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1. A Return to US Casualty Aversion: The 9/11 Wars as Aberrations

Author:
John Mueller
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Impelled by an overwhelming desire to hunt down those who were responsible for the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States launched military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, where it toppled regimes that had little or nothing to do with 9/11. There has been a tendency to see these exercises as misguided elements of a coherent plan to establish a liberal world order or to apply liberal hegemony. However, the warring of the post–9/11 period has been a glaring, extended, and highly consequential aberration. During the quarter century before that, the United States pursued a foreign policy that was far more casualty averse. Over the past decade, the country has moved back to—and appears poised to expand on—that tradition after its exhausting 9/11–induced military ventures that ran such high costs for so few benefits. Moreover, public opinion in the United States is not messianic or in constant search of hegemony or of monsters abroad to destroy. As part of its move back to a more limited military approach, the United States developed—or further developed—a strategy called “by, with, and through” that was particularly evident in its successful military campaign from 2014 to 2019 against the Islamic State. In this, the United States worked with local forces by providing advice, supplies, and intelligence, and by carrying out air strikes while the locals were expected to take almost all of the casualties. Although this approach is hardly new, it seems to have a future and is currently being applied in the war in Ukraine. It might also be applied to deal with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, 9/11, War on Terror, Casualties, and Military
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. Opportunities and Pitfalls in Practical Translation of Youth Inclusivity for Sustainable Peacebuilding in Africa

Author:
Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
The share of Africa’s youth in the world is expected to increase to a staggering 42 percent by 2030 and is projected to continue to grow throughout the remainder of the 21st century, more than doubling from current levels by 2055. Data on direct conflict casualties suggests that more than 90 percent of all deaths occur among young adult males. Today, some 50 percent of the 1.4 billion people living in countries impacted by crises and fragility are under the age of 20. The Security Council has recognized that an estimated 408 million youth (ages 15-29) reside in settings affected by armed conflict or organized violence whereby 1 out of 4 youth globally are affected by armed conflict. These figures are gut-wrenching but indispensable for our understanding of peacebuilding in today’s age. With a global population of over 1.8 billion, young people— though disproportionally affected by armed conflict and organized violence—could potentially employ the unique capacity and ability to take on our planet’s most deep routed conflicts. Their inclusion and leadership are therefore imperative to the successful pursuit of peacebuilding.
Topic:
Population, Peacekeeping, Youth, Peace, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Human Cost of Post-9/11 Wars: Direct War Deaths in Major War Zones, Afghanistan and Pakistan (October 2001 – October 2019) Iraq (March 2003 – October 2019); Syria (September 2014-October 2019); Yemen (October 2002-October 2019); and Other

Author:
Neta C. Crawford and Catherine Lutz
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
This chart tallies direct deaths caused by war violence. It does not include indirect deaths, namely those caused by loss of access to food, water, and/or infrastructure, war-related disease, etc. The numbers included here are approximations based on the reporting of several original data sources.
Topic:
9/11, War on Terror, Casualties, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

4. The Human and Financial Costs of the Explosive Remnants of War in Afghanistan

Author:
Suzanne Fiederlein
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
tries in the world, even after thirty years of clearance operations supported extensively by the United Nations and a number of major donors, including the United States. Long after armed conflicts are over, explosive remnants of war continue to cause harm to unsuspecting civilians and cost governments millions of dollars to clear and neutralize. Landmines can remain a threat that affects the population living around them for decades to come. When calculating the costs of waging war, the post-conflict clearance of leftover weapons scattered about the battlefields generally is not included. These costs can last for generations; Belgium, for instance, continues to remove large quantities of explosive shells from its World War I battlefield sites one hundred years after the end of that conflict.4 In the case of a country like Afghanistan, where armed conflict has continued for decades, adding additional explosive ordnance to the landscape on an ongoing basis, the clearance task becomes doubly challenging. The need to remove ordnance is crucial when attempting to provide a secure environment for war-weary civilians and returning refugees and to rebuild infrastructure and create opportunities for economic development – all essential ingredients for establishing and maintaining a stable and effective nation state.
Topic:
War, Weapons, Civilians, Casualties, and Landmines
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

5. Has UN Peacekeeping Become More Deadly

Author:
Marina Henke
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
any practitioners believe that peacekeeping has become an increasingly dangerous undertaking in recent years. My research paper “Has UN Peacekeeping Become More Deadly? Analyzing Trends in UN Fatalities”, tries to get at the heart of this question. It examines trends in fatalities using a new dataset compiled by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). The dataset accounts for monthly fatalities by type of fatality (accident, malicious act, illness, and other causes), nationality of the deceased as well as personnel type for each UN operation worldwide during the time period of 1948 - June 2015. To assess trends, the paper merges this monthly fatality data with monthly deployment data and calculates fatality ratios (i.e., fatalities rates relative to deployment levels) by national contingent, mission, and globally (i.e., all UN missions combined). This is a novelty. All previous studies have worked with yearly deployment averages. As a result, the analysis of fatality trends presented in this paper constitutes the most detailed study of this phenomenon thus far.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. The Strategic Costs of Civilian Harm

Author:
Chris Kolenda and Chris Rogers
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
During the early years of the United States’ involvement in Afghanistan, the U.S. military was killing too many civilians and depriving too many others of basic rights and liberties. By 2008, nearly 40 percent of civilian deaths in Afghanistan resulted from U.S. military operations. The level of “civilian harm”—the military’s term for killing innocent civilians and causing major political, social, and economic disruption—was adversely impacting the United States’ efforts to defeat the Taliban and weakening the legitimacy of the U.S. and Afghan governments. The report, The Strategic Costs of Civilian Harm: Applying Lessons from Afghanistan to Current and Future Conflicts, examines how the U.S. military learned from its early mistakes in Afghanistan and applied lessons to mitigate civilian harm. In fact, starting in 2009, the U.S. military recognized its mistakes and started to understand the high strategic cost of civilian harm. The military’s changes led to a significant reduction in civilian deaths during the next few years. The report argues that the United States should develop a Uniform Policy on Civilian Protection. The new standards would apply to all U.S. military operations in current and future conflicts and, hopefully, better protect civilians caught in conflict.
Topic:
Human Rights, War, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, Conflict, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

7. The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:
Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results have strong policy implications; confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency; and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.
Topic:
War, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Information Age, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

8. After the Dead Are Counted: U.S. and Pakistani Responsibilities to Victims of Drone Strikes

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Over the past decade, U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan are estimated to have killed well over 2,000 individuals, including an unknown number of civilians. A new report from the Open Society Foundations urges the U.S. and Pakistani governments to properly investigate and provide redress, including compensation, to civilian victims of drone strikes. Based on investigations of 27 separate U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, and interviews with current and former U.S. and Pakistani officials, the report documents civilian casualties and analyzes the broader threats of militancy and military operations in areas affected by drones. Despite Pakistan’s strong public opposition to U.S. drone strikes, and the United States’ promises on transparency, neither government has addressed the losses suffered by civilians. The report concludes that the U.S. and Pakistani governments should create mechanisms to investigate civilian harm from drone strikes and provide compensation to victims.
Topic:
War, Military Affairs, Weapons, Drones, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

9. The Cost of Kill/Capture: Impact of the Night Raid Surge on Afghan Civilians

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This report from the Open Society Foundations examines how the recent, dramatic increase in night raids by international forces has affected Afghan civilians and fueled even deeper hostility towards such operations. Broader targeting strategies have put more civilians in harm’s way, as have mass, indiscriminate detentions of civilians, leaving Afghans feeling increasingly caught between the two sides of the conflict. Civilian casualties, detentions, cultural offense, property destruction, and lack of accountability continue to provoke popular and political blowback that risks seriously undermining relations with the Afghan government as well as the international community's long-term security and political goals. The Cost of Kill/Capture: Impact of the Night Raid Surge on Afghan Civilians recommends that international forces: 1) cease targeting noncombatants and the indiscriminate detention of civilians; 2) employ alternative detention methods and law enforcement tactics, particularly whenever detaining non-combatants; and 3) implement reforms to improve transparency and accountability over night raids operations.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Military Intervention, War on Terror, Accountability, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

10. The Trust Deficit: The Impact of Local Perceptions on Policy in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
This report from the Open Society Foundations highlights the erosion of Afghan confidence in international forces due to civilian casualties, wrongful and abusive detention operations, deteriorating security, and a lack of accountability. This distrust reflects a growing divide between the perceptions of the Western public and policymakers and those of Afghan citizens about the intentions and accomplishments of international forces in Afghanistan. The Trust Deficit: The Impact of Local Perceptions on Policy in Afghanistan recommends that the international community urgently address the underlying policies that are feeding these negative perceptions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, International Security, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan