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451. Assessing 12-year Military Reform in Indonesia:Major Strategic Gaps for the Next Stage of Reform

Author:
Leonard C. Sebastian and Iisgindarsah
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Indonesian military remains one of the most crucial institutions in a democratising Indonesia and continues to be a key factor in any discussion regarding the future of the country. Forced to withdraw from formal politics at the end of the New Order regime, the military leadership has been embarking on a series of reforms to "professionalise" the armed forces, while maintaining their standing within Indonesian society. This paper attempts to provide an assessment of the military reform process during the last 12 years in Indonesia. To this end, it will provide an overview regarding the role of the Indonesian military during the Suharto era; analyse to what extent the process of democratisation has shaped the role and mission of the military; explore the perceptions and motivations of the actors involved in the reform process; review what has been achieved; and highlight the outstanding issues that remain unaddressed. With regard to the final point, this paper discerns three major strategic gaps that undermine the processes of military reform in Indonesia, namely: the "regulation loophole", the "defence-economic gap" and the "shortcomings of democratic civilian control". Considering these problems, this paper concludes that while the military officers' interest in day-to-day politics will gradually diminish, the military professionalism will ebb and flow depending more on the behaviour of political elites and their attempts to address the major strategic gaps in the next stage of the country's military reform.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

452. Europeanization Subverted? The European Union's Promotion of Good Governance and the Fight against Corruption in the Southern Caucasus

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel and Yasemin Pamuk
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In order to foster peace, stability and prosperity in its near abroad, the European Union has invoked the European Neighbourhood Policy that seeks to transform the domestic structures of the Newly Independent States in the post-Soviet space thus building a “ring of friends” that share European norms and principles of democracy, rule of the law, market economy, and good governance. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that the EU's capacity to hit across its borders and to realize its reform agenda seems limited. Moreover, most neighborhood countries appear to be stuck in transition and suffer from serious problems of both weak state capacity and defect democracy. Hence, EU efforts may also bear the danger of unintended and negative effects on the domestic structures of states, as its policies and institutions do not only empower liberal reform coalitions, to the extent that they exist in the first place, but can also bolster the power of incumbent authoritarian and corrupt elites. This paper intends to capture this “dark side of Europeanization” (Schimmelfennig 2007). It thus conceptualizes ENP as a political opportunity structure that provides opportunities and constraints to both supporters and opponents of the European Union's reform agenda. Which of the two ultimately get empowered depends not only on the EU's capacity to push for reforms but also on the pull of domestic actors.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Europe

453. Divided we fail: Time for the EU to speak with one voice to Belarus

Author:
Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The West has come to admit that the Belarusian regime is indifferent to incentives and sanctions alike. The crackdown on the opposition that has been ongoing since Alexander Lukashenka's last fraudulent re-election shows that Belarus is drifting ever further away from democratic values and the EU's “ring of friends”. Reversing this trend requires EU member states to acknowledge that they bear part of the responsibility for the failure of the engagement policy launched in October 2008.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Brussels

454. Much ado about nothing: The EU's transport dialogue with Russia

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Transport is one of those few topics where the EU and Russia seem to have come to an agreement. The common understanding is that further integration of the transport systems and the removal of bottle necks serves the interests of both parties in the face of the expected increase in traffic volumes.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

455. Managing Ethnic Conflict: The Menu of Institutional Engineering

Author:
Matthias Basedau
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The debate on institutional engineering offers options to manage ethnic and other conflicts. This contribution systematically assesses the logic of these institutional designs and the empirical evidence on their functioning. Generally, institutions can work on ethnic conflict by either accommodating (“consociationalists”) or denying (“integrationists”) ethnicity in politics. Looking at individual and combined institutions (e.g. state structure, electoral system, forms of government), the literature review finds that most designs are theoretically ambivalent and that empirical evidence on their effectiveness is mostly inconclusive. The following questions remain open: a) Is politicized ethnicity really a conflict risk? b) What impact does the whole “menu” (not just single institutions) have? and c) How are effects conditioned by the exact nature of conflict risks?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance

456. Confronting the News: The State of Independent Media in Latin America

Author:
Douglas Farah
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Freedom of expression and of the press in much of Latin America are under sustained attack by numerous authoritarian governments in the region, as well as non-state armed actors such as drug trafficking organizations and paramilitary groups. These attacks have made Latin America one of the most dangerous places in the world in which to be a journalist. Overall, the region, with the exception of the Caribbean, has suffered an almost uninterrupted deterioration of press freedoms over the past five years, reaching its lowest point since the military dictatorships of the 1980s.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Mass Media, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

457. Elections in Africa: Mixed Blessings for Growth and Poverty Alleviation

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Good governance and free elections are often described as preconditions for growth and poverty alleviation. But recent research tells a different story. Although elections motivate political elites to be responsive to popular demands the effects are ambiguous. This has implications for how donors should support policy initiatives in the productive sectors.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

458. The Syrian People's Slow-motion Revolution

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough. The regime was not alone in believing in a form of Syrian exceptionalism that would shield it from serious popular unrest. Once the uprising began, it did not develop quickly, as in Egypt or Tunisia. Although it did not remain peaceful, it did not descend into a violent civil war, as in Libya, or sectarian affair, as in Bahrain. To this day, the outcome remains in doubt. Demonstrations have been growing in impressive fashion but have yet to attain critical mass. Regime support has been declining as the security services' brutality has intensified, but many constituents still prefer the status quo to an uncertain and potentially chaotic future. What is clear, however, is the degree to which a wide array of social groups, many once pillars of the regime, have turned against it and how relations between state and society have been forever altered.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

459. Estonia and the Euro: They Just Did It

Author:
Michael C. Polt
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Estonia is remarkable. On January 1 of this year, Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip fulfilled one of his government's most fervent policy goals by changing his nation's currency to the euro. At the stroke of midnight he withdrew 20 euros from an ATM in the heart of Tallinn's Freedom Square. It marked the latest (and one of the most important) milestones on Estonia's two-decade journey from occupied Soviet republic to a prosperous, stable and democratic example for others to follow. The mechanics of the switch-over were handled flawlessly. Not only the Prime Minister's ATM worked—all of the machines worked all over Estonia. Why was I not surprised?
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and Estonia

460. Cutting the Link between Crime and Local Politics: Colombia's 2011 Elections

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Deeply entrenched connections between criminal and political actors are a major obstacle to conflict resolution in Colombia. Illegal armed groups seek to consolidate and expand their holds over local governments in the October 2011 governorship, mayoral, departmental assembly and municipal council elections. The national government appears more willing and better prepared than in the past to curb the influence of illegal actors on the elections, but the challenges remain huge. The high number of killed prospective candidates bodes ill for the campaign, suggesting that the decade-old trend of decreasing electoral violence could be reversed. There are substantial risks that a variety of additional means, including intimidation and illegal money, will be used to influence outcomes. The government must rigorously implement additional measures to protect candidates and shield the electoral process against criminal infiltration, corruption and fraud. Failure to mitigate these risks would mean in many places four more years of poor local governance, high levels of corruption and enduring violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America