces the conflict potential within countries; by co-opting oppositional groups into an institutionalized political arena, dissidents would prefer parliamentarian means over violent rebellion in order to pursue their goals. The present paper shows that this proposition does not necessarily hold for fuel-abundant states. In the presence of natural resources such as oil or gas, countries exhibiting numerous non-competitive parties are actually more susceptible to internal conflict. Fortified by the establishment of legal political parties, regime opponents succumb more easily to the prospects of securing resource revenues, adopting rapacious behaviour. Fuel-related internal grievances as well as the opposition's disaffection over the lack of effective political leverage and government use of political violence provide a seemingly legitimate motive for armed rebellion. Moreover, financial means for insurgency are raised by extortion or the possibility of selling future exploitation rights to natural resources. Logit models using different estimation techniques and alternative operationalizations corroborate the proposed claim. The argumentation is further illustrated by a depiction of the Colombian case.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Colombia

616. Strengthening Popular Participation in the African Union

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) has committed to a vision of Africa that is 'integrated, prosperous and peaceful … driven by its own citizens, a dynamic force in the global arena' (Vision and Mission of the African Union, May 2004).
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

617. Rigged Elections in Darfur and the Consequences of a Probable NCP Victory in Sudan

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The principal preoccupation of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is to win the elections now scheduled for 11-13 April 2010. It has manipulated the census results and voter registration, drafted the election laws in its favour, gerrymandered electoral districts, co-opted traditional leaders and bought tribal loyalties. It has done this all over Sudan, but especially in Darfur, where it has had freedom and means to carry out its strategy, since that is the only region still under emergency rule. Because of the fundamentally flawed process, the international community, working closely with the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan (AUHIP), should acknowledge that whoever wins will likely lack legitimacy; press for Darfur peace talks to resume immediately after the elections; insist that any Darfur peace deal provides for a new census, voter registration and national elections; and lay the groundwork for a peaceful referendum on southern self-determination and post referendum North-South relations.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

618. Ethnic Party Bans in East Africa from a Comparative Perspective

Author:
Anika Moroff
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Since 1990 the banning of ethnic and other identity-based parties has become the norm in sub-Saharan Africa. This article focuses on Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as three East African countries that have opted for different ways of dealing with such parties. Using case studies, it traces the origins of the party bans in Tanzania and Uganda and explores the reasons for the absence of a ban in Kenya. The analysis shows that the laws on particularistic parties have actually been implemented by the appropriate institutions. However, these laws have only marginally influenced the character of the political parties in the three countries: A comparison of regional voting patterns suggests that bans on particularistic parties have not ensured the emergence of aggregative parties with a national following in Tanzania and Uganda. In Kenya on the other hand, where such a ban was nonexistent until 2008, parties have not proven to be more regional.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

619. Trends in Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Studies indicate that violence in Africa's elections affects between 19 and 25 percent of elections. In many countries where electoral violence is a risk, it tends to recur and may consequently lead to an unfavorable view of democratization. The regularity with which electoral violence occurs suggests that underlying grievances or structural characteristics may be tied to the elections and fuel the violence. Electoral violence, especially recurrent, seems indicative of more widespread systemic grievances and tensions. Tensions over land rights, employment and ethnic marginalization are three dominant characteristics of recurring electoral violence. These areas intersect and are frequently manipulated by politicians. Some recent actions taken by the government and civil society may offer insights into reversing the trends of recurring violence. These actions warrant further analysis in order to improve strategies to reduce violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa

620. Congo: l'enlisement du projet démocratique

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La consolidation de la démocratie en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) est entravée dans presque toutes ses dimensions et le régime congolais reste fragile. Lorsque Joseph Kabila est devenu le premier président élu démocratiquement en 2006, la communauté internationale a considéré cette élection comme une avancée majeure du processus de paix. Aujourd'hui, l'équilibre des pouvoirs est quasiment inexistant. Le cabinet présidentiel a pris l'ascendant sur le gouvernement, le parlement et le pouvoir judiciaire. Les libertés fondamentales sont fréquemment menacées et des réformes institutionnelles essentielles – la décentralisation et la réforme du secteur de la sécurité – n'ont pas significativement progressé.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo