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161. The Realm of More or Less: Critical Infrastructure and Public Order Factors for Pandemic Strategy

Author:
William McAuley
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The critical infrastructure and public order dimensions of pandemic response provide subplots to the ends-ways-means calculations made by Alberta’s policymakers to supress and mitigate COVID-19. Commencing from a strategic studies perspective, key drivers of pandemic decision making that encroaching on the security sphere are explored. Security realm considerations are found to be interwoven three broad undertones, précised as a preappointed evidence problem, a Cynefin circumstance, and a collective-to-individual cognitive arc. Rather than being a report card on pandemic response strategies, sensitivity to the range and complexity of factors that decision-makers were forced to contend with is projected towards the discovery of some strategic principles of pandemic response. Paramount among these is an appreciation for understanding as being something beyond mere situational awareness. This is recognition of a particular knowledge and application problem that parallels military strategic theory and is heavily reliant on insight and foresight as foundations for complex decision making. Potential areas of focus for further strategic studies inquiry are presented, with a view to addressing indicators of concern relevant to longer-term pandemic recovery.
Topic:
Crisis Management, COVID-19, Critical Infrastructure, and Public Order
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

162. From the Great Influenza to COVID-19: Epidemics of Scale through a Historical Lens

Author:
Fedir Razumenko
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
COVID-19 has galvanized changes in the economy of patient-doctor relationships and technological interfaces across the healthcare system. A rapid adoption of technologies that were previously slow to take hold opened more diverse and accessible spaces for care. At the same time, some persistent barriers in pivoting to scientific-medical advances in managing the pandemic revealed stark inequities in both access to care and exposure to risk. Political and organizational responses to the crisis often excluded the perspectives of vulnerable groups bearing more burdens than others. Some patients and healthcare providers suffered in isolation, however these experiences have escaped public attention due to the fragmented Canadian health information infrastructure. The social meanings of and collective responses to the pandemic nationally are rooted in historical developments. Comparative analyses of epidemic crises along with their consequences have the potential to inform our critical evaluations of problem-solving approaches and policymaking when what we do not know about the issue exceeds what we know. This article demonstrates that historical analysis serves an important role in examining the complex interaction of social and biological forces that constitute epidemic disease. By linking the past and present of epidemic crises we can better understand how social and scientific-medical responses to epidemics shift following the epidemic experience. To be forewarned is to be forearmed acquires a definite meaning as historical contexts set a background for assessing new situations. The COVID-19 pandemic has not emerged out of thin air, so tracing its origin and development is simultaneously a scientific and an historical undertaking.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Epidemic
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and Global Focus

163. Welcome to the New Abnormal

Author:
Michael Miklaucic
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is the most globally disruptive event since the terrorist attack against the United States in 2001. Originating in China in late 2019 the disease rapidly spread throughout the international transportation network to every region and every country. Neither its velocity nor its magnitude were initially understood. In 2020 the entire world seemed to come to a standstill. International and even domestic travel came to an abrupt halt. Normally teeming cities were silenced. Streets, markets, and even schools were empty. The gravity of the pandemic was perceived differently in different countries, and at different times, and the subsequent disruption uneven. Each country responded in a unique way, though general response patterns are discernable. Importantly the pandemic revealed significant vulnerabilities caused by the juxtaposition of private sector globalization in the context of national governance. That is what this special issue of PRISM is about; the different perceptions and reactions to COVID-19 as people and governments experienced the disease, and their diverse understanding of its implications for national and international security.
Topic:
National Security, Global Security, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

164. Boko Haram Insurgency and Forced Displacement in North-East Nigeria: An Assessment of State Management Strategies

Author:
Luqman Saka and Ousman M. Bojang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This study explores the nature and dimension of forced displacement that emanate from the Boko Haram insurgency in North-East Nigeria and the nature of state management of the displacement crisis. The study adopts the qualitative research approach in the gathering and analysis of its data. Data for the study was sourced from key national policy documents on displacement in the North-East, media interviews on displacement and its management by state institutions/agencies, news articles, reports, editorials, commentaries and academic publications. Relying on these data sources, the study seeks to highlight the nature of state management of the displacement crisis arising from the Boko Haram campaigns of terror in North-East Nigeria, the successes that have been recorded and the challenges confronting state institutions, and communities impacted by the conflict as it relates to the management of the displacement crisis.
Topic:
Insurgency, Crisis Management, Boko Haram, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

165. Social mobilisations and climate emergency in the southern neighbourhood and Turkey

Author:
Itxaso Domínguez
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Climate change has become a global emergency. Like the vast majority of current global dynamics, it disproportionately affects the countries and communities of the Global South, including the countries of the southern Mediterranean basin both because of their location and their insufficient preparation. The implications of ongoing climate change were particularly acute throughout 2021 in the Middle East and North Africa (the so-called ‘MENA region’). The fires in the southern Mediterranean were just a one instance. This strong and increasingly evident impact of climate change comes on top of other uncertainties and contexts of tension and vulnerability of the population, whose human security is systematically threatened, and is even becoming a question of pure survival. In a little over 80 years, the landscapes that make up the region will be unrecognisable.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Crisis Management, and Social Mobilizations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

166. Answering Beijing’s Growing Assertiveness beyond the Senkakus: Balancing Japan-China Relations

Author:
Valerie Niquet
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
To Japanese authorities, there is no such thing as the “Senkaku question”. China is pursuing with increased assertiveness a strategy of coercion, using ambiguity and “grey zone” operations to put the onus of potential escalation on Tokyo.1 The vague and ambiguous nature of this strategic power play makes it all the more dangerous and complex. When Tokyo proclaims, with reason, that “the government continues to control and administer the territory by such means as patrolling and law enforcement,” it seeks to answer the permanent pressure that China exerts in the zone.2 However, the maintenance of the status quo, when China exerts an almost continuous pressure in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands and Japanese fishermen do not have access to part of Japan’s own national territory, poses other types of problems that the People’s Republic of China tries to exploit at the service of broader ambitions. It also poses a challenge in crisis management: how can the Japanese government be active and in control of situational developments, and not just reactive, without going as far as sparking a major incident in the East China Sea?
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

167. Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa -- Common Regional Challenges and National Approaches to Food Supply

Author:
Yuko Ido
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
In 2020, in the midst of a global coronavirus pandemic, food insecurity and crises became more serious worldwide. In October 2020, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its humanitarian assistance in conflict areas around the world. WFP Executive Director David Beasley said, "Food is the best vaccine." However, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and other countries continue, there have been concerns of serious hunger even before the coronavirus outbreak. In addition to conflicts, the region is regarded as one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which is considered to have been one of the factors in these conflicts. This short paper intends to offer an overview of the common challenges faced in pursuing food security in the MENA region and discuss their prospects.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

168. Impact of Institutions in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters

Author:
Diego A. Diaz and Cristian Larroulet
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The number and impact of natural disasters are increasing because of climate change and more people living in urban areas (Sanderson and Sharma 2016). The mechanism is simple, at least when considering climatic events: higher temperatures lead to higher rates of water evaporation, which increases the chance of flooding events (Wallace et al. 2014; IPCC 2001). The number of hot days has increased and the number of cold days has decreased in land areas, with model projections indicating that extreme precipitation events will continue to increase, resulting in more floods and landslides. At the same time, mid‐​continental areas will get dryer, which will increase the chance of droughts and wildfires (Van Aalst 2006). The course of action taken by humanity in the next decades will likely play a pivotal role since extreme differences in projections are expected if global temperatures rise 2°C in comparison to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels (Allen et al. 2019). What are the economic impacts of natural disasters? This question has been addressed to a large extent in the literature, but it still does not have a conclusive response. The seemingly natural reasoning that destruction cannot lead to a net benefit for society was explained almost two centuries ago by Bastiat (1850) in his famous broken window fallacy. A shopkeeper’s son, Bastiat relates, breaks a pane of glass in his father’s store. The father, angry due to the boy’s careless action, is offered consolation by the spectators, who claim that the event is positive for the economy since it provides labor to glaziers. While Bastiat acknowledges that the accident brings trade to the glazier since the shopkeeper has to replace the window, regarding the event as wealth‐​increasing conveys a narrow perspective. The shopkeeper ends up poorer since he cannot spend the same money elsewhere, and if the boy had not broken the window, then the labor and other materials that were used to repair the damage would have been used elsewhere, potentially making the tangible wealth of the community grow.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Institutions, and Urban
Political Geography:
Global Focus

169. The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India’s Competition with China

Author:
Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The still-unresolved Ladakh crisis has created a new strategic reality for India, marked by renewed political hostility with China, and an increased militarisation of the Line of Actual Control. This new strategic reality imposes unequal costs on India and China. India is likely to defer much-needed military modernisation and maritime expansion into the Indian Ocean — which would impair its ability to compete strategically with China. In contrast, China incurred only marginal material costs; it was probably more concerned with the prospect of continued deterioration in its relationship with India. Even that cost was more threatened rather than realised, and largely reduced when the disengagement plan was agreed.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Strategic Competition, Militarization, and Disengagement
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

170. Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way

Author:
Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There is a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington on a tighter embrace of Taiwan, which may soon become a stronger implied US commitment to go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion. Taiwan matters to US security and the regional order, and the United States should continue to make clear that aggression is unacceptable. But those advocating a stronger US security commitment exaggerate the strategic consequences of a successful Chinese invasion. The stakes are not so high as to warrant an unqualified US pledge to go to war. American decision-makers, like their forebears confronting the seeming threat of communism in Indochina, may be trapping themselves into an unnecessarily stark conception of the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It would be irresponsible for the United States to leave itself no option in the event of Chinese aggression other than war. But nor should Washington abandon Taiwan. There is a prudent middle way: the United States should act as armourer, but not guarantor. It should help prepare Taiwan to defend itself, to raise costs against aggression, and develop means of punishing China with non-military tools.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America