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202. A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 22 May, for the twelfth time in Thailand's history, the army seized power after months of political turbulence. This is not simply more of the same. The past decade has seen an intensifying cycle of election, protest and government downfall, whether at the hands of the courts or military, revealing deepening societal cleavages and elite rivalries, highlighting competing notions of legitimate authority. A looming royal succession, prohibited by law from being openly discussed, adds to the urgency. A failure to fix this dysfunction risks greater turmoil. The military's apparent prescription – gelding elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions – is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion, given a recent history of a newly empowered electorate. For the army, buyer's remorse is not an option, nor is open-ended autocracy; rather its legacy, and Thailand's stability, depend on its success in forging a path – thus far elusive – both respectful of majoritarian politics and in which all Thais can see their concerns acknowledged.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Thailand
203. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Arabia
204. Behind Closed Doors: The risk of denying women a voice in determining Afghanistan's future
- Author:
- Elizabeth Cameron and Jorrit Kamminga
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- As the Taliban regime fell in 2001 after six years of abuse and oppression, the international community made a promise to the women of Afghanistan, that it would never again abandon them. The protection of their rights, at least in part, became a key element to afterwards legitimize the war which followed. It is 13 years since Colin Powell, then- US Secretary of State, declared that, 'the rights of the women in Afghanistan will not be negotiable.' Now Afghan women are questioning what the future holds.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
205. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Norah Niland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
206. Closing Space: Democracy and Human Rights Support Under Fire
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- AFTER SEEING ITS REACH INCREASE FOR DECADES, international support for democracy and human rights faces a serious challenge: more and more governments are erecting legal and logistical barriers to democracy and rights programs, publicly vilifying international aid groups and their local partners, and harassing such groups or expelling them altogether. Despite the significant implications of the pushback, the roots and full scope of the phenomenon remain poorly understood and responses to it are often weak.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
207. Subnational Electoral Contexts and Corruption in Mexico
- Author:
- Brian M. Faughnan, Jonathan T. Hiskey, and Scott D. Revey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Scholars of the world's most recent democratization processes have tended to focus on how national-level institutions have developed and how citizens have interpreted and responded to those developments. In this paper, we argue that the distinct subnational political environments that emerge from uneven national regime transitions are important determinants of how people view their political world. Specifically, we argue that citizens' experiences with and attitudes towards corruption are particularly influenced by the subnational political context in which those citizens live. We use survey data from across Mexico to test our theoretical expectations that a multi-party electoral context will heighten citizens' awareness of corruption as a governance issue, even as their chances of being victimized by corrupt behavior is reduced. Conversely, we posit that one-party electoral environments should facilitate a "business as usual" attitude toward corruption among government officials and citizens. As efforts to deepen democracy and improve governance continue across the developing world, our findings highlight the need to incorporate subnational political processes into efforts to under- stand and address such critical issues as corruption and its consequences.
- Topic:
- Corruption and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
208. IFES 2013 Annual Report
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
- Abstract:
- Two years ago our tagline was born, succinctly describing our vision and how we contribute to democratic development around the world: Global Expertise. Local Solutions. Sustainable Democracy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Political Activism, and Reform
209. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and Egypt
210. Negotiating Libya's Constitution
- Author:
- Duncan Pickard and Karim Mezran
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Among the many problems facing Libya's troubled transition to democracy is the challenge of constructing a state in a country with a legacy of weak institutions. Muammar al-Qaddafi's brutal forty-two-year dictatorship employed a policy of de-institutionalization, leaving the presence of the state feeble throughout the country. Those organs that were powerful, including the secret security apparatus, lost their leader with Qaddafi's fall in 2011, leaving a power vacuum that nonstate actors have scrambled to fill. Some of the most influential political groups in Libya today are militias formed during and after the revolution. Although some are loosely affiliated with the ministries of interior or defense, most, if not all, do not demonstrate any particular loyalty to the government. Militias have kidnapped the prime minister (the militia responsible called it an “arrest”), assassinated judges and police officers, physically occupied the office of the justice minister, and engaged in an urban battle in Tripoli. They also seek to advance their political interests—which vary, but include influence over officials, rent seeking, and some Islamist agendas—with threats against ministries or officials. And yet the state relies on militias to provide essential security services such as running checkpoints and protecting the airport because no ministry force is up to the task. The ascendancy of these militias points to two troubling realities: the state lacks a monopoly over the use of force and the country faces an ongoing deterioration of the rule of law.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa