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2421. The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR

Author:
Kenneth F. McKenzie
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In 416 B.C., the Athenian-led Delian League, then the dominant naval power of the Hellenic World, was locked in a death struggle with its rival, Sparta, and its Peloponnesian allies. In the wake of the battle of Mantinea, and on the eve of the ill-fated naval expedition to Syracuse, the small island of Melos in the northern Cretan Sea had become an object of strategic concern to Athens which south to force Melos to join the Delian League and pay tribute. The Melians refused and claimed the moral right of a state to remain neutral. "Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power," answered the Athenians; The strong do what they wish and the weak suffer what they must."
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law

2422. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union

2423. Defense Monitor: The Impact Of National Missile Defense On Russia and Nuclear Security

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Russia s nuclear arsenal is broke and broken. Moscow s overall economic decline has taken a large toll on Russian security during the past decade. Its military cannot adequately perform traditional, essential security missions — airspace surveillance and defense, territorial defense against invasion, border control, and maintenance of internal cohesion. The sole exception to this dismal state of military affairs is nuclear deterrence, and even this mission is becoming burdensome.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

2424. Defense Monitor: CDI Welcomes New President

Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
On March 1 the Center for Defense Information welcomed its new President, Mr. Bruce G. Blair. Mr. Blair takes the helm from retired U.S. Senator Dale Bumpers, whose steady hand guided the Center as it made the transition from the 20th to the 21st Century. Mr. Blair brings to the job first-hand knowledge of the U.S. military and how it works, having served in the U.S. Air Force for four years following his graduation from the University of Illinois. He, like his predecessor, adds another highly complementary and invaluable dimension to CDI's base of experience: more than a decade spent in intense study and research into what may be the two most important continuing national security questions of the 21st century – the future of nuclear weapons and the future of Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia

2425. Defense Monitor: “Up, Up and Away” The Cost of National Missile Defense

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
What moves faster than an intercontinental missile, leaps over rational scientific and diplomatic arguments, and defies the pull of fiscal constraints more surely than gravity governs the universe? With apologies to Superman for using his motto, the answer is the cost of the National Missile Defense (NMD) system that the Administration and Congress seem intent on developing and deploying by 2005 and maintaining for at least another 25 years.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

2426. Borders, Territoriality and the Military in the Third Millennium

Author:
Peter van Ham
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Under the contradictory impact of globalization, regionalism and nationalism, the importance of borders is both declining and increasing—but above all it is changing. In some cases, it is declining and borders are becoming more permeable as regions integrate. In others, the salience of borders is growing as a contribution to national identity and as a protection of scarce natural resources. Both regional and national borders are, moreover, increasingly challenged by the rapid growth of activities and forces which are, by their very nature, non-territorial, tendentially rendering borders irrelevant. All these developments have military implications which are explored in the paper, including the changing role of border and territorial defence, transnational military threats to national security and 'non-territorial warfare'. A special emphasis is placed on the geopolitical implications of a defensive restructuring of the armed forces.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Globalization, Nationalism, Politics, and Sovereignty

2427. Civil-Military Relations in the Third Yugoslavia

Author:
Biljana Vankovska
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Any consideration of the Serbs' military traditions is inevitably a study of both the real and mythical aspects of their history. They are so intertwined that the very endeavour to distinguish between them is not only hardly possible but also counter-productive. The thesis that the 'boundaries between myth and history are not clear' can be proved in the Serbian case. At the same time, however, the inter-mixture of these two components easily leads to false conclusions and corrupt political decisions. From today's perspective Serbs are the most mythologised people in the world. Two opposed and equally biased perceptions are dominant: they are perceived as either 'heavenly people' or 'devil's seed'. The common notion in both interpretations is war. Yet this does not provide enough elements to form a clear picture. In the light of the most recent events (the 1999 NATO intervention in FR Yugoslavia) one may say that what the Serbs see as bravery, others interpret as belligerency. And vice versa - what Serbs see as an anti-heroic war, others see as humanitarian intervention. Given the crucial position of Serbia in the Yugoslav wars that have still not ceased, one may assume that fresh historical material for the evaluation of Serbian military traditions, myths and traumas is still growing. This very fact certainly contributes to the inability to analyse them objectively, but usually politically motivated blockades are made in order to prove one's righteousness.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Serbia and Balkans