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71. Building Climate Resilience in Urban Informal Settlements through Data Co-production

Author:
Giulia Sofia Sarno
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Climate change is worsening the number, frequency and duration of natural hazards across the globe, making disaster risk reduction and resilience building among the most pressing challenges ahead. According to UN-Habitat, informal settlements are where the impacts of climate change are the most acute in urban areas and strengthening resilience in these neighbourhoods represents a very complex yet urgent challenge.[1] Today, urban areas are home to 56 per cent of the world’s population and this figure is projected to increase to 60 per cent by 2030 and 68 per cent by 2050, with 90 per cent of the growth by 2050 expected to occur in less developed economies.[2] In these countries, population growth and displacement (including climate-driven migrations) will lead to rapid and unplanned urbanisation forcing a growing number of people into informal settlements. Currently, one billion people live in informal settlements, mostly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and this figure is expected to grow to 3 billion in 2050.[3]
Topic:
Climate Change, Crisis Management, Informal Settlement, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

72. Leadership in police work applied to critical contexts: An integrative review and scientific mapping using VOSviewer and Google Trends tools

Author:
Lucius Paulo de Carvalho, Ana Paula Grillo Rodrigues, and Marcello Beckert Zappellini
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to identify cutting-edge studies on the phenomenon of leadership applied to police work, especially in critical contexts, based on an integrative literature review. The integrative review made it possible to survey publications on the subject in the Scopus, Web of Science, Ebsco Host, ScienceDirect, Core, and SciELO databases. Scientific mapping is complemented with the use of VOSviewer and Google Trends tools. The integrative review resulted in 15 studies that fit the research strategy, bringing different leadership approaches, such as instrumental, transformational, charismatic, consultative, ethical, authentic, military, destructive, and laissez-faire, through qualitative and/or quantitative studies. For bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, the research corpus was expanded to 63 articles, admitting documents that studied leadership with firefighters, military personnel, and police officers. The analysis showed almost no co-authorship link between the 129 authors. The co-occurrence analysis of keywords reveals that leadership strongly links with law enforcement, police, management, crisis management, emergency management, and decision-making, establishing a close relationship between these concepts and a semantic map that underlies the field of study. The analysis of trends by Google Trends in the science category indicates the stability of interest in the topic of leadership in the world. However, the theme of police leadership produced results close to zero. The findings reveal that few studies address leadership in police organisations, and even fewer if critical, dangerous contexts are examined. The trends analysed indicate that worldwide scientific interest in the subject remains low and the theme must be further explored.
Topic:
Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Police
Political Geography:
Global Focus

73. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:
Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Health Financing in Times of Multiple Crises: Analysis and Recommendations

Author:
Christoph Strupat, Pooja Balasubramanian, Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of health systems and highlights the need for renewed efforts to finance pandemic preparedness, prevention and response (PPR) mechanisms, and universal health coverage (UHC). Two lessons emerge from this global health challenge. First, it has shown that global problems need global solutions, as well as the agency of local and national actors to make them work, so it is recommended that public health be considered a global public good. This requires solidarity between rich and poor countries to attain a globally “highest attainable standard” for managing pandemics and other public health emergencies. The provision of such a global public good requires substantial public resources. Furthermore, the focus should not only be on preventing the spread of diseases but also on detecting and fighting infectious diseases at their source. The second lesson is that prevention is a good investment, as it costs less than remedial interventions at later stages. Health systems can be considered as the means by which health priorities, such as pandemic PPR and UHC, can be operationalised. Studies show that health systems that could effectively leverage both robust health security core capacities (e.g. laboratories) and fundamental UHC interventions (e.g. accessible health facilities) were often in a better position to protect their citizens against the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the landscape of health financing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), it becomes clear that during the COVID-19 pandemic there was a substantial increase in international health financing. However, continued high out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) in LMICs points to a structural imbalance in health financing, which is one of the major barriers for achieving SDG3. Further contribution from international development assistance and an increase in domestic government expenditure by LMICs through improved mobilisation of domestic resources is therefore impera-tive. Funding gaps to achieve PPR and UHC in LMICs are small in relation to the projected costs of a pandemic such as COVID-19. However, as global debt levels soar, fiscal spaces to close these funding gaps become smaller. The following policy options for governments and international development partners should be considered to protect and improve spending on health in times of shrinking fiscal spaces: reallocation within budgets towards health, better priority-setting of health financing, and greater use of debt-to-health swaps, health taxes and national health insurance schemes. Importantly, investment in health is critical not just for the health benefits, but also because of the positive socio-economic impacts that result, in excess of the level of investment. Improved well-being and health outcomes translate into higher productivity and income, with a benefit–cost ratio of nine for low-income countries and 20 for lower-middle income countries. Given the high rates of unemployment in many LMICs, investments that create jobs in the healthcare sector are also beneficial for other sectors. Evidence shows that for every healthcare professional job that is created, 3.4 jobs are created on average in other sectors. As a large proportion of healthcare workers is female, these new jobs can be an opportunity for young women, in particular, and can help to promote female empowerment and gender equality. Altogether, these long-term benefits affirm that investment in health can enable large spillover effects on the social and economic dimensions of sustainable development and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Finance, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

75. Naval rearmament, European perspectives

Author:
Nicolas Mazzucchi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The increase in international crises, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the continuing rhetoric of future Sino-American confrontation in the Indo-Pacific, are resulting in a period of profound geopolitical upheaval, with rising maritime and naval challenges. Several trends are thus interlinked, between the strengthening of the transatlantic nexus, the continuous increase in the importance of the Indo-Pacific and the wish for strategic rebalancing on the part of the countries of the South. Faced with these multiple challenges, underscored by an unprecedented trend in naval rearmament, the European Union is seeking a new strategic-military balance at sea. Between the strengthening of the European Union-NATO link, the resolve of member states to invest more in their naval assets and the need to work to defend and enforce respect for international law, the European Union must show determination and also support this effort to rearm. The various institutional frameworks, as well as cooperation formats, have meant that defence equipment projects have been developed in a more flexible way in recent years, notably with the progressive maturity of the European Defence Fund. Interoperability, joint operations and new capabilities are needed jointly, so that Europe can continue to play its part in the global naval game.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Navy, Maritime, Crisis Management, and Armament
Political Geography:
Europe

76. The European institutions dealing with crises

Author:
Charles Fries
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It is often said, and rightly so, that Europe only moves forward under the effect of crises. It is only in dramatic circumstances that the European Union manages to make real progress in terms of its integration. We saw this, for example, with the financial crisis of 2008 or, more recently, the Covid pandemic when, in 2020, for the first time, the 27 Member States agreed to pool their debts to revive their economies[1]. The war in Ukraine provides a new tragic illustration of this. The return of war to European territory has already changed Europe: - by bringing to an end an overly idealised - some would say naïve - vision of international relations in which, thanks to trade and economic interdependence, the instincts of conquest and domination would spontaneously diminish due to the virtues of trade: this war has shown that it was high time to reduce our vulnerabilities with regard to Russian energy and our excessive dependency on the Chinese market! - by bringing back to the fore the conventional high-intensity conflict between states, combined more and more with hybrid threats (such as the instrumentalization of migrant and refugee flows, disinformation and cyber-attacks) whereas, since the end of the Cold War, we thought we had to carry out mainly expeditionary-type interventions, far from Europe, and to face terrorist attacks. - by pushing Europeans to defend an international order, more than ever before, based on rules and multilateral cooperation - stemming from the United Nations Charter - in the face of powers that openly contest it, nostalgic for their imperial past and adept at the sole use of force. Even before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell, had emphasised the extent to which Europe was in danger. In his view, if the European Union still wanted to count on the international scene, it had to overcome its timidity, face up to the world as it was and not as we had dreamed it would be, set itself the ambition of becoming a real geopolitical player and equip itself with the tools to speak the "language of power". Russia's invasion of Ukraine has amplified and accelerated this new awareness. The spectacular decisions taken by several Member States, which would have been inconceivable before 24 February 2022, bear witness to this: Sweden and Finland's applications to join NATO, the referendum in Denmark allowing this country to join the Union's Common Security and Defence Policy - CSDP - (after 30 years of "opt-out") or the announcement of a €100 billion increase in defence spending by the German Chancellor. The war in Ukraine has therefore been a stark reminder of the need for Member States, in an increasingly dangerous and unpredictable strategic environment, to increase their military budgets and stand together.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Institutions, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

77. The advantages and uncertainties of gas in Europe's energy transition

Author:
Clémence Pèlegrin
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
During the high-level conference organised in Paris in September, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) hailed the speed with which the European Union has freed itself from its energy dependence on Russia. According to the three institutions, the task now will be to consolidate and perpetuate this autonomy, which was achieved so quickly and to the surprise of many observers. The IEA also recalled the staggering amounts of annual investment needed to implement the energy transition, and the budgetary efforts required by the European Union in this area, in reference to the commitment to devote at least 30% of its 2021-2027 budget to climate action. The Covid-19 pandemic had already disrupted European discourse on the energy transition, just a few months after Ursula von der Leyen's inaugural speech on the The European Green Deal in 2019 and the advent of a just transition in Europe. Despite the health context and strong political opposition in the Member States over the place to be given to the energy transition in regard to short-term economic recovery, the European Union has maintained the course of an ambitious energy transition and strengthened its intermediate objectives for 2030, (Fit for 55 - The EU's plan for a green transition - Consilium), with a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions). In February 2022, the war in Ukraine sparked a new energy crisis: faced with the risk of disruption to gas supplies, the need to simultaneously decarbonise the economy and the energy mix, once again became a political imperative for the European Union. Energy efficiency and the promotion of energy-saving policies were identified as necessary and complementary ways of securing the continent's gas supplies. At the heart of long-standing political debates in Europe, the future of gas is inevitably being shaped by a downward trend: even in the scenario of complete substitution of fossil gas by green gas, the decarbonisation scenarios in Europe all point to a reduction in the use of the latter by 2050. Structural effects, such as global warming and the resulting tendency for milder winters, and cyclical effects, such as the energy crisis and the recent rise in prices experienced by households, are already pointing to a decline in the demand for gas, as a result of efforts to economise or consumers switching from gas. However, gas continues to provide services to the European energy system, in particular to satisfy heating requirements and energy for cooking by producing electricity during peaks in demand, or in the industrial sector where its complete substitution is not yet possible. This article provides a summary of three of the main issues surrounding the future of gas in the European Union: changing energy dependency; competition between gas and other energies in the European energy mix; and the development of green gas and its political future in a context of electrification.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Gas, Crisis Management, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

78. Addressing Earthquake Risk in India

Author:
India International Centre (IIC)
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Earthquakes are among the major hazards in India. The areas vulnerable to earthquakes are the plate boundary regions, e.g., Himalaya, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, northeast India and some of the regions in plate interior, e.g., Kachchh. Unlike other hazards such as cyclones, tsunamis or floods, where forecasts for their likely arrival are made, earthquakes strike without any warning. The current scientific knowledge is not sufficient to predict earthquakes. Hence it is necessary to assess our vulnerability to impacts of earthquakes and ensure preparedness to mitigate their effects on society. The development of such resilience can certainly help to avoid disasters. This issue has to be addressed at three levels: a) earth system level or status of knowledge about earthquake generation processes and it’s hazard potential; b) social system level or response mechanism, role of government, private sector and nongovernment organisations, and infrastructure development; and c) human system level or consciousness, awareness and readiness of people towards an earthquake hazard. Today, in our country, monitoring of earthquakes, estimating earthquake parameters, and disseminating this information has become very efficient. All the earthquake monitoring systems have been networked to provide data in the shortest possible time. It is well known that earthquakes do not kill people; poorly designed and built buildings do. The building codes designed to minimise the impact of earthquakes depend on potential risks from hazards. Microzonation maps, useful in assessing seismic hazards and risk potential, seismic response of engineering structures and land-use planning maps, have been prepared for many cities. During the last two decades, the response mechanism has been made very efficient. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) along with the central and state governments have been provided necessary relief and rescue. Still, there are certain gaps and many questions to be addressed. a) Is there is a possibility of a large earthquake in Himalaya, especially in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, in the near future? If so, what actions do we need to take? b) How do we use our current understanding acquired through research in objective hazard assessment? What are the shortcomings, what should, can and needs to be done? c) How can microzonation maps be integrated in urban planning? What are the impediments? d) Are there any precursors to earthquakes? What is the status of precursor research in the country? e) Is early warning of earthquakes possible and can it be safely implemented? What is the current status of our knowledge about earthquake warning systems and their effectiveness? f) What are triggered earthquakes? What is the state of knowledge and can they be avoided? g) What is the status of the response mechanism (organisational strength) at the central, state and local levels? How effective is communication with people? h) What is the status for providing relief and rescue in an earthquake event? What are the preparations for providing medical care, shelter and food? i) What kind of public outreach programmes are required? How can we sensitise people, especially children? To discuss these issues and to provide possible solutions, a Workshop was organiaed on 12 April 2023 at the India International Centre, New Delhi. What follows are the presentations made by experts in the field
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Earthquake, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

79. How did Korea’s fiscal accounts fare during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
South Korea undertook a number of important fiscal steps in 2020-21 to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Key policies it adopted were common to most advanced economies, including transfers to support households, firms, and workers and increased resources for public health measures such as testing, tracing, quarantines, and vaccine rollouts. In terms of the increase in overall pandemic spending, Korea did as much as the typical advanced economy. Yet its fiscal deficit was lower than those of other advanced economies for reasons unrelated to the magnitude of its fiscal response. The authors find that Korea’s fiscal revenues rose more strongly than in most other advanced economies despite few discretionary changes to tax rates, reflecting strong revenues from asset-based taxes in an environment of rising asset prices. This serendipitous surge in revenues offset much of Korea’s pandemic-related increases in expenditures, keeping its fiscal deficit low. Korea’s GDP rose more strongly in 2020-21 than GDP in most other advanced economies, reflecting strong foreign demand for Korean exports and a better public health response, which minimized COVID mortality and necessitated fewer restrictions on mobility.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

80. Trust a few: natural disasters and the formation of trust in Africa

Author:
Robert Mackay, Astghik Mavisakalyan, and Yashar Tarverdi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Individuals are at their most mental plasticity in their impressionable years (ages 18–25 years) forming long-term attitudes and behaviours essential to functioning in a society, such as trust. In this paper we ask how exposure to natural disasters within the impressionable years may affect the formation of trust by matching data from over 1,000 disaster occurrences with data from 88,670 individuals across 36 African nations. Exploiting the frequency of disaster exposure across the impressionable years, we show that disaster exposure has a negative and significant association with generalized trust. Additionally, we show that disasters experienced during the impressionable years have an impact on other dimensions of interpersonal and institutional trust. Our findings are robust to a battery of tests and add to the evidence base on the lasting impacts of natural disasters on individuals and societies.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa