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11. Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia's Industrial Giants

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Asia’s transformation in recent decades into a global manufacturing hub has fueled economic growth and lifted millions out of poverty. However, this success has also massively increased the region’s emissions footprint, making it essential for Asia’s industries to rapidly transition to green technologies and processes. “Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants” assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green hydrogen (H2) demand in Asia’s four largest economies: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The report, which was commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero and carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, highlights the role of manufacturers as agents of change in the Asia’s net zero transition. The study focuses on the role of green H2 in three priority industries — steel, ammonia, and methanol — under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis. Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the collective market potential of electrolyzers for these industries is expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The report offers a suite of recommendations for policymakers, industry players, investors, and think thanks aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.
Topic:
Industry, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

12. Winds of change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election

Author:
Susi Dennison, Mats Engström, and Carla Hobbs
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The next European Commission and Parliament are likely to place security and competitiveness at the centre of their quest for a more geopolitical Europe. With concerns about the costs of the green transition, growing trade tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU will probably find it much harder to make further progress on climate action over the next five years. These geopolitical developments – and the way the EU responds to them – will have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s trade and technology decisions, fossil fuel phase-out, and climate diplomacy. The case for climate action remains clear, including its role in European security and competitiveness. In this challenging context, climate progressives will have to deploy compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda during the EU’s next institutional cycle.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, European Parliament, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

13. Rebuild, Decarbonize, and Integrate: Ukraine, the EU, and the Road to a Net-Zero Energy Sector

Author:
Jacob Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
More than half of Ukraine’s power production capacity has been damaged by Russia since February 2022. Reconstruction is already underway, but to meet EU accession requirements, Ukraine will have to rapidly decarbonize as it rebuilds. As the frontline situation points to a longer war than was projected early on, uncertainties about Ukraine’s long-term economic path and prospects have inevitably increased. At the same time, noticeable political progress has been made given the EU’s agreement to start negotiations for full Ukrainian membership. This step provides the fighting Ukrainian people with a long-term perspective and a destination point as a prosperous, democratic, European market economy. Anchoring Ukraine’s economic future in the EU will have transformative implications for the country’s economy, not least its energy sector. That sector, which is still exposed to Russian military attacks, is now compelled to assimilate into the rapidly decarbonizing EU. More than half of Ukraine’s power production capacity has been damaged by Russia since February 2022 or is situated on territory now controlled by Russia. The Net Zero World Initiative (2023) estimated that 43% of nuclear, 68% of coal-fired, and 33% of combined heat and power generation was lost to the war as of mid-2023. Despite continuing attacks, more than two gigawatts (GW) of electricity production capacity were restored during 2023. Reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy sector is already underway despite the war. With it, the country’s energy transformation has begun. Yet, in March 2024, Russia returned to large- scale saturation missile attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including its large hydropower plants and thermal power stations, inflicting further long-term damage. Putin seeks to exploit the apparent drop in Ukrainian air defense efficiency as Western supplies of air interceptor missiles have grown scarcer. Military risk consequently continues to cloud the outlook for Ukraine’s energy production. It also reduces the interest of foreign and domestic investors in committing resources to the sector. Uncertainty plagues the prospects for Western public support for Ukraine, too. Despite the recent passage of a funding package, future US funding will remain hostage to domestic politics. In Europe, various veto players—led by Hungary—as well as other internal divisions pose an ongoing political challenge to the EU’s financial support for Kyiv. The scarcity of public and private investment funding sources for Ukraine stands in stark contrast to the level of ambition for the energy- sector transition inherent in Ukraine’s EU accession process. One of the major energy- sector challenges facing Ukraine will be the expectation in Brussels that Ukraine will either enter fully into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) or implement an ETS-aligned national carbon-pricing system of similar ambition. It will not be possible for the Ukrainian economy to be granted a prolonged transition period here, and—for instance—enjoy free carbon-emission credits for affected industries, when these same industries will have been partially or fully phased out in the rest of the EU at the time of Ukraine’s EU accession. While the EU ETS price is currently adjusting to the new post-2022 energy shock demand level (for example, prices have declined so far in 2024 to around €60–65/ton), the ETS auction price forward curve slopes upward. This indicates that carbon market participants continue to believe that EU carbon prices will rise during Ukraine’s EU accession process. Adapting the economy to the EU’s carbon price level will require urgent action on the part of the Ukrainian government as it prepares the long-term National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) that will lay out the country’s energy strategy for the rest of the 2020s. Certainly, Ukraine’s Environmental Protection Minister, Ruslan Strilets, displayed the necessary ambition when he spoke after the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai in late 2023. He reiterated earlier government statements from 2021 and committed Ukraine to launching a pilot emissions trading system in 2025 with a full launch in 2026. This would enable Ukraine’s entry into the ETS, and thus avoid negative effects of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for Ukrainian exports. This is a timetable that necessitates immediate and sizable climate investments in Ukraine. Ukraine has further committed itself in recent months to a significant scaling up of its already large nuclear power-generation capacity. The Ukrainian government has signed memoranda of understanding aiming at the construction of up to nine new power units using Westinghouse AP1000 technology. Just as the accelerated introduction of carbon pricing in Ukraine will be costly, construction of new nuclear power units, even if located at one of Ukraine’s existing nuclear plant facilities, will require large sums of capital investment upfront. The issue of upfront costs will similarly weigh on the broader issue of reconstruction of Ukraine, as more energy- efficient buildings will only gradually earn back the higher building and materials costs through lower long-term energy consumption. Ukraine must be applauded for aiming to seize the opportunity to rebuild its energy sector and integrate it with the EU as quickly as possible. This follows the recommendations of several expert groups, including GMF’s earlier (2023) report on this issue, which called for rapid Ukrainian adoption of carbon pricing and highlighted the need to phase in EU-level building codes expeditiously. This paper will focus on the implications for both Ukraine and the EU of the Ukrainian government’s recent energy-sector choices. What do these plans require institutionally and financially to succeed, and how will they alter not only the Ukrainian but the entire EU energy sector in the process?
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

14. Decarbonisation and Compliance: Assessing the impact of the Climate Change Act on South Africa’s extractives industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The Climate Change Act establishes a regulatory framework for decarbonisation in South Africa’s extractives sector, aligning with Paris Agreement commitments. Key provisions include sectorspecific emissions reduction targets, carbon budgets, and mandatory monitoring and reporting. While enforcement issues and resource limitations exist, companies must prioritise emissions tracking and internal carbon pricing. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) imperatives already incentivise companies in this direction. Investors increasingly direct capital towards companies that demonstrate effective emissions management. Successful adaptation strategies and alignment with national goals are essential for companies to enhance sustainability and attract investment. Collaboration among stakeholders is critical for effectively implementing the Climate Change Act.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Compliance, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

15. Achieving Universal Energy Access in Africa amid Global Decarbonization

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran and Sophia Coste
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Africa is the most energy-deficient continent in the world, as it hosts 75 percent of the world’s population without access to electricity.[1] Universal access to electricity and clean cooking remains an elusive goal for most states in the region: in 2022, 600 million people lacked access to electricity on the continent, 98 percent of them located in sub-Saharan Africa.[2] There is an urgent need for intervention given Africa’s population of 1.4 billion is forecasted to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, which, when coupled with rising incomes and urbanization, will lead to a significant increase in energy demand.[3] This brief provides six evidence-based insights on Africa’s energy landscape before providing five recommendations on reaching universal energy access amid global decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa

16. Growth, Decarbonisation, Security: a Recipe for Strengthening the EU's Economic Condition

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik and Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, in their reports on the economic condition of the EU, urge the organisation to double down on its objectives formulated in recent years: stimulating growth in a manner consistent with climate policy and reducing dangerous economic dependencies. The most controversial issue is how the recommended measures will be financed. Their implementation also will require striking a balance between several priorities—not entirely compatible—both within EU economic policy and in relations with main economic partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe

17. Decarbonization alternatives for the maritime transport sector in Brazil: 2024

Author:
CEBRI
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
In the current context, where mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is a global priority, the maritime sector faces a significant challenge: meeting the growing demand for energy due to the increase in the transport of goods and people while working to reduce its carbon emissions. The central question is how to address these challenges in a way that is both technically feasible and economically efficient. This report, available in Portuguese, provides an update on the document “Decarbonization Alternatives for the Maritime Transport Sector in Brazil,” published in 2023. The main objective is to analyze possible actions for the decarbonization of the Brazilian maritime sector. The study examines the current state of maritime transport in Brazil and explores various options for emission reductions. Furthermore, the report identifies opportunities for collaboration between the maritime sectors of Brazil and Norway through a comparative analysis of initiatives implemented for decarbonization. This analysis is essential for understanding how Brazil can advance in adopting more sustainable practices and effectively contribute to the fight against climate change.
Topic:
Maritime, Transportation, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

18. Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Author:
Edoardo Campanella and Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits—avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen—gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as it is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.
Topic:
Climate Change, Populism, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Implementing Azerbaijan’s New Urban Agenda: The Case for Transformative Policymaking

Author:
Anna Soave
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We live in a time of profound and rapid transformation. Trends and multifaceted challenges that have been gradually evolving in the past decade appear to be converging towards radical changes in the urban realm, driven by global geopolitical shifts, cultural dynamism, uneven socio‑economic progress, the disruption of labor markets reshaped by the digital revolution, and emerging technological and scientific advancements. All these are, to make matters more even complex, topped by the drive to “go green” due to the increasing evidence of our overuse of finite natural resources and the vulnerability of our ecosystem to climate crisis, and thus to our own wellbeing. Azerbaijan’s comprehensive “Strategic Road Maps,” approved in 2016, set the basis for the country’s aspirations towards the sustainability and competitiveness of its economic structure through the development of the non‑oil sector and its human capital. The more recent policy and reform framework, titled “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio‑Economic Development,” which was endorsed in 2021, spells out clean‑cut priorities for the country aimed at stimulating the growth of its economy, fostering a dynamic, inclusive, and socially‑just society, promoting the balanced development of the regions, encouraging innovation and creativity, guiding the return of internally displaced people (IDPs) to their areas of origin in the liberated territories, and promoting decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Geopolitics, Urban, Cities, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

20. Decarbonising for competitiveness: four ways to reduce European energy prices

Author:
Conall Heussaff
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Energy prices are higher in the European Union than in most other industrialised economies, presenting a fundamental competitiveness challenge. The price disparity stems from the EU’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, contrasting with the United States, which is a net exporter of energy. In 2024, EU gas wholesale prices were on average nearly five times those in the US. Average EU industrial electricity prices were roughly two and a half times higher than in the US. The transition to clean, domestically generated energy is therefore essential to reduce European energy costs. Despite rapid decarbonisation of the power sector, fossil fuels remain vital for electricity generation and continue to significantly influence final consumer costs. Additional factors influencing final prices include the fixed costs of supporting renewables and maintaining and expanding the energy networks, and consumption taxes and levies. However, the ongoing energy transition is reshaping cost dynamics. Renewables, with fixed capital costs and no fuel requirements, are increasingly transforming the electricity sector. The electrification of heating, transport and other energy services further reduces fossil-fuel demand, shifting overall energy costs from variable fuel expenses to fixed capital investments. As the energy transition progresses, EU energy costs can be expected to fall, but how far they fall and how they are shared will depend on policy choices in four main areas. In the short term, policymakers must allocate system costs fairly across energy consumers. Medium-term policies should encourage demand flexibility in electricity to improve system efficiency. In the long-term, coordinated investment at EU level and deeper cross-border interconnection will drive down final costs for all consumers.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe