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352. Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy for a Post-exceptionalist Era
- Author:
- G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the past half-century—what is often called the “American century”—the United States enjoyed extraordinary success, growth, and influence. It was not only the pivotal “arsenal” in the defense of democracy but also the principal exemplar of democratic capitalism that held enormous appeal around the world. During this era, the United States was simultaneously locked in a geopolitical and ideological bipolar struggle with the Soviet Union and, within the free world community, acknowledged as the leader and defender of a broad community of democratic capitalist countries. Not surprisingly, therefore, the United States pursued a multifaceted grand strategy. It played the role of Cold War leader of a coalition in global great power rivalry. It was also the indispensable leader in building order and cooperation within the free world camp. At the same time, the United States often employed its immense influence to advance a universalistic program of human betterment centered on political democracy, market capitalism, free trade, human rights, national self-determination, and international law and organization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Soviet Union
353. Political Unrest in Venezuela
- Author:
- Patrick D. Duddy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda–– who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Venezuela
354. Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Closer U.S.-South Africa Relations
- Author:
- John Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- As Zimbabwe moves closer to elections, the prospect for political violence, even civil war, grows. President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are wrangling over a new constitution and the timing of upcoming elections. The eighty-eight-year-old Mugabe is suffering from cancer and wants elections soon to ensure his "liberation" legacy. At the same time, Mugabe-allied military factions, flush with off-the-books cash from Marange diamonds mined in the eastern part of the country, are mobilizing to stay in power when Mugabe dies. Political murder is on the upswing and Zimbabwe is as tense and divided now as it was during the run-up to the violent 2008 elections.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe
355. Russia's pressure politics: The Kremlin's uncompromising approach to opponents threatens political stability
- Author:
- Sean Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- If Russia is to follow an evolutionary path to democracy, then the regime must be ready to draw the so-called 'non-systemic' opposition into political processes. This gradualist formula for democratic change is also the formula for political stability. A number of liberalising reforms conducted by the regime in response to widespread protests following the December 2011 State Duma election gave grounds for optimism that this process is now underway. However, any hopes that these events would kick-start democratic reforms were short-lived. Rather than draw in opponents, the regime has sought to isolate them, using a combination of reform, non-reform, dividing tactics and repression. But the results have not been positive. The non-systemic opposition is under increasing pressure, having seen its options all but reduced to more protesting. It is also showing signs of radicalisation. At the same time, the Kremlin's uncompromising approach is undermining regime stability. The pressure is building in the Russian political system. The combination of repression and radicalisation could easily see political stagnation degenerate into instability and the EU should take this new dynamic into account in its future policy planning.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Democratization, Government, Political Economy, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
356. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform
- Author:
- Victoria Christensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become commonplace in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Tehran, and Kobani
357. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I): The Jos Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since 2001, violence has erupted in Jos city, capital of Plateau state, in Nigeria's Middle Belt region. The ostensible dispute is over the “rights” of the indigene Berom/ Anaguta/Afizere (BAA) group and the rival claims of the Hausa-Fulani settlers to land, power and resources. Indigene- settler conflicts are not new to Nigeria, but the country is currently experiencing widespread intercommunal strife, which particularly affects the Middle Belt. The Jos crisis is the result of failure to amend the constitution to privilege broad-based citizenship over exclusive indigene status and ensure that residency rather than indigeneity determines citizens' rights. Constitutional change is an important step to defuse indigene-settler rivalries that continue to undermine security. It must be accompanied by immediate steps to identify and prosecute perpetrators of violence, in Jos and other parts of the country. Elites at local, state and federal level must also consistently implement policies aimed at reducing the dangerous link between ethnic belonging and access to resources, power and security if intercommunal violence is to end.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
358. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril
- Author:
- Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
359. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition
- Author:
- Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
360. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE
- Author:
- Joe Stork
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman