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221. Economic costs and benefits of accelerated COVID-19 vaccinations

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon, Steve Kamin, and John Kearns
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
COVID-19 vaccination programs are generally understood to be a prerequisite for a return to normalcy in our social and economic lives. Emergency measures to research, test, produce, and distribute vaccines have been expensive, but increases in GDP resulting from the vaccines are expected to exceed those costs by wide margins. Few studies have quantified the economic costs and benefits of different rates of COVID-19 vaccination, however. This Policy Brief focuses on developing such a quantitative assessment for the United States; the approach may be applied to other countries as well. Two illustrative scenarios support the conclusion that most plausible options to accelerate vaccinations would have economic benefits that far exceed their costs, in addition to their more important accomplishment of saving lives. This Policy Brief shows that if, for example, the United States had adopted a more aggressive policy in 2020 of unconditional contracts with vaccine producers, the up-front cost would have been higher but thousands of lives would have been saved and economic growth would have been stronger. Instead, the federal government conditioned its contracts on the vaccines’ being proven safe and effective. The projections presented in this analysis show that even if unconditional contracts led to support for vaccines that failed the phase III trial and ultimately were not used, the cost would have been worth it.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

222. Prospects for the Reconstruction of Lebanon

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the end of March, Lebanese President Michel Aoun rejected a proposal by designated Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri regarding the composition of the new government. The breakdown of the negotiations shows that despite the deepening socio-economic crisis, political groups are unable to develop a common vision for the reconstruction of the state. The EU, UN, and the World Bank engaged in initiatives aiming to improve Lebanon’s situation. However, the political deadlock threatens the implementation of their co-created “3RF” reform plan.
Topic:
United Nations, World Bank, European Union, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

223. The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Crisis Management, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

224. The Rise of Insurgent Europeanism

Author:
Luke Cooper, Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz, Mary Kaldor, Niccolò Milanese, and Iavor Rangelov
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Civil society in Europe and its attitudes towards the European project have changed dramatically in the past decade of multiple crises. This study mapped, tracked and monitored developments in European civil society from 2018 to 2020, revealing the nature and implications of these changes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Insurgency, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe

225. Facing A Strategic Endgame? The US and the Ambiguities of Strategic Thinking

Author:
Christopher Coker
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The disastrous strategic failures by the US in the past 30 years can be explained by its failure to understand what strategy actually is and how ambiguity lies at its heart. As a result it has stumbled from crisis to crisis. There is no reason to think that it is any better placed under Biden to address the challenges of a ‘post-hegemonic’ world, argues Christopher Coker.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Crisis Management, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

226. Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19

Author:
Patricio Goldstein, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, and Luca Sartorio
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been for most countries the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of these policies on the virus’ transmission and death toll, for a panel of 152 countries, from the start of the pandemic through December 31, 2020. We find that lockdowns tend to significantly reduce the spread of the virus and the number of related deaths. We also show that this benign impact declines over time: after four months of strict lockdown, NPIs have a significantly weaker contribution in terms of their effect in reducing COVID-19 related fatalities. Part of the fading effect of quarantines could be attributed to an increasing non-compliance with mobility restrictions, as reflected in our estimates of a declining effect of lockdowns on measures of actual mobility. However, we additionally find that a reduction in de facto mobility also exhibits a diminishing effect on health outcomes, which suggests that lockdown fatigues may have introduced broader hurdles to containment policies.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Public Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

227. A Collapsing World?

Author:
György Schöpflin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Editor’s Note: American Diplomacy Journal asked several foreign policy commentators to address the significance of growing chaos in many parts of the world, as failed and failing states are increasingly unable to perform the fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state. This is one of five articles looking at those concerns. Historically, the world always has been unstable. Colonialism, the Cold War and the Hyperpower decade (the 1990s) created an illusion of global stability. That moment has gone, hence strategies have to be reconfigured. Global connectivity, the autonomy of capital movement, the uneven spread of technology, the rise of resentful elites – resentful of the West’s hegemony – all combine to resist human rights, the democracy agenda, gender mainstreaming and much else dear to liberals. To complicate matters, two tiers of states have the capacity to resist liberalism. There are the civilisation states – China, Russia, India, which make up their own rules, and large regional powers each believed to be responsible for generating one percent of the world’s GDP. Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa are in this category. Japan is in a category of its own. Also relevant here is the economic success of non-liberal states as role models, Singapore, most obviously. This is very hard for the West to accept. The legacy of hegemony and empire live on, above all as a kind of low-grade civilising mission. Those who would thus be civilised do not take kindly to this at all. But they may be open to negotiation if treated with parity of esteem. Stability is not just a Western goal, though its definition can vary. The sense of superiority exists in the non-West just as much as in the West. There are non-Western civilising missions too.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Globalization, Political stability, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

228. American Leadership and a Global Offensive Against COVID

Author:
John Blaney and Christopher Datta
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
While the U.S. has made major advances against COVID, it is imperative that much more be done as quickly as possible to end a disease that threatens our health, our economy and our leadership in the world. We need to go on the offense world-wide and become the world’s arsenal for vaccines. Without such an offensive, it is only a matter of time before the virus mutates into a form that is resistant to our current vaccines. As we have seen repeatedly, no matter where it starts, a new variant always finds its way into communities everywhere. Only the United States is uniquely positioned to lead the world out of this crisis.
Topic:
Leadership, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

229. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise

Author:
Rachel Esplin Odell
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
Topic:
Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

230. Coups, Conflicts, and COVID-19 in Myanmar: Humanitarian Intervention and Responsibility to Protect in Intractable Crises

Author:
Adam Simpson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar is a complex country with an unlucky history that includes op- pressive British colonization, Japanese invasion during World War II followed by independence, the world’s longest-running civil wars, and disastrous military coups. The coup of 1962 resulted in half a century of authoritarian military rule.1 The most recent coup on 1 February 2021 reversed a decade of political and economic reforms, resulted in crimes against humanity, and removed any glimmer of hope for Myanmar’s future.2 The terrifying trauma of a third wave of COVID-19 in mid-2021, dominated by the Delta variant, left much of the country sick and gasping for breath.3
Topic:
Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, Crisis Management, Coup, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar