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472. El cambio en el régimen de políticas a través de la crisis. Análisis del desempeño gubernamental frente a las crisis en Argentina, España y México.
- Author:
- Juan Carlos Montero Bagatella
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- Crises are unexpected events that trigger and enable change in the policy regime. To analyze how the policy paradigm changes, this paper analyzes three different crises: Argentina in 2000-2003, Spain in 2008-2011, and Mexico in 1994-1996. The question of the article is: How does crisis trigger change in the policy regime? To answer, is shown that crisis destroy the preexisting government's coalitions, enable the formation of new coalitions that face the crisis that are also substituted after the crisis for a new coalition to institutionalize the new policy paradigm.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
473. La disputa por la mediación durante el kirchnerismo en Argentina.
- Author:
- Lucía Vincent
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- Nestor Kirchner, the ex Argentinean President, developed a unique and new way of relating with the press, totally divergent from the method that previous democratic governments used to have. Through the analysis of Kirchner´ speeches, this article will illustrate in which way the president aimed to weaken the media, removing them from their position as the “forth power” and “objective mediators” between the government and the citizens. Those transformations are due to the conditions in which he developed a specific type of leadership. Those changes, also, had consequences in the political representation and in the current characteristics of the democratic system in Argentina.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Politics, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
474. Protectors of Putin's vertical: Russian power ministries before the 2011-2012 elections
- Author:
- Alexander Golts
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the traditional behaviour during the election period, the Russian government is risking irritating the security ministries and agencies by conducting extremely painful reforms in the Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior. However, the authorities cannot avoid such reforms because of the total inefficiency of these two “power ministries”. In the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian conflict in August 2008, the Defence Ministry decided to carry out the most radical military reform undertaken in Russia over the past 100 years. However, it is still unclear whether the reformers will be able to resolve the main problem concerning the military construction – the repeal of conscription. In contrast to the Armed Forces, the reform of the Ministry of the Interior does not even touch the major deficiencies in the law enforcement agencies, namely their centralization, lack of public control, and the prevalence of repressive functions over protection of citizens. The ongoing reform is merely a great purge. The country's leadership believes that by firing corrupt police officers, it can solve the problem of corruption in general. The reform of the Security Council and the rejection of any reform of the Ministry of the Interior troops is a prescription for possible public unrest rather than an attempt to improve inter-agency coordination. The genuine reason for these reforms is the complete exhaustion of Prime Minister Putin's model of organizing the security forces. Yet, the next president will need their complete loyalty because of the real possibility of public unrest in the next few years.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia
475. Renewing MONUSCO'S Mandate: What Role Beyond the Elections?
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis and Guillaume Lacaille
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- As they prepare to discuss the renewal of MONUSCO's mandate six months ahead of general elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the members of the UN Security Council are facing a dilemma. Should they limit the role of MONUSCO to the continued protection of civilians in eastern Congo, as agreed with President Joseph Kabila, or should they expand its mandate in an attempt to enforce democratic principles before the elections at the risk of confronting the incumbent regime? This issue brief argues that MONUSCO should be limited to a technical role in the election—as requested by the Congolese authorities—but only on the condition that the international community reengages President Kabila in a frank political dialogue on long term democratic governance reforms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
476. The 2012 Presidential Elections in Russia: What Future for the Medvedev-Putin Tandem?
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The 2012 Russian presidential election and the future of the Medvedev-Putin tandem have started to dominate political debate inside and outside the country. Several developments in Russia's domestic politics have made predictions on the future president particularly arduous. These include Russia's so-called modernization initiative; Mikhail Prokhorov's debut on the Russian political scene, and the new presidential decree on the "Security Council Questions". Yet, analysing these developments suggests that whether Putin will return to the presidency or whether he will remain the de facto leader is unlikely to have major repercussions on Russian domestic policy. For Russia, the priority today is the need to maintain internal stability and formal democracy, necessary to attract foreign technologies and thus advance the modernization initiative as well as to guarantee elite continuity through an internal balance between the siloviki faction and the liberals. Both a renewed Medvedev-Putin tandem and a return of Putin to the presidency fulfil these goals. While much debated, the personality of the future Russian president is unlikely to represent a major game changer in Russia today.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia
477. Democracy in Europe: Politicizing Champions for the European Public Sphere
- Author:
- Matteo Garavoglia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The democratic deficit in the relationship between European institutions and citizens stems from the lack of a pan-European public sphere where supranational policy-making and national politics can be reconciled. One of the key reasons for the absence of a pan-European public sphere is the extremely limited politicization of European policy-making in the eyes of European citizens in a context whereby Europe is perceived as an entity of "policy without politics". The aim of this paper is to highlight how a politicization of the European policy-making process through a dialectical engagement of progressive and liberal forces with conservative and nationalistic ones can contribute to the development of a pan-European public sphere.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
478. A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Stefano Silvestri
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union urgently has to work out a new strategy towards the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It has to back the democratic transformations of Arab societies, but also assert the need for new cooperation in the field of security so that the inevitable changes do not produce new international crises and do not generate new threats. The EU can take advantage of a favourable situation which, however, may not last long. This is a crucial test for the Union's common foreign and security policy after Lisbon.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lisbon
479. Myanmar: Major Reform Underway
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Six months after the transition to a new, semi-civilian government, major changes are taking place in Myanmar. In the last two months, President Thein Sein has moved rapidly to begin implementing an ambitious reform agenda first set out in his March 2011 inaugural address. He is reaching out to long-time critics of the former regime, proposing that differences be put aside in order to work together for the good of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi has seized the opportunity, meeting the new leader in Naypyitaw and emerging with the conviction that he wants to achieve positive change. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seems convinced that Myanmar is heading in the right direction and may soon confer upon it the leadership of the organisation for 2014. This would energise reformers inside the country with real deadlines to work toward as they push for economic and political restructuring. Western policymakers should react to the improved situation and be ready to respond to major steps forward, such as a significant release of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
480. Guinee: Remettre la Transition sur les Rails
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Après l'élection d'Alpha Condé à la présidence en novembre 2010, des élections législatives doivent clôturer une nouvelle étape de la transition politique guinéenne. La récente expérience de politisation violente des ethnicités et le manque de confiance des acteurs politiques dans le dispositif électoral sont des motifs d'inquiétude. Le président Condé a engagé unilatéralement une refonte du système électoral, mais il suscite d'autant plus de méfiance que les perspectives du parti présidentiel pour les législatives sont incertaines. Il n'a prêté que peu d'attention, et bien tard, à la réconciliation et au dialogue avec son opposition, très mobilisée. La Guinée ne peut se permettre ni un bricolage du système électoral ni une nouvelle campagne fondée sur des arguments ethniques. Un accroissement des tensions à l'approche du scrutin pourrait susciter des violences intercommunautaires. Il pourrait aussi offrir une opportunité d'agir à ceux qui, dans l'armée, se satisfont mal d'avoir regagné les casernes. L'attaque lancée le 19 juillet 2011 par des militaires contre la résidence du président confirme la réalité de ce risque. Un véritable accord entre les principaux acteurs politiques sur les modalités des élections législatives est impératif et urgent. Sans une forte implication internationale, les chances de parvenir à un tel accord sont minces.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa