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1231. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Annapolis and After

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The process that will be launched shortly at Annapolis may not quite be do-or-die for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process but at the very least it is do-or-barely-survive. Positively, a U.S. administration that neglected Middle East peacemaking since taking office appears committed to an intensive effort: it has persuaded both sides to agree to negotiate final status issues – no mean feat after years of diplomatic paralysis and violent conflict. But pitfalls are equally impressive. The meeting, like the process it aims to spawn, occurs in a highly politicised context, with sharp divisions in the Palestinian and Israeli camps. These will make it hard to reach agreement and to sell it to both constituencies and, for the foreseeable future, virtually impossible to implement. Moreover, failure of the negotiations could discredit both leaderships, while further undermining faith in diplomacy and the twostate solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1232. Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
General Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in Pakistan on 3 November 2007. He suspended the constitution, sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and removed other judges of that court who declared his act illegal. Police immediately began arresting lawyers, politicians and human rights activists. Independent television channels were taken off the air and reporting restrictions imposed. Thousands have since been jailed, journalists threatened and protests by lawyers and others suppressed. Replacing dissenting judges with hand-picked appointees, and ruling by decree, Musharraf's objective is to retain personal power by gaining judicial approval for martial law, followed by the creation of a democratic façade through rigged elections. The international community should demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the rule of law and the legitimate judiciary, the release of political prisoners and the appointment of an impartial caretaker government to oversee free and fair elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

1233. Guinea: Change on Hold

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Dix mois après le déclenchement d'un mouvement de révolte populaire contre le régime du président Lansana Conté, au pouvoir depuis 23 ans, et sept mois après la formation d'un nouveau gouvernement, la Guinée est toujours dans une incertitude totale quant à son avenir immédiat. L'état de grâce dont a bénéficié le Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté, celui qui devait conduire le « changement » exigé par le peuple, fut de courte durée. Les fissures au sein du mouvement collectif qui a ébranlé le régime au début de l'année risquent de favoriser une reconquête du pouvoir par le clan présidentiel. Pour éviter tout retour de la violence, le Premier ministre doit impérativement convaincre les citoyens guinéens de sa détermination à oeuvrer en faveur d'une véritable transition démocratique et a besoin de recevoir à cet effet un soutien actif de la Communauté économique des États d'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO) et des partenaires extérieurs, de même que de la France et des États-Unis qui ont des liens de coopération avec l'armée.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

1234. Sri Lanka: Sinhala Nationalism and the Elusive Southern Consensus

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sinhala nationalism, long an obstacle to the resolution of Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict, is again driving political developments on the island. Nationalist parties, opposed to any significant devolution of power to Tamil areas of the north and east and to negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, help set President Mahinda Rajapaksa's agenda. The government takes a hardline stance, responding in part to opposition to the flawed 2002-2006 ceasefire and peace process. Would-be peacemakers need to better understand Sinhala nationalism, which is too often dismissed as merely irrational and racist. With little likelihood of a new formal peace process soon, the longterm challenges it poses to the conflict's resolution need to be addressed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

1235. Northern Uganda Peace Process: The Need to Maintain Momentum

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Ugandan government and the insurgent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) are moving in the right direction, but the core issues – justice, security and livelihoods – are still to be resolved and require difficult decisions, including on the fate of LRA leaders whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) has indicted. The 2 May 2007 agreement on comprehensive solutions to the conflict and the 29 June agreement on reconciliation and accountability revived momentum for the year-old talks in the southern Sudan town of Juba. Rebel elements in southern Sudan moved to the LRA's jungle hideout near Garamba National Park in Congo in May and June, thus expanding the peace process' major achievement: more security for millions of civilians in northern Uganda and southern Sudan. Yet both recent agreements are incomplete and devoid of specifics. Both parties' commitment to a deal remains questionable. The international community needs to help the mediators by creating more leverage to push the peace process forward, including by presenting the LRA with a credible back-up military threat.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Juba

1236. Nuclear Weapons: The Challenges Ahead

Author:
Christine Wing
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Questions related to nuclear weapons are highly contested in the international arena—including the question of how these weapons constitute a challenge to human and international security. Does the challenge exist mainly in the incorporation of these weapons into military doctrines, or in the possibility that more states and/or terrorists will acquire nuclear capabilities? Have nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence prevented major wars, or are they ultimately destabilizing—or could both be true?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and War

1237. Promoting Group Justice: Fiscal Policies in Post-Conflict Countries

Author:
Frances Stewart, Graham Brown, and Alex Cobham
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Evidence suggests that economic inequalities – particularly “horizontal inequalities” among groups defined by ethnic, racial, linguistic, regional, and religious lines – can generate social tensions and fuel violent conflict. Well-designed fiscal policies can help build a sustainable peace by working to reduce these inequalities. This paper reviews some challenges raised by analyzing the impacts of tax and expenditure policies on inequality in post-conflict settings, and makes recommendations for incorporating distributional effects into fiscal policy making.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Debt, Political Economy, and Poverty

1238. From Beirut to Baghdad?

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Late last summer, I was looking for photos to illustrate an article on the influx of European peacekeepers into Lebanon. Amid the standard shots of armoured cars, one image was distinctly different. It showed a group of blue-helmeted troops striding purposefully up a beach – and being completely ignored by a nonchalant sunbather.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon

1239. Options for Revenue Generation in Post Conflict Environments

Author:
Michael Carnahan
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
This paper advances five proposals for policies to improve revenue generation in post-conflict environments. In the aftermath of violent conflict there often is a gap between demands for the restoration of basic public goods and services, including jobs and security, and governmental capacity to generate revenue to meet these pressing needs. Improved revenue generation is a key task for building both a sustainable state and a durable peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and Economics

1240. Peacekeeping in Sudan: The Dynamics of Protection, Partnerships and Inclusive Politics

Author:
Ian Johnstone and Alhaji M.S. Bah
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The inter-related conflicts and peace processes in Sudan present a monumental peacekeeping challenge. The protracted crisis in Darfur has put the African Union – and the broader international community -- to a severe test. Plans for a hybrid African Union-United Nations operation there continue, but Khartoum remains opposed. Meanwhile, implementation of the north-south peace agreement is faltering, with the UN mission struggling to keep it on track in the face of indifference from both parties and frequent hostility from the north.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan